Land use and land cover (LULC) change is one of the key driving elements responsible for altering the hydrology of a watershed. In this study, we investigated the spatio-temporal LULC changes between 2001 and 2018 and their impacts on the water balance of the Jhelum River Basin. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to analyze the impacts on water yield (WY) and evapotranspiration (ET). The model was calibrated and validated with discharge data between 1995 and 2005 and then simulated with different land use. The increase was observed in forest, settlement and water areas during the study period. At the catchment scale, we found that afforestation has reduced the WY and surface runoff, while enhanced the ET. Moreover, this change was more pronounced at the sub-basin scale. Some sub-basins, especially in the northern part of the study area, exhibited an increase in WY due to an increase in the snow cover area. Similarly, extremes land use scenarios also showed significant impact on water balance components. The basin WY has decreased by 38 mm/year and ET has increased about 36 mm/year. The findings of this study could guide the watershed manager in the development of sustainable LULC planning and water resources management.

Random Forest (RF) is a widely used machine learning algorithm for crop type mapping. RF’s variable importance aids in dimension reduction and identifying relevant multisource hyperspectral data. In this study, we examined spatial effects in a sequential backward feature elimination setting using RF variable importance in the example of a large-scale irrigation system in Punjab, Pakistan. We generated a reference classification with RF applied to 122 SAR and optical features from time series data of Sentinel‑1 and Sentinel‑2, respectively. We ranked features based on variable importance and iteratively repeated the classification by excluding the least important feature, assessing its agreement with the reference classification. McNemar’s test identified the critical point where feature reduction significantly affected the RF model’s predictions. Additionally, spatial assessment metrics were monitored at the pixel level, including spatial confidence (number of classifications agreeing with the reference map) and spatial instability (number of classes occurring during feature reduction). This process was repeated 10 times with ten distinct stratified random sampling splits, which showed similar variable rankings and critical points. In particular, VH SAR data was selected when cloud-free optical observations were unavailable. Omitting 80% of the features resulted in an insignificant loss of only 2% overall accuracy, while spatial confidence decreased by 5%. Moreover, the crop map at the critical point exhibited an increase in spatial instability from a single crop to 1.28. McNemar’s test and the spatial assessment metrics are recommended for optimized feature reduction benchmarks and identifying areas requiring additional ground data to improve the results.

Root zone soil moisture (RZSM) is crucial for agricultural water management and land surface processes. The 1 km soil water index (SWI) dataset from Copernicus Global Land services, with eight fixed characteristic time lengths (T), requires root zone depth optimization (T_opt) and is limited in use due to its low spatial resolution. To estimate RZSM at 100-m resolution, we integrate the depth specificity of SWI and employed random forest (RF) downscaling. Topographic synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical datasets were utilized to develop three RF models (RF1: SAR, RF2: optical, RF3: SAR + optical). At the DEMMIN experimental site in northeastern Germany, T_opt (in days) varies from 20 to 60 for depths of 10 to 30 cm, increasing to 100 for 40–60 cm. RF3 outperformed other models with 1 km test data. Following residual correction, all high-resolution predictions exhibited strong spatial accuracy (R ≥ 0.94). Both products (1 km and 100 m) agreed well with observed RZSM during summer but overestimated in winter. Mean R between observed RZSM and 1 km (100 m; RF1, RF2, and RF3) SWI ranges from 0.74 (0.67, 0.76, and 0.68) to 0.90 (0.88, 0.81, and 0.82), with the lowest and highest R achieved at 10 cm and 30 cm depths, respectively. The average RMSE using 1 km (100 m; RF1, RF2, and RF3) SWI increased from 2.20 Vol.% (2.28, 2.28, and 2.35) at 30 cm to 3.40 Vol.% (3.50, 3.70, and 3.60) at 60 cm. These negligible accuracy differences underpin the potential of the proposed method to estimate RZSM for precise local applications, e.g., irrigation management.

Drought is a continuous process in Thar Desert, Pakistan. The extent of this drought needs to be assessed for future land use and adaptation. The effect of previous drought on vegetation cover of the Thar region was studied, through combined use of drought indices and geographic information (GIS) techniques. Five years (2002, 2005, 2008, 2011 and 2014) were selected to analyze the drought conditions and land use pattern of the Thar region. The drought indices used in this study included the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI). Images of past drought were compared with post-drought images of our targeted area and land use maps were developed for spatio-temporal analysis. The results of the study revealed that vegetation in Thar showed an improving trend from 2002 to 2011 and then declined from 2011 to 2014. The rainfall occurred at a below average rate and SPI values for each year were calculated to be negative, indicating below average rainfall. This actual precipitation data was then compared with the data obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite and R²; Pearson correlation coefficients were also calculated. The R² values for the years 2002 and 2014 were 0.519 and 0.670 respectively. In the same manner, the Pearson correlation coefficient values for the years 2002 and 2014 were 0.721 and 0.867 respectively. The results showed the TRMM satellite’s over-estimation in calculating rainfall data. Further, the average temperature for the five years under study was analyzed by graphical representation and it was revealed that the temperature of Thar has increased by almost 1 °C during the last decade.

Water crises are becoming severe in recent times, further fueled by population increase and climate change. They result in complex and unsustainable water management. Spatial estimation of consumptive water use is vital for performance assessment of the irrigation system using Remote Sensing (RS). For this study, its estimation is done using the Soil Energy Balance Algorithm for Land (SEBAL) approach. Performance indicators including equity, adequacy, and reliability were worked out at various spatiotemporal scales. Moreover, optimization and sustainable use of water resources are not possible without knowing the factors mainly influencing consumptive water use of major crops. For that purpose, random forest regression modelling was employed using various sets of factors for site-specific, proximity, and cropping system. The results show that the system is underperforming both for Kharif (i.e., summer) and Rabi (i.e., winter) seasons. Performance indicators highlight poor water distribution in the system, a shortage of water supply, and unreliability. The results are relatively good for Rabi as compared to Kharif, with an overall poor situation for both seasons. Factors importance varies for different crops. Overall, distance from canal, road density, canal density, and farm approachability are the most important factors for explaining consumptive water use. Auditing of consumptive water use shows the potential for resource optimization through on-farm water management by the targeted approach. The results are based on the present situation without considering future changes in canal water supply and consumptive water use under climate change.