Anthropogenic climate change is altering the state of worldwide fire regimes, including by increasing the number of days per year when vegetation is dry enough to burn. Indices representing the percent moisture content of dead fine fuels as derived from meteorological data have been used to assess geographic patterns and temporal trends in vegetation flammability. To date, this approach has assumed a single flammability threshold, typically between 8 and 12%, controlling fire potential regardless of the vegetation type or climate domain. Here we use remotely sensed burnt area products and a common fire weather index calculated from global meteorological reanalysis data to identify and describe geographic variation in fuel moisture as a flammability threshold. This geospatial analysis identified a wide range of flammability thresholds associated with fire activity across 772 ecoregions, often well above or below the commonly used range of values. Many boreal and temperate forests, for example, can ignite and sustain wildfires with higher estimated fuel moisture than previously identified; Mediterranean forests, in contrast, tend to sustain fires with consistently low estimated fuel moisture. Statistical modelling showed that flammability thresholds derived from burnt area are primarily driven by climatological variables, particularly precipitation and temperature. Our analysis also identified complex associations between vegetation structure, fuel types, and climatic conditions highlighting the complexity in vegetation–climate–fire relationships globally. Our study provides a critical, necessary step in understanding and describing global pyrogeography and tracking changes in spatial and temporal fire activity.

A neglected dimension of the fire regime concept is fire patchiness. Habitat mosaics that emerge from the grain of burned and unburned patches (pyrodiversity) are critical for the persistence of a diverse range of plant and animal species. This issue is of particular importance in frequently burned tropical Eucalyptus savannas, where coarse fire mosaics have been hypothesized to have caused the recent drastic population declines of small mammals. Satellites routinely used for fire mapping in these systems are unable to accurately map fine-grained fire mosaics, frustrating our ability to determine whether declines in biodiversity are associated with local pyrodiversity. To advance this problem, we have developed a novel method (we call ‘double-differenced dNBR’) that combines the infrequent (c. 16 days) detailed spatial resolution Landsat with daily coarse scale coverage of MODIS and VIIRS to map pyrodiversity in the savannas of Kakadu National Park. We used seasonal Landsat mosaics and differenced normalized burn ratio (dNBR) to define burned areas, with a modification to dNBR that subtracts long-term average dNBR to increase contrast. Our results show this approach is effective in mapping fine-scale fire mosaics in the homogenous lowland savannas, although inappropriate for nearby heterogenous landscapes. Comparison of this methods to other fire metrics (e.g., area burned, seasonality) based on Landsat and MODIS imagery suggest this method is likely accurate and better at quantifying fine-scale patchiness of fire, albeit it demands detailed field validation.

A neglected dimension of the fire regime concept is fire patchiness. Habitat mosaics that emerge from the grain of burned and unburned patches (pyrodiversity) are critical for the persistence of a diverse range of plant and animal species. This issue is of particular importance in frequently burned tropical Eucalyptus savannas, where coarse fire mosaics have been hypothesized to have caused the recent drastic population declines of small mammals. Satellites routinely used for fire mapping in these systems are unable to accurately map fine-grained fire mosaics, frustrating our ability to determine whether declines in biodiversity are associated with local pyrodiversity. To advance this problem, we have developed a novel method (we call ‘double-differenced dNBR’) that combines the infrequent (c. bi-monthly) detailed spatial resolution Landsat with daily coarse scale coverage of MODIS and VIIRS to map pyrodiversity in the savannas of Kakadu National Park. We used seasonal Landsat mosaics and differenced Normalized Burn Ratio (dNBR) to define burned areas, with a modification to dNBR that subtracts long-term average dNBR to increase contrast. Our results show this approach is effective in mapping fine-scale fire mosaics in the homogenous lowland savannas, although inappropriate for nearby heterogenous landscapes. Comparison of this methods to other fire metrics (e.g., area burned, seasonality) based on Landsat and MODIS imagery suggest this method is likely accurate and better at quantifying fine-scale patchiness of fire, albeit it demands detailed field validation.