Purpose Pathogenic variants affecting MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 cause Lynch syndrome and result in different but imprecisely known cancer risks. This study aimed to provide age and organ-specific cancer risks according to gene and gender and to determine survival after cancer. Methods We conducted an international, multicenter prospective observational study using independent test and validation cohorts of carriers of class 4 or class 5 variants. After validation the cohorts were merged providing 6350 participants and 51,646 follow-up years. Results There were 1808 prospectively observed cancers. Pathogenic MLH1 and MSH2 variants caused high penetrance dominant cancer syndromes sharing similar colorectal, endometrial, and ovarian cancer risks, but older MSH2 carriers had higher risk of cancers of the upper urinary tract, upper gastrointestinal tract, brain, and particularly prostate. Pathogenic MSH6 variants caused a sex-limited trait with high endometrial cancer risk but only modestly increased colorectal cancer risk in both genders. We did not demonstrate a significantly increased cancer risk in carriers of pathogenic PMS2 variants. Ten-year crude survival was over 80% following colon, endometrial, or ovarian cancer. Conclusion Management guidelines for Lynch syndrome may require revision in light of these different gene and gender-specific risks and the good prognosis for the most commonly associated cancers.

Background: Most patients with path_MMR gene variants (Lynch syndrome (LS)) now survive both their first and subsequent cancers, resulting in a growing number of older patients with LS for whom limited information exists with respect to cancer risk and survival.Objective and design: This observational, international, multicentre study aimed to determine prospectively observed incidences of cancers and survival in path_MMR carriers up to 75 years of age.Results: 3119 patients were followed for a total of 24 475 years. Cumulative incidences at 75 years (risks) for colorectal cancer were 46%, 43% and 15% in path_MLH1, path_MSH2 and path_MSH6 carriers; for endometrial cancer 43%, 57% and 46%; for ovarian cancer 10%, 17% and 13%; for upper gastrointestinal (gastric, duodenal, bile duct or pancreatic) cancers 21%, 10% and 7%; for urinary tract cancers 8%, 25% and 11%; for prostate cancer 17%, 32% and 18%; and for brain tumours 1%, 5% and 1%, respectively. Ovarian cancer occurred mainly premenopausally. By contrast, upper gastrointestinal, urinary tract and prostate cancers occurred predominantly at older ages. Overall 5-year survival for prostate cancer was 100%, urinary bladder 93%, ureter 85%, duodenum 67%, stomach 61%, bile duct 29%, brain 22% and pancreas 0%. Path_PMS2 carriers had lower risk for cancer.Conclusion: Carriers of different path_MMR variants exhibit distinct patterns of cancer risk and survival as they age. Risk estimates for counselling and planning of surveillance and treatment should be tailored to each patient’s age, gender and path_MMR variant. We have updated our open-access website www.lscarisk.org to facilitate this.

Objective: Estimates of cancer risk and the effects of surveillance in Lynch syndrome have been subject to bias, partly through reliance on retrospective studies. We sought to establish more robust estimates in patients undergoing prospective cancer surveillance. Design: We undertook a multicentre study of patients carrying Lynch syndrome-associated mutations affecting MLH1 , MSH2 , MSH6 or PMS2 . Standardised information on surveillance, cancers and outcomes were collated in an Oracle relational database and analysed by age, sex and mutated gene. Results: 1942 mutation carriers without previous cancer had follow-up including colonoscopic surveillance for 13 782 observation years. 314 patients developed cancer, mostly colorectal (n=151), endometrial (n=72) and ovarian (n=19). Cancers were detected from 25 years onwards in MLH1 and MSH2 mutation carriers, and from about 40 years in MSH6 and PMS2 carriers. Among first cancer detected in each patient the colorectal cancer cumulative incidences at 70 years by gene were 46%, 35%, 20% and 10% for MLH1, MSH2, MSH6 and PMS2 mutation carriers, respectively. The equivalent cumulative incidences for endometrial cancer were 34%, 51%, 49% and 24%; and for ovarian cancer 11%, 15%, 0% and 0%. Ten-year crude survival was 87% after any cancer, 91% if the first cancer was colorectal, 98% if endometrial and 89% if ovarian. Conclusions: The four Lynch syndrome-associated genes had different penetrance and expression. Colorectal cancer occurred frequently despite colonoscopic surveillance but resulted in few deaths. Using our data, a website has been established at http://LScarisk.org enabling calculation of cumulative cancer risks as an aid to genetic counselling in Lynch syndrome.

Lynch syndrome is associated with an increased risk of colorectal cancer and with a broader spectrum of cancers, especially endometrial cancer. In 2011, our group reported long-term cancer outcomes (mean follow-up 55·7 months [SD 31·4]) for participants with Lynch syndrome enrolled into a randomised trial of daily aspirin versus placebo. This report completes the planned 10-year follow-up to allow a longer-term assessment of the effect of taking regular aspirin in this high-risk population. In the double-blind, randomised CAPP2 trial, 861 patients from 43 international centres worldwide (707 [82%] from Europe, 112 [13%] from Australasia, 38 [4%] from Africa, and four [<1%] from The Americas) with Lynch syndrome were randomly assigned to receive 600 mg aspirin daily or placebo. Cancer outcomes were monitored for at least 10 years from recruitment with English, Finnish, and Welsh participants being monitored for up to 20 years. The primary endpoint was development of colorectal cancer. Analysis was by intention to treat and per protocol. The trial is registered with the ISRCTN registry, number ISRCTN59521990. Between January, 1999, and March, 2005, 937 eligible patients with Lynch syndrome, mean age 45 years, commenced treatment, of whom 861 agreed to be randomly assigned to the aspirin group or placebo; 427 (50%) participants received aspirin and 434 (50%) placebo. Participants were followed for a mean of 10 years approximating 8500 person-years. 40 (9%) of 427 participants who received aspirin developed colorectal cancer compared with 58 (13%) of 434 who received placebo. Intention-to-treat Cox proportional hazards analysis revealed a significantly reduced hazard ratio (HR) of 0·65 (95% CI 0·43-0·97; p=0·035) for aspirin versus placebo. Negative binomial regression to account for multiple primary events gave an incidence rate ratio of 0·58 (0·39-0·87; p=0·0085). Per-protocol analyses restricted to 509 who achieved 2 years' intervention gave an HR of 0·56 (0·34-0·91; p=0·019) and an incidence rate ratio of 0·50 (0·31-0·82; p=0·0057). Non-colorectal Lynch syndrome cancers were reported in 36 participants who received aspirin and 36 participants who received placebo. Intention-to-treat and per-protocol analyses showed no effect. For all Lynch syndrome cancers combined, the intention-to-treat analysis did not reach significance but per-protocol analysis showed significantly reduced overall risk for the aspirin group (HR=0·63, 0·43-0·92; p=0·018). Adverse events during the intervention phase between aspirin and placebo groups were similar, and no significant difference in compliance between intervention groups was observed for participants with complete intervention phase data; details reported previously. The case for prevention of colorectal cancer with aspirin in Lynch syndrome is supported by our results. Cancer Research UK, European Union, MRC, NIHR, Bayer Pharma AG, Barbour Foundation.

Background: Lynch syndrome is the most common genetic predisposition for hereditary cancer but remains underdiagnosed. Large prospective observational studies have recently increased understanding of the effectiveness of colonoscopic surveillance and the heterogeneity of cancer risk between genotypes. The need for gene- and gender-specific guidelines has been acknowledged. Methods: The European Hereditary Tumour Group (EHTG) and European Society of Coloproctology (ESCP) developed a multidisciplinary working group consisting of surgeons, clinical and molecular geneticists, pathologists, epidemiologists, gastroenterologists, and patient representation to conduct a graded evidence review. The previous Mallorca guideline format was used to revise the clinical guidance. Consensus for the guidance statements was acquired by three Delphi voting rounds. Results: Recommendations for clinical and molecular identification of Lynch syndrome, surgical and endoscopic management of Lynch syndrome-associated colorectal cancer, and preventive measures for cancer were produced. The emphasis was on surgical and gastroenterological aspects of the cancer spectrum. Manchester consensus guidelines for gynaecological management were endorsed. Executive and layperson summaries were provided. Conclusion: The recommendations from the EHTG and ESCP for identification of patients with Lynch syndrome, colorectal surveillance, surgical management of colorectal cancer, lifestyle and chemoprevention in Lynch syndrome that reached a consensus (at least 80 per cent) are presented.

Objective: To assess the relationship between Alzheimer disease (AD)–related pathologic changes in frontal cortical brain biopsy and AD biomarkers in ventricular vs lumbar CSF, and to evaluate the relationships of AD biomarkers in CSF and cortical biopsy with the final clinical diagnosis of AD. Methods: In 182 patients with presumed normal pressure hydrocephalus (152 with known APOE carrier status), Aβ plaques and tau in the cortical brain biopsies were correlated with the ventricular and lumbar CSF Aβ42, total tau, and p-tau levels measured by ELISA. In a median follow-up of 2.0 years, 51 patients developed AD dementia. Results: The patients with Aβ plaques in the cortical biopsy had lower (p = 0.009) CSF Aβ42 levels than those with no Aβ plaques. The patients with tau in the cortical biopsy had lower (p = 0.014) Aβ42 but higher (p = 0.015) p-tau 181 in CSF as compared to those with no tau in the cortical biopsy. The patients with amyloid + tau + biopsies had the lowest Aβ42 and highest tau and p-tau 181 levels in CSF. The Aβ42 levels were lower and the tau and p-tau 181 higher in the ventricular vs corresponding lumbar CSF samples. In multivariate analysis, the presence of cortical Aβ was independently predicted by the APOE ϵ4 carrier status and age but not by CSF Aβ42 or tau levels. Conclusions: Amyloid plaques and hyperphosphorylated tau in cortical brain biopsies are reflected by low CSF Aβ42 and high CSF tau and p-tau levels, respectively.