Permeability, thermal conductivity, and porosity distribution are key factors to control groundwater flow and heat transport in porous media. The parameter estimation procedure is widely used to understand flow and transport behavior in geothermal systems. As recognized in most studies, this parameter estimation relies on the quality and quantity of spatiotemporal measurements. With the typically limited resources for conducting field investigations, understanding suitable sampling strategies is crucial before applying a model to site-specific conditions. This study aims to quantify uncertainties in hydro-thermal properties using Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS) and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). A synthetic two-dimensional aquifer profile is used to evaluate the accuracy of the estimated hydrothermal properties in accounting for variations in groundwater temperature resulting from cross-hole pumping and injection events. Based on the calculations of the mean absolute and squared errors for estimated hydrothermal properties, EnKF generally leads to more accurate estimates of hydrothermal properties than MCS. Furthermore, EnKF strikes a balance between accuracy and efficiency, making it the most effective method. This study highlights the strengths and limitations of each method, providing valuable insights for selecting appropriate inversion techniques to quantify uncertainties in geothermal systems. Additionally, well spacing and open screen locations are recommended to obtain optimal thermal energy in the geothermal system

Arctic regions are experiencing accelerated environmental change, yet integrated assessments of terrain-scale responses remain limited. This study quantifies the spatial-temporal variability of glaciers, shorelines, and outwash plains in Kaffiøyra, Svalbard, Norway, over four decades (1985–2023) using cross-evaluated Landsat and Sentinel imagery. Our results reveal systematic retreat across all eight glaciers (R² = 0.83–0.96), with tidewater glaciers experiencing substantially greater terminus area loss (62.8% and 72.1%) compared to land-terminating glaciers (34.5–69.0%). Coastal changes were highly variable: erosion (up to −3.2 m/yr) was most pronounced on shores exposed to southwesterly summer waves, while significant accretion (+13.0 m/yr) occurred near the tidewater glacier terminus. The insignificant outwash changes (−6.4% to +2.7%) despite substantial land-terminating glacier retreat indicate these systems respond to different controls. A moderate negative correlation between glacier terminus area and summer temperatures (r = −0.55 to −0.69) enabled a simple projection model. Diagnostic projections to 2020–2039 showed that both downscaled climate models and extrapolated local data overestimated retreat. However, extrapolated local data proved more accurate, with its projection gap averaging 11% for land-terminating and 46% for tidewater glaciers. The study provides crucial insights into Arctic terrain behaviors, highlighting complex and divergent responses. These findings emphasize the need for enhanced localized monitoring systems through ongoing high-resolution image surveys and planned modeling to understand accelerating polar environmental changes.

The study offers an in-depth investigation of the impact of climate conditions on various terrain features in the Kaffiøyra area, southwest Svalbard, focusing on the changes of shorelines, glacier termini, and outwash areas. We utilized cost-effective, consistent remote sensing data and GIS techniques to analyze historical long-term changes in these terrain features, evaluated the effects of temperature variations on glacier retreat, and developed a predictive model for future glacier area changes based on temperature data from climate change scenarios and the ground observation station near the site. The results demonstrated a range of responses in shoreline stability and changes across different zones in the study site. Based on the predefined baseline, the glacier-shorelines (tidewater glacier) exhibit significant erosion, with the averaged rates varying from -64.7 to + 9.2 m/yr. However, the land-shorelines show relatively stable, with changes ranging from -2.2 to +3.7 m/yr, and the outwash areas exhibited minor increases of less than 10% as compared to the data obtained in 1985. The analysis of seven glacier termini indicated a general reduction in the glacier area; notably, Aavatsmarkbreen, a tidewater glacier, retained only 32% of its original size by 2023. The land glaciers such as Waldemarbreen, Irenebreen, Elisebreen, Eivindbreen, Andreasbreen, and Oliverbreen, preserve 54.8%, 61.3%, 65.0%, 74.0%, 55.5%, and 43.7% of their areas, respectively. A marked negative linear correlation between temperature and remaining glacier areas was observed, enabling the prediction of future glacier variations under various climate conditions. The study outlines the evolution of terrain features in Kaffiøyra in nearly 40 years. Results show the relative stability of land-shorelines, significant glacier retreats in response to warming temperatures, and slight growth in outwash areas. The study highlights the critical need for robust land monitoring systems that enhance our understanding and enable effective decision-making through predictive modeling of climate impacts.