The arid region of northwest China is an extremely fragile area of natural ecology. With population growth and continuous expansion of urban scale, the ecosystem in the arid region is facing greater pressure. Scientific assessment and prediction of the value of ecosystem services in arid areas are necessary and of great significance for the sustainable development of regional ecological environments. In this paper, a parametric optimal geographic model is used to analyze the driving factors of ESV spatial dispersion in Jiuquan City as an example. The PLUS model is also used to simulate the spatial and temporal evolution of ESV in 2035 under the scenarios of natural development, urban development, water constraints and ecological conservation, based on the historical change pattern of land use and ecosystem service value (ESV). The results showed that from 1980 to 2020, the plowland, water and construction land area in Jiuquan City showed a significant increasing trend, while other land use types showed a decreasing trend. ESV has increased from CNY 139.394 billion to CNY 142.642 billion. The expansion of plowland and water area was the main reason for the increase in ESV. Elevation, temperature, and precipitation are the main driving factors of spatial differentiation of ESV in Jiuquan City. The interaction of natural and human factors enhances the explanatory power of each factor to the spatial differentiation of ESV. In 2035, the ESV in four development scenarios in Jiuquan City showed an upward trend, and the ESV of the ecological protection scenario was the highest, which was the best mode to realize a sustainable development in Jiuquan City in the future. This study can provide scientific basis and decision-making basis for Jiuquan City to formulate sustainable development strategy.

At the intersection of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau and Loess Plateau, topographic factors often profoundly affect the evolution of the regional land use pattern and ecological risk. This paper takes the Lanzhou–Xining urban agglomeration as the research area, divides the topographic gradient based on the topographic index, analyzes the characteristics of the land use pattern using the land use transfer matrix model, dynamic attitude and state degree model, and analyzes the influence of topographic factors on the land use pattern using the distribution model. At the same time, an ecological risk evaluation index system is constructed, the spatial principal component method is used to evaluate the ecological risk, and the influence of topography on the regional ecological risk is discussed. The results show that from 1990 to 2020, the area of construction land in the study area increased by 1045.807 km² and the area of ecological land increased by 587.41 km², with the most significant changes occurring in the attitude and state of construction land and unused land. It is found that cultivated land, water area and construction land are dominant in low terrain, while woodland, grassland and unused land are mainly distributed in middle and high terrain. During the study period, the ecological risk in the midwest and southeast of the Lanzhou–Xining urban agglomeration decreased, while the ecological risk in the northeast increased first and then decreased, although generally there was an increasing trend. Moran’s I varied from 0.942 to 0.955 from 1990 to 2020, indicating that the ecological risk index in the study area was highly positively correlated in space, while the spatial aggregation effect of the ecological risk was obvious. Low and moderately low risk areas are mainly distributed in high terrain, while high and moderately high risk areas are dominant in low terrain. The research results of this paper can make a lot of sense for ecological protection, land resource utilization and sustainable development of the Lanzhou–Xining urban agglomeration.

Ecological security evaluation and land space governance are effective ways to ensure regional ecological security and realize sustainable development. This study evaluated the ecological security status at the raster scale and conducted research on the restoration and governance of the national territory, with the aim of implementing accurate restoration, reducing ecological restoration costs, and increasing ecological restoration benefits. Taking the typical arid inland river Shule River Basin as an example, this study selected evaluation factors from production, living, and ecological perspectives, obtained the influencing factors of regional ecological security by spatial principal component analysis, and calculated the ecological security index on the grid scale of production, life and ecological space. The macro-scale national parks, ecological protection red line and other realistic constraints are combined with the grid-scale ecological security evaluation results to achieve accurate land space restoration and governance. The results show that the ecological space accounts for 79.23%, and the production space only accounts for 7.47%, which is similar to other inland river basins in arid areas. The study found that per capita GDP and distance to the road have a significant impact on the ecological security of the study area from the perspectives of production and life, while distance to the water, vegetation coverage, and land cover have a significant impact on ecological security from the ecological perspective. Moderate, moderate low and low ecological security zones account for 72.09% of the total area of the basin, indicating that the ecological security guarantee ability of the Shule River Basin is low. The ecological security level of the living space was the lowest, and the ecological security pattern of the basin area as a whole presented a “higher in the north and south and lower in the middle” characteristic. The land restoration and governance of the Shule River Basin area was divided into five types of ecological control, ecological conservation, ecological enhancement, ecological restoration and ecological management, of which the ecological control area accounted for as much as 35.86%, implying that ecological security in the Shule River Basin has attracted sufficient attention from the government. It is considered that the management of production and living space is more difficult, complex and important, and the proportion of space is relatively small, so it is necessary to focus on the comprehensive management project of ecological protection and restoration. However, the ecological endowment conditions of ecological space in the Shule River Basin are relatively poor, and the distribution area is vast, so natural restoration should be given priority, supplemented by artificial restoration. This study provides a reference for regional ecological security evaluation, ecological civilization construction, and national ecological security research and practice.