Accurate forecasting of the properties of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) as they approach Earth is now recognized as an important strategic objective for both NOAA and NASA. The time of arrival of such events is a key parameter, one that had been anticipated to be relatively straightforward to constrain. In this study, we analyze forecasts submitted to the Community Coordinated Modeling Center at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center over the last 6 years to answer the following questions: (1) How well do these models forecast the arrival time of CME‐driven shocks? (2) What are the uncertainties associated with these forecasts? (3) Which model(s) perform best? (4) Have the models become more accurate during the past 6 years? We analyze all forecasts made by 32 models from 2013 through mid‐2018, and additionally focus on 28 events, all of which were forecasted by six models. We find that the models are generally able to predict CME‐shock arrival times—in an average sense—to within ±10 hr, but with standard deviations often exceeding 20 hr. The best performers, on the other hand, maintained a mean error (bias) of −1 hr, a mean absolute error of 13 hr, and a precision (standard deviation) of 15 hr. Finally, there is no evidence that the forecasts have become more accurate during this interval. We discuss the intrinsic simplifications of the various models analyzed, the limitations of this investigation, and suggest possible paths to improve these forecasts in the future.

As an important index of solar activity, the 10.7-cm solar radio flux (F_10.7) can indicate changes in the solar EUV radiation, which plays an important role in the relationship between the Sun and the Earth. Therefore, it is valuable to study and forecast F_10.7. In this study, the long short-term memory (LSTM) method in machine learning is used to predict the daily value of F_10.7. The F_10.7 series from 1947 to 2019 are used. Among them, the data during 1947–1995 are adopted as the training dataset, and the data during 1996–2019 (solar cycles 23 and 24) are adopted as the test dataset. The fourfold cross validation method is used to group the training set for multiple validations. We find that the root mean square error (RMSE) of the prediction results is only 6.20~6.35 sfu, and the correlation coefficient (R) is as high as 0.9883~0.9889. The overall prediction accuracy of the LSTM method is equivalent to those of the widely used autoregressive (AR) and backpropagation neural network (BP) models. Especially for 2-day and 3-day forecasts, the LSTM model is slightly better. All this demonstrates the potentiality of the LSTM method in the real-time forecasting of F_10.7 in future.

We present a detailed study of an Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (full-halo CME) event that happened on 2011 February 15, making use of white-light observations by three coronagraphs and radio observations by Wind/WAVES. We applied three different methods to reconstruct the propagation direction and traveling distance of the CME and its driven shock. We measured the kinematics of the CME leading edge from white-light images observed by Solar Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO) Aand B, tracked the CME-driven shock using the frequency drift observed by Wind/WAVES together with an interplanetary density model, and obtained the equivalent scattering centers of the CME by the polarization ratio (PR) method. For the first time, we applied the PR method to different features distinguished from LASCO/C2 polarimetric observations and calculated their projections onto white-light images observed by STEREO-A and STEREO-B. By combining the graduated cylindrical shell (GCS) forward modeling with the PR method, we proposed a new GCS-PR method to derive 3D parameters of a CME observed from a single perspective at Earth. Comparisons between different methods show a good degree of consistence in the derived 3D results.

A global, three-dimensional (3D) numerical simulation model has been employed to study the 3D morphology and kinematics of the large shock driven by the 2017 September 10 coronal mass ejection (CME). Based on actual solar observations, which include the photospheric magnetic field and the CME’s speed and source location, the simulation result is delicately tuned by matching with coronal polarized brightness observations and in situ solar-wind measurements at 1 au. The simulation reproduces well the shock’s shape and position in coronagraphic images. The shock’s physical parameters at 1 au are similar to those constrained from the observations, with the simulated transit time being nearly the same as the observed one. The simulation reveals that the shock around the backward direction keeps propagating away from the Sun, and despite its large extent, the shock cannot be seen as a spherical structure forming a 360° envelope around the Sun. Identified as a fast forward shock, the shock has a sharp velocity jump and a large density compression with a Mach number larger than one from the nose toward the lateral parts, consistent with a driven shock all across the front. Compared to the nose, the right flank of the shock has a weak compression ratio, but probably yields enhanced energetic particles for observers aligned with it. It follows that large CME-driven shocks have the potential to accelerate energetic particles over a wide longitudinal separation and are likely responsible for the production of these particles in the inner heliosphere.

This paper presents a study of a 2021 October 9 coronal mass ejection (CME) with multipoint imaging and in situ observations. We also simulate this CME from the Sun to Earth with a passive tracer to tag the CME’s motion. The coronagraphic images show that the CME is observed as a full halo by SOHO and as a partial halo by STEREO-A. The heliospheric images reveal that the propagation speed of the CME approaches about 1° hr⁻¹, suggesting a slow CME. With simulated results matching these observation results, the simulation discloses that as the CME ejects from the Sun out to interplanetary space, its global morphology is distorted from an ellipsoid to a concave shape owing to interactions with the bimodal solar wind. The cross section of the CME’s flux rope structure transforms from a circular shape into a flat one. As a result of the deflection, the propagation direction of the CME is far away from the Sun–Earth line. This means that the CME flank (or the ICME leg) likely arrives at both Solar Orbiter and the L1 point. From the CME’s eruption to 1 au, its volume and mass increase by about two orders and one order of magnitude, respectively. Its kinetic energy is about 100 times larger than its magnetic energy at 1 au. These results have important implications for our understanding of CMEs’ morphology, as well as their space weather impacts.