Drought is a complex hazard that has more adverse effects on agricultural production and economic development. Studying drought monitoring techniques and assessment methods can improve our ability to respond to natural disasters. Numerous drought indices deriving from meteorological or remote sensing data are focused mainly on monitoring single drought response factors such as soil or vegetation, and the ability to reflect comprehensive information on drought was poor. This study constructed a comprehensive drought-monitoring model considering the drought factors including precipitation, vegetation growth status, and soil moisture balance during the drought process for the Jing-Jin-Ji region, China. The comprehensive drought index of remote sensing (CDIR), a drought indicator deduced by the model, was composed of the vegetation condition index (VCI), the temperature condition index (TCI), and the precipitation condition index (PCI). The PCI was obtained from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite. The VCI and TCI were obtained from a moderate-resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS). In this study, a heavy drought process was accurately explored using the CDIR in the Jing-Jin-Ji region in 2016. Finally, a three-month scales standardized precipitation index (SPI-3), drought affected crop area, and standardized unit yield of wheat were used as validation to evaluate the accuracy of this model. The results showed that the CDIR is closely related to the SPI-3, as well as variations in the drought-affected crop area and standardized unit yield of crop. The correlation coefficient of the CDIR with SPI-3 was between 0.45 and 0.85. The correlation coefficient between the CDIR and drought affected crop was between −0.81 and −0.86. Moreover, the CDIR was positively correlated with the standardized unit yield of crop. It showed that the CDIR index is a decent indicator that can be used for integrated drought monitoring and that it can synthetically reflect meteorological and agricultural drought information.

In ecologically fragile and geomorphologically complex mountainous regions, ensuring a smooth transition from poverty alleviation to multidimensional sustainable rural development remains a key issue in regional governance. Focusing on the Qinba Mountains, a typical former contiguous poverty-stricken region in China covering 18 prefecture-level cities in six provinces, this study uses 2009–2023 prefecture-level panel data to examine the spatiotemporal evolution and driving mechanisms of coordinated rural revitalization. An integrated framework of “multi-dimensional evaluation–spatiotemporal tracking–attribution diagnosis” is developed by combining the improved AHP–entropy-weight TOPSIS method, the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, spatial Markov chains, spatial autocorrelation, and the Geodetector. The results show pronounced subsystem asynchrony. Livelihood and Well-being Security (U5) improves steadily, while Level of Industrial Development (U1), Civic Virtues and Cultural Vibrancy (U3), and Rural Governance (U4) also rise but with clear spatial differentiation; by contrast, Quality of Human Settlements (U2) fluctuates in stages under ecological fragility. Overall, the coupling coordination level advances from the Verge of Imbalance to Intermediate Coordination, yet the regional pattern remains uneven, with eastern basin cities leading and western deep mountainous cities lagging. State transitions display both policy responsiveness and path dependence: the probability of retaining the original state ranges from 50.0% to 90.5%; low-level neighborhoods reduce the upward transition probability to 25%, whereas medium-to-high-level neighborhoods raise the upward transition probability of low-level cities from 36.36% to 53.33%. Spatial dependence is also evident, with Global Moran’s I increasing, with fluctuations, from 0.331 in 2009 to 0.536 in 2023; high-value clusters extend along the Guanzhong Plain–Han River Valley corridor, while low-value clusters remain relatively locked in mountainous border areas. Driving mechanisms show clear stage-wise succession. At the single-factor level, the explanatory power of Road Network Density (F6) declines from 0.639 to 0.287, whereas Terrain Relief Amplitude (F1) becomes the dominant background constraint in the later stage (q = 0.772). Multi-factor interactions are generally enhanced. In particular, the traditional infrastructure-led pathway weakens markedly, with F1 ∩ F6 = 0.055 in 2023, while the interaction between terrain and consumer market vitality becomes dominant, with F1 ∩ F7 = 0.987 in 2023. On this basis, three major pathways are identified: government fiscal intervention and transportation accessibility improvement, capital agglomeration and market demand stimulation, and human–earth system adaptation and ecological value realization. These findings provide quantitative evidence for breaking spatial lock-in and improving cross-regional resource allocation in ecologically constrained mountainous regions.

Water-scarce river basins face the dual challenge of sustaining development progress while maintaining water resources carrying capacity (WRCC), yet city-scale evidence remains limited on how New Quality Productive Force (NQPF)-driven high-quality development reshapes WRCC through coupled coordination and development–pressure decoupling processes. Using a balanced panel of 15 cities in the Weihe River Basin (WRB) during 2014–2023, an integrated analytical framework was implemented by combining composite index evaluation (WRCC and the high-quality development index (HQDI)), the Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) model, Tapio decoupling diagnosis between HQDI and total water use (TWU), and logarithmic mean Divisia index (LMDI) decomposition. The results indicate that: (1) both the HQD index and WRCC exhibited sustained growth, with their CCD improving significantly from mild imbalance to primary coordination, while a distinct spatial pattern of “Guanzhong leading, northern Shaanxi improving, and eastern Gansu stabilizing” emerged; (2) the HQDI–WRCC linkage was further supported by pooled statistical tests and a two-way fixed effects specification with city-clustered robust standard errors, confirming a significant positive association (Pearson = 0.517, p < 0.01; Spearman = 0.183, p < 0.05) and a stable positive effect of HQDI on WRCC (β = 0.194, p = 0.0088); (3) Tapio results reveal an overall transition from earlier volatility toward a later-period regime dominated by Weak Decoupling (WD) and Strong Decoupling (SD), implying that development progress became less dependent on rising TWU, although pronounced inter-city heterogeneity persisted; (4) LMDI decomposition further identified water use intensity and industrial structure as primary inhibitors of water consumption, whereas the R&D scale effect increased nearly 60-fold, emerging as a major driver of water demand. This study provides a mechanistic basis for coordinating ecological protection and high-quality development under rigid water constraints in water-scarce basins.

The co-evolution of urban–rural spatial transformation and ecosystem services represents a key scientific issue for high-quality basin development and metropolitan ecological governance. As a core growth pole in the lower Yellow River Basin, the Jinan Metropolitan Area (JMA) faces the overlapping pressures of rapid urbanization and ecological constraints, making it an appropriate case for exploring the interactions between the urban–rural gradient and ecosystem service value (ESV). Based on multisource spatiotemporal datasets for 2000–2024, this study deploys a modified equivalent-factor method, a multidimensional urban–rural gradient model, and a geographic detector to investigate ESV dynamics, the evolution of the urban–rural gradient, and their coupling relationship at a 1 km × 1 km grid scale. The results show that: (1) Total ESV in the JMA increased slightly from 2000 to 2024, with pronounced spatial heterogeneity. High-ESV areas were distributed in the southern mountainous region and along the Yellow River, whereas low-ESV areas were mainly distributed across the northern plains and urban built-up areas. Forestland and water bodies provided the primary foundation for regional ESV stability. (2) Inner-suburban areas expanded rapidly and became the dominant urban–rural transition zone, while rural areas continued to contract. Urban areas exhibited both polarization and sprawl along transportation corridors. (3) The coupling coordination between ESV and the urban–rural gradient exhibited a “high-periphery, low-middle” spatial pattern and declined slightly over time. Land-use change, population density and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) serve as core driving factors, with nonlinear threshold effects; pairwise factor interactions exert stronger explanatory power than individual factors. This study advances the analytical framework for examining ESV in basin-metropolitan areas and provides a reference for integrated urban–rural development and ecological protection in similar regions.