Western North America (WNA) experienced an unprecedented heatwave from late June to early July 2021, which lies far outside the historical range. Based on the model outputs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6, we find that the likelihood of a heatwave over WNA similar to the 2021 one increases with global warming. Such a heatwave is projected to occur more frequently with increased extreme temperature and shortened return period. It means that a rare event in the current climate will be a more common event in a warmer climate, especially under a high‐emission scenario like the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways 585 (SSP5‐8.5). Moreover, we show a large expansion of areas over WNA that will break the 2021 record in the future with an increasing level of emission scenario. Nevertheless, some heatwave records west of the Rocky Mountains are still difficult to break, highlighting the specific extremity of the 2021 WNA heatwave.

Based on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) satellite observation and ERA5 re-analysis dataset, this paper studies the influence of the northwestward-propagating quasi-biweekly oscillation (QBWO) over the western North Pacific on cold surge rainfall (CSR) over Southeast Asia. Cold surges are the most important driver affecting Southeast Asian rainfall on a synoptic scale. The presence of the QBWO during phases 6–8, in which the associated active convection coupling with a cyclonic circulation reaches Southeast Asia, provides a favorable environment for the increase of CSR. The increase in CSR primarily occurs east of the Philippines, leading to a high likelihood of triggering extreme rainfall. The effects from the QBWO are independent of those from the active MJO phases over Southeast Asia. Additionally, cold surge activity could also be influenced by the QBWO. An examination of the QBWO and MJO indicates that the most preferred phases for the occurrence of cold surges are the time when phase 1 of the QBWO co-exists with phase 7 of the MJO or the time when phase 7 of the QBWO couples with phase 5 of the MJO. Accordingly, about 40% of the total cold surge days would fall in either combination.