Climate change predictions tied to Amazon deforestation scenarios are increasingly being used by government and non‐government organisations for near‐future planning applications. Despite incorporating a wide range of biophysical variables, these models neglect future scenarios of land use for adjoining regions, such as the Central Brazil Cerrado, which has been deforested by more than 50%. In this study, we investigate the impact of different Amazon and Central Brazil deforestation scenarios on the rainfall regime of the ‘arc‐of‐deforestation’ in Amazonia. We demonstrate that both Amazon and Cerrado deforestation contribute to an increase of the duration of the dry season in this region. Combining the effects of both scenarios, the dry season may increase from 5 months to 6 months, which may change the biosphere–atmosphere equilibrium in this region. This study demonstrates that the assessment of future Cerrado land use scenarios is also necessary to understand the future climate and ecosystem health of Amazonia. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

Deforestation on Amazonia and central Brazil Cerrado could change regional climate, possibly shifting forest equilibrium into a bioclimatic envelope typical of savannas. Although impacts of climate change induced by deforestation are likely to vary subregionally, the potential geographic variation of these effects and the thresholds of rainforest and Cerrado removal that will affect Amazonian bioclimatic equilibrium remain unknown. We evaluate the effects of deforestation scenarios of increasing severity on the bioclimatic equilibrium of Amazon subregions. Results indicate that subregional precipitation responds in three distinct ways to progressive deforestation: a near‐constant rate of reduction, a rapid drop for low deforestation levels, and a decrease after intermediate deforestation levels. Additionally, while inner forest regions remain inside rainforest bioclimatic envelope, outer forest regions may cross forest‐savanna bioclimatic threshold even at low deforestation levels. We argue that at least 90% of Amazonia and 40% of Cerrado should be sustained to avoid subregional bioclimatic savannization.

Western Bahia, part of a large Brazilian agricultural frontier, is located mainly in fragile, sandy soils in a tropical seasonal climate with dry winters, characteristics that facilitate soil carbon loss. This study evaluates whether rainfed and irrigated agriculture in Western Bahia were able to sequester carbon and re-establish the soil organic carbon content (SOCC) lost due to land use change. Between 2010 and 2018, a total of 5469 soil samples were collected in the 0.00–0.20 m soil layer from nine farms and were used to calculate the annual rate of SOCC variation. The most recent SOCC measured in plots where land use change occurred 20 years ago was compared with the SOCC measured in areas of native vegetation (Cerrado). Results showed that (i) irrigated sandy agricultural lands replenished SOCC to the level observed in native vegetation by 20 years after a land use change event and are still capturing carbon at a significant rate, (ii) clayey, rainfed agricultural lands also sequester carbon, but these soils are not representative of the region, and (iii) sandy, rainfed agricultural lands, the predominant soil type and management practice in Western Bahia, are not a sink of CO₂.