This paper presents the results of 39 years of observations conducted at the Chabyda station to monitor the thermal state of permafrost landscapes under current climatic warming. The analysis of long-term records from weather stations in the region has revealed one of the highest increasing trends in mean annual air temperature in northern Russia. The partitioning of the energy balance in different landscape units within the study area has been analyzed. Quantitative relationships in the long-term variability of ground thermal parameters, such as the ground temperature at the bottom of the active layer and seasonal thaw depth, have been established. The ground temperature dynamics within the depth of zero annual amplitude indicates that both warm and cold permafrost are thermally stable. The short-term variability of the snow accumulation regime is the main factor controlling the thermal state of the ground in permafrost landscapes. The depth of seasonal thaw is characterized by low interannual variability and exhibits little response to climate warming, with no statistically significant increasing or decreasing trend. The results of the ground thermal monitoring can be extended to similar landscapes in the region, providing a reliable basis for predicting heat transfer in natural, undisturbed landscapes.

The results of the 42-year monitoring of the thermal state of permafrost landscapes in modern climate warming conditions at the “Chabyda” observation station (Central Yakutia) are presented. We studied the evolution of the variability of soil thermal state parameters: the temperature of soils on the sole of the seasonally shallow layer and in the layer of annual heat rotations, and the depth of seasonal thawing. The long-term variability of the average annual soil temperature, experiencing significant interannual and short-term fluctuations, has a multidirectional trend, with warming dominating. The main factors regulating the thermal state of permafrost landscapes are the short-period fluctuations in the snow accumulation regime. Despite significant interannual fluctuations, the depth of seasonal thawing responded to climate warming with multidirectional trends, and its increase or decrease was statistically insignificant. We performed a statistical analysis of the observation time series revealing correlations between climate elements (air temperature, total precipitation, average winter snow depth, duration of winter and summer seasons) and relationships between soil temperature regime parameters (Т_ξ, Т₀, ξ) with climate elements. The results of these studies on the thermal state of soils can be applied to homogeneous landscapes in this region. They can also be used to model heat transfer processes in natural landscapes and develop hybrid intelligence methods for diagnosing the state of infrastructure facilities in the Far North based on high-performance computing systems.

By analyzing the last 50–60 years of climate changes in Arctic and Subarctic Yakutia, we have identified three distinct periods of climate development. The cold (1965–1987), pre-warming (1988–2004), and modern warming (2005–2023) periods are clearly identifiable. Yakutia’s Arctic and Subarctic regions have experienced mean annual air temperature increases of 2.5 °C and 2.2 °C, respectively, compared to the cold period. The thawing index rose by an average of 171–214 °C-days, while the freezing index dropped by an average of 564–702 °C-days. During the pre-warming period, all three characteristics show a minor increase in warmth. Global warming intensified between 2005 and 2023, resulting in elevated permafrost temperatures and a deeper active layer. Monitoring data from the Tiksi site show that warming has been increasing at different depths since the mid-2000s. As a result, the permafrost temperature increased by 1.7 °C at a depth of 10 m and by 1.1 °C at a depth of 30 m. Soil temperature measurements at meteorological stations and observations at CALM sites both confirm the warming of the permafrost. A permafrost–climatic zoning study was conducted in Arctic and Subarctic Yakutia. Analysis identified seven regions characterized by similar responses to modern global warming. These study results form the foundation for future research on global warming’s effects on permafrost and on how northern Yakutia’s environment and economy adapt to the changing climate.

This paper presents the results of long-term temperature monitoring at the Yakutsk and Zeleny Lug stations, which are experimental sites, for the thermal state of valley permafrost landscapes under the conditions of modern climate warming. An analysis of the long-term data from meteorological stations in the region clearly showed one of the highest trends of increase in the mean annual air temperature in the north of Russia. Here, we established quantitative regularities in the long-term variability of the ground temperature at the bottom of the active layer and at zero amplitude. The dynamics of the ground temperature of the layer of zero amplitude during climate warming indicate the thermal stability of permafrost. The main regulating factor of the thermal state of grounds in permafrost landscapes is short-term fluctuations in the regime of snow accumulation. Active layer thickness is characterized by low interannual variability, weak climate warming responses, and insignificant trends. The results of studies of the thermal regime of soils can be extended to the same types of valley landscapes in the Lena River, and are a reliable basis for predicting heat transfer in natural and disturbed landscapes.

Global climate has undergone significant changes in the past 50-60 years. The transition from stable climate conditions to current warming has significantly influenced permafrost landscapes and infrastructure in cold regions. Arctic and Subarctic landscapes had distinct reactions to these changes. The objective of this study is to analyze the regional aspects of climate and permafrost changes in Yakutia's Arctic and subarctic regions from the past 50-60 years. Our analysis focused on climate change patterns during different periods, including cold period, pre-warming, and modern warming. We analyzed data on mean annual air temperature, thawing and freezing indices, and precipitation. During these periods, we determined the reaction's characteristics in various landscape regions. The most significant impact on permafrost began in the mid-2000s, as our observations confirmed. Global warming directly causes permafrost temperature to rise, the active layer to thicken, and cryogenic processes to develop. The conducted research provides the information needed to study the effects of global warming on permafrost and adapt socio-economic conditions in northern Yakutia.