This paper presents the results of 39 years of observations conducted at the Chabyda station to monitor the thermal state of permafrost landscapes under current climatic warming. The analysis of long-term records from weather stations in the region has revealed one of the highest increasing trends in mean annual air temperature in northern Russia. The partitioning of the energy balance in different landscape units within the study area has been analyzed. Quantitative relationships in the long-term variability of ground thermal parameters, such as the ground temperature at the bottom of the active layer and seasonal thaw depth, have been established. The ground temperature dynamics within the depth of zero annual amplitude indicates that both warm and cold permafrost are thermally stable. The short-term variability of the snow accumulation regime is the main factor controlling the thermal state of the ground in permafrost landscapes. The depth of seasonal thaw is characterized by low interannual variability and exhibits little response to climate warming, with no statistically significant increasing or decreasing trend. The results of the ground thermal monitoring can be extended to similar landscapes in the region, providing a reliable basis for predicting heat transfer in natural, undisturbed landscapes.

Pipelines are critical infrastructure for Yakutia, transporting vital supplies to communities in this vast northern region. The pipeline routes in central Yakutia traverse areas of ice-rich permafrost that is sensitive to temperature changes. This study examined the thermal state of permafrost in undisturbed and disturbed settings along the Lena River to Mundulakh Reservoir water pipeline and the Mastakh to Yakutsk gas pipeline and considered the effects of climatic fluctuations and surface disturbances (forest removal and wildfire) over the monitoring periods of 28 and 18 years, respectively. The geocryological conditions in the study area, as well as the methods of permafrost thermal monitoring, are described. The observation results demonstrated significant increases in the mean annual ground temperature in the upper permafrost layers, as well as in the active-layer thickness following fire and post-fire clearing. At some sites, progressive deepening of the active layer caused the formation of taliks and reached the top of massive ground ice, initiating permafrost degradation. The development of extreme ground temperatures in the layer of annual temperature fluctuations was analyzed according to the combination of seasonal and annual meteorological conditions and the type of anthropogenic impact. The research results can be extrapolated to similar anthropogenic landscapes.

The results of the 42-year monitoring of the thermal state of permafrost landscapes in modern climate warming conditions at the “Chabyda” observation station (Central Yakutia) are presented. We studied the evolution of the variability of soil thermal state parameters: the temperature of soils on the sole of the seasonally shallow layer and in the layer of annual heat rotations, and the depth of seasonal thawing. The long-term variability of the average annual soil temperature, experiencing significant interannual and short-term fluctuations, has a multidirectional trend, with warming dominating. The main factors regulating the thermal state of permafrost landscapes are the short-period fluctuations in the snow accumulation regime. Despite significant interannual fluctuations, the depth of seasonal thawing responded to climate warming with multidirectional trends, and its increase or decrease was statistically insignificant. We performed a statistical analysis of the observation time series revealing correlations between climate elements (air temperature, total precipitation, average winter snow depth, duration of winter and summer seasons) and relationships between soil temperature regime parameters (Т_ξ, Т₀, ξ) with climate elements. The results of these studies on the thermal state of soils can be applied to homogeneous landscapes in this region. They can also be used to model heat transfer processes in natural landscapes and develop hybrid intelligence methods for diagnosing the state of infrastructure facilities in the Far North based on high-performance computing systems.

This paper presents the results of long-term temperature monitoring at the Yakutsk and Zeleny Lug stations, which are experimental sites, for the thermal state of valley permafrost landscapes under the conditions of modern climate warming. An analysis of the long-term data from meteorological stations in the region clearly showed one of the highest trends of increase in the mean annual air temperature in the north of Russia. Here, we established quantitative regularities in the long-term variability of the ground temperature at the bottom of the active layer and at zero amplitude. The dynamics of the ground temperature of the layer of zero amplitude during climate warming indicate the thermal stability of permafrost. The main regulating factor of the thermal state of grounds in permafrost landscapes is short-term fluctuations in the regime of snow accumulation. Active layer thickness is characterized by low interannual variability, weak climate warming responses, and insignificant trends. The results of studies of the thermal regime of soils can be extended to the same types of valley landscapes in the Lena River, and are a reliable basis for predicting heat transfer in natural and disturbed landscapes.