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Julia Hansson
Department of Mechanics and Maritime Sciences, Chalmers University of Technology, SE-412 96, Gothenburg, Sweden

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Review
Published: 16 August 2021 in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
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Substitution of conventional jet fuel with low-to zero-carbon-emitting alternative aviation fuels is vital for meeting the climate targets for aviation. It is important to understand the technical, environmental, and economic performance of alternative aviation fuels and prospective engine and propulsion technologies for future aircraft. This study reviews alternative fuels and propulsion systems, focusing on costs and technical maturity, and presents conceptual aircraft designs for different aviation fuels. The cost review includes minimum jet fuel selling price (MJFSP) for alternative aviation fuels. Direct operating cost (DOC) is estimated based on the conceptual aircraft designs and the reviewed MJFSP. The DOCs for bio-jet fuel (5.0–9.2 US cent per passenger-kilometer (¢/PAX/km)), fossil and renewable liquefied hydrogen (5.9–10.1 and 8.1–23.9 ¢/PAX/km, respectively), and electro-methane and electro-jet fuel (5.6–16.7 and 9.2–23.7 ¢/PAX/km, respectively) are higher than for conventional jet fuel (3.9–4.8 ¢/PAX/km) and liquefied natural gas (4.2–5.2 ¢/PAX/km). Overall, DOC of renewable aviation fuels is 15–500 % higher than conventional jet fuels. Among the bio-jet fuels, hydroprocessed esters and fatty acids (23–310 $/GJ) and alcohol-to-jet (4–215 $/GJ) pathways offer the lowest MJFSPs. The implementation of alternative fuels in existing aircraft engines and the design and development of appropriate propulsion systems and aircraft are challenging. The overall cost is a key factor for future implementation. Bio-jet fuel is most promising in the near term while hydrogen and electrofuels in the long term. The level of carbon tax on fossil jet fuels needed for the latter options to be competitive depend on the hydrogen production cost.

ACS Style

Karna Dahal; Selma Brynolf; Carlos Xisto; Julia Hansson; Maria Grahn; Tomas Grönstedt; Mariliis Lehtveer. Techno-economic review of alternative fuels and propulsion systems for the aviation sector. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2021, 151, 111564 .

AMA Style

Karna Dahal, Selma Brynolf, Carlos Xisto, Julia Hansson, Maria Grahn, Tomas Grönstedt, Mariliis Lehtveer. Techno-economic review of alternative fuels and propulsion systems for the aviation sector. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2021; 151 ():111564.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Karna Dahal; Selma Brynolf; Carlos Xisto; Julia Hansson; Maria Grahn; Tomas Grönstedt; Mariliis Lehtveer. 2021. "Techno-economic review of alternative fuels and propulsion systems for the aviation sector." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 151, no. : 111564.

Journal article
Published: 30 April 2020 in Sustainability
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To reach the International Maritime Organization, IMO, vision of a 50% greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction by 2050, there is a need for action. Good decision support is needed for decisions on fuel and energy conversion systems due to the complexity. This paper aims to get an overview of the criteria types included in present assessments of future marine fuels, to evaluate these and to highlight the most important criteria. This is done using a literature review of selected scientific articles and reports and the authors’ own insights from assessing marine fuels. There are different views regarding the goal of fuel change, what fuel names to use as well as regarding the criteria to assess, which therefore vary in the literature. Quite a few articles and reports include a comparison of several alternative fuels. To promote a transition to fuels with significant GHG reduction potential, it is crucial to apply a life cycle perspective and to assess fuel options in a multicriteria perspective. The recommended minimum set of criteria to consider when evaluating future marine fuels differ somewhat between fuels that can be used in existing ships and fuels that can be used in new types of propulsion systems.

ACS Style

Karin Andersson; Selma Brynolf; Julia Hansson; Maria Grahn. Criteria and Decision Support for A Sustainable Choice of Alternative Marine Fuels. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3623 .

AMA Style

Karin Andersson, Selma Brynolf, Julia Hansson, Maria Grahn. Criteria and Decision Support for A Sustainable Choice of Alternative Marine Fuels. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (9):3623.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Karin Andersson; Selma Brynolf; Julia Hansson; Maria Grahn. 2020. "Criteria and Decision Support for A Sustainable Choice of Alternative Marine Fuels." Sustainability 12, no. 9: 3623.

Journal article
Published: 17 April 2020 in Sustainability
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To reduce the climate impact of shipping, the introduction of alternative fuels is required. There is a range of different marine fuel options but ammonia, a potential zero carbon fuel, has recently received a lot of attention. The purpose of this paper is to assess the prospects for ammonia as a future fuel for the shipping sector in relation to other marine fuels. The assessment is based on a synthesis of knowledge in combination with: (i) energy systems modeling including the cost-effectiveness of ammonia as marine fuel in relation to other fuels for reaching global climate targets; and (ii) a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) approach ranking marine fuel options while considering estimated fuel performance and the importance of criteria based on maritime stakeholder preferences. In the long-term and to reach global GHG reduction, the energy systems modeled indicate that the use of hydrogen represents a more cost-effective marine fuel option than ammonia. However, in the MCDA covering more aspects, we find that ammonia may be almost as interesting for shipping related stakeholders as hydrogen and various biomass-based fuels. Ammonia may to some extent be an interesting future marine fuel option, but many issues remain to be solved before large-scale introduction.

ACS Style

Julia Hansson; Selma Brynolf; Erik Fridell; Mariliis Lehtveer. The Potential Role of Ammonia as Marine Fuel—Based on Energy Systems Modeling and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3265 .

AMA Style

Julia Hansson, Selma Brynolf, Erik Fridell, Mariliis Lehtveer. The Potential Role of Ammonia as Marine Fuel—Based on Energy Systems Modeling and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (8):3265.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Julia Hansson; Selma Brynolf; Erik Fridell; Mariliis Lehtveer. 2020. "The Potential Role of Ammonia as Marine Fuel—Based on Energy Systems Modeling and Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis." Sustainability 12, no. 8: 3265.

Journal article
Published: 22 May 2019 in Biomass and Bioenergy
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There is a need for alternative marine fuels in order to reduce the environmental and climate impacts of shipping, in the short and long term. This study assesses the prospects for seven alternative fuels for the shipping sector in 2030, including biofuels, by applying a multi-criteria decision analysis approach that is based on the estimated fuel performance and on input from a panel of maritime stakeholders and by considering, explicitly, the influence of stakeholder preferences. Seven alternative marine fuels—liquefied natural gas (LNG), liquefied biogas (LBG), methanol from natural gas, renewable methanol, hydrogen for fuel cells produced from (i) natural gas or (ii) electrolysis based on renewable electricity, and hydrotreated vegetable oil (HVO)—and heavy fuel oil (HFO) as benchmark are included and ranked by ten performance criteria and their relative importance. The criteria cover economic, environmental, technical, and social aspects. Stakeholder group preferences (i.e., the relative importance groups assign to the criteria) influence the ranking of these options. For ship-owners, fuel producers, and engine manufacturers, economic criteria, in particular the fuel price, are the most important. These groups rank LNG and HFO the highest, followed by fossil methanol, and then various biofuels (LBG, renewable methanol, and HVO). Meanwhile, representatives from Swedish government authorities prioritize environmental criteria, specifically GHG emissions, and social criteria, specifically the potential to meet regulations, ranking renewable hydrogen the highest, followed by renewable methanol, and then HVO. Policy initiatives are needed to promote the introduction of renewable marine fuels.

ACS Style

Julia Hansson; Stina Månsson; Selma Brynolf; Maria Grahn. Alternative marine fuels: Prospects based on multi-criteria decision analysis involving Swedish stakeholders. Biomass and Bioenergy 2019, 126, 159 -173.

AMA Style

Julia Hansson, Stina Månsson, Selma Brynolf, Maria Grahn. Alternative marine fuels: Prospects based on multi-criteria decision analysis involving Swedish stakeholders. Biomass and Bioenergy. 2019; 126 ():159-173.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Julia Hansson; Stina Månsson; Selma Brynolf; Maria Grahn. 2019. "Alternative marine fuels: Prospects based on multi-criteria decision analysis involving Swedish stakeholders." Biomass and Bioenergy 126, no. : 159-173.

Original research
Published: 27 September 2018 in GCB Bioenergy
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Sustainable feedstock supply is a critical issue for the bioenergy sector. One concern is that feedstock production will impact biodiversity. We analyze how this concern is addressed in assessments of biomass supply potentials and in selected governance systems in the EU and Brazil, including the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED), the EU Common Agricultural Policy (CAP), and the Brazilian Forest Act. The analysis focuses on grasslands and includes estimates of the amount of grassland area (and corresponding biomass production volume) that would be excluded from cultivation in specific biodiversity‐protection scenarios. The reviewed assessments used a variety of approaches to identify and exclude biodiverse grasslands as unavailable for bioenergy. Because exclusion was integrated with other nature protection considerations, quantification of excluded grassland areas was often not possible. The RED complements and strengthens the CAP in terms of biodiversity protection. Following the RED, an estimated 39‐48% (about 9‐11 Mha) and 15‐54% (about 10‐38 Mha) of natural and non‐natural grassland, respectively, may be considered highly biodiverse in EU‐28. The estimated biomass production potential on these areas corresponds to some 1‐3 and 1.5‐10 EJ/year for natural and non‐natural grassland, respectively (depending on area availability and management intensity). However, the RED lacks clear definitions and guidance, creating uncertainty about its influence on grassland availability for bioenergy feedstock production. For Brazil, an estimated 16‐77% (about 16‐76 Mha) and 1‐32% (about 7‐24 Mha) of natural and non‐natural grassland, respectively, may be considered highly biodiverse. In Brazil, economic‐ecological zoning was found potentially important for grassland protection. Further clarification of grassland definitions and delineation in regulations will facilitate a better understanding of the prospects for bioenergy feedstock production on grasslands, and the impacts of bioenergy deployment on biodiversity. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

ACS Style

Julia Hansson; Göran Berndes; Oskar Englund; Flávio L. M. De Freitas; Gerd Sparovek; Flávio Luiz Mazzaro De Freitas. How is biodiversity protection influencing the potential for bioenergy feedstock production on grasslands? GCB Bioenergy 2018, 11, 517 -538.

AMA Style

Julia Hansson, Göran Berndes, Oskar Englund, Flávio L. M. De Freitas, Gerd Sparovek, Flávio Luiz Mazzaro De Freitas. How is biodiversity protection influencing the potential for bioenergy feedstock production on grasslands? GCB Bioenergy. 2018; 11 (3):517-538.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Julia Hansson; Göran Berndes; Oskar Englund; Flávio L. M. De Freitas; Gerd Sparovek; Flávio Luiz Mazzaro De Freitas. 2018. "How is biodiversity protection influencing the potential for bioenergy feedstock production on grasslands?" GCB Bioenergy 11, no. 3: 517-538.

Journal article
Published: 01 August 2018 in Renewable Energy
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ACS Style

Roman Hackl; Julia Hansson; Fredrik Norén; Olle Stenberg; Mikael Olshammar. Cultivating Ciona intestinalis to counteract marine eutrophication: Environmental assessment of a marine biomass based bioenergy and biofertilizer production system. Renewable Energy 2018, 124, 103 -113.

AMA Style

Roman Hackl, Julia Hansson, Fredrik Norén, Olle Stenberg, Mikael Olshammar. Cultivating Ciona intestinalis to counteract marine eutrophication: Environmental assessment of a marine biomass based bioenergy and biofertilizer production system. Renewable Energy. 2018; 124 ():103-113.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Roman Hackl; Julia Hansson; Fredrik Norén; Olle Stenberg; Mikael Olshammar. 2018. "Cultivating Ciona intestinalis to counteract marine eutrophication: Environmental assessment of a marine biomass based bioenergy and biofertilizer production system." Renewable Energy 124, no. : 103-113.

Journal article
Published: 01 April 2018 in Journal of Cleaner Production
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The production and use of transportation fuels can lead to sustainability impacts. Assessing them simultaneously in a holistic way is a challenge. This paper examines methodology for assessing the sustainability performance of products in a more integrated way, including a broad range of social impacts. Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment (LCSA) methodology is applied for this assessment. LSCA often constitutes of the integration of results from social LCA (S-LCA), environmental life cycle assessment (E-LCA) and life cycle costing (LCC). In this study, an S-LCA from an earlier project is extended with a positive social aspect, as well as refined and detailed. E-LCA and LCC results are built from LCA database and literature. Multi Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) methodology is applied to integrate the results from the three different assessments into an LCSA. The weighting of key sustainability dimensions in the MCDA is performed in different ways, where the sustainability dimensions are prioritized differently priority based on the assumed values of different stakeholder profiles (Egalitarian, Hierarchist, and Individualist). The developed methodology is tested on selected biomass based and fossil transportation fuels - ethanol produced from Brazilian sugarcane and US corn/maize, and petrol produced from Russian and Nigerian crude oils, where it delineates differences in sustainability performance between products assessed. The outcome in terms of relative ranking of the transportation fuel chains based on sustainability performance differs when applying different decision-maker profiles. This result highlights and supports views that there is no one single answer regarding which of the alternatives that is most sustainable. Rather, it depends strongly upon the worldview and values held by the decision maker. A key conclusion is that sustainability assessments should pay more attention to potential differences in underlying values held by key stakeholders in relevant societal contexts. The LCSA methodology still faces challenges regarding results integration but MCDA in combination with stakeholder profiles appears to be a useful approach to build on further.

ACS Style

Elisabeth Ekener; Julia Hansson; Aron Larsson; Philip Peck. Developing Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment methodology by applying values-based sustainability weighting - Tested on biomass based and fossil transportation fuels. Journal of Cleaner Production 2018, 181, 337 -351.

AMA Style

Elisabeth Ekener, Julia Hansson, Aron Larsson, Philip Peck. Developing Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment methodology by applying values-based sustainability weighting - Tested on biomass based and fossil transportation fuels. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2018; 181 ():337-351.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Elisabeth Ekener; Julia Hansson; Aron Larsson; Philip Peck. 2018. "Developing Life Cycle Sustainability Assessment methodology by applying values-based sustainability weighting - Tested on biomass based and fossil transportation fuels." Journal of Cleaner Production 181, no. : 337-351.

Review
Published: 01 January 2018 in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
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ACS Style

Selma Brynolf; Maria Taljegard; Maria Grahn; Julia Hansson. Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2018, 81, 1887 -1905.

AMA Style

Selma Brynolf, Maria Taljegard, Maria Grahn, Julia Hansson. Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2018; 81 ():1887-1905.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Selma Brynolf; Maria Taljegard; Maria Grahn; Julia Hansson. 2018. "Electrofuels for the transport sector: A review of production costs." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 81, no. : 1887-1905.

Original research article
Published: 13 March 2017 in Frontiers in Energy Research
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This paper maps, categorizes, and quantifies all major point sources of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions from industrial and combustion processes in Sweden. The paper also estimates the Swedish technical potential for electrofuels (power-to-gas/fuels) based on carbon capture and utilization. With our bottom-up approach using European databases, we find that Sweden emits approximately 50 million metric tons of CO2 per year from different types of point sources, with 65% (or about 32 million tons) from biogenic sources. The major sources are the pulp and paper industry (46%), heat and power production (23%), and waste treatment and incineration (8%). Most of the CO2 is emitted at low concentrations (90%, biofuel operations) would yield electrofuels corresponding to approximately 2% of the current demand for transportation fuels (corresponding to 1.5-2 TWh/year). In a 2030 scenario with large-scale biofuels operations based on lignocellulosic feedstocks, the potential for electrofuels production from high-concentration sources increases to 8-11 TWh/year. Finally, renewable electricity and production costs, rather than CO2 supply, limit the potential for production of electrofuels in Sweden.

ACS Style

Julia Hansson; Roman Hackl; Maria Taljegard; Selma Brynolf; Maria Grahn. The Potential for Electrofuels Production in Sweden Utilizing Fossil and Biogenic CO2 Point Sources. Frontiers in Energy Research 2017, 5, 1 .

AMA Style

Julia Hansson, Roman Hackl, Maria Taljegard, Selma Brynolf, Maria Grahn. The Potential for Electrofuels Production in Sweden Utilizing Fossil and Biogenic CO2 Point Sources. Frontiers in Energy Research. 2017; 5 ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Julia Hansson; Roman Hackl; Maria Taljegard; Selma Brynolf; Maria Grahn. 2017. "The Potential for Electrofuels Production in Sweden Utilizing Fossil and Biogenic CO2 Point Sources." Frontiers in Energy Research 5, no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 01 April 2016 in Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews
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International trade in biomass for energy is growing and wood pellets have become a very successful internationally traded bioenergy-based commodity. Russian wood pellets have captured an important share of European markets. The wood pellets are mainly transported to European markets by sea. The paper addresses challenges facing wood pellet logistics in Northwest Russia, through the ports of St. Petersburg, Vyborg, and Ust-Luga, focusing on options for seaborne transportation of pellets from producer to consumer from the economic, environmental and regulatory perspectives. The study shows that seaborne transportation of Russian wood pellets faces many constraints and without improvements in all stages of the wood pellet transportation chain through Northwest Russian seaports, the future for Russian wood pellet exports to Europe does not seem promising from the economic and environmental perspectives. Optimal logistics-related decisions require analysis of each specific situation, with detailed study of the investment and production capacities of the individual companies involved. Better knowledge of the respective stages of the wood pellet transportation chain and full consideration of the environmental aspects involved will enable effective optimization actions to be taken. This study represents a starting point for further discussion of possible improvements to seaborne wood pellet transportation to European consumers.Post-print / final draf

ACS Style

Svetlana Proskurina; Heli Rimppi; Jussi Heinimö; Julia Hansson; Anton Orlov; Kc Raghu; Esa Vakkilainen. Logistical, economic, environmental and regulatory conditions for future wood pellet transportation by sea to Europe: The case of Northwest Russian seaports. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 2016, 56, 38 -50.

AMA Style

Svetlana Proskurina, Heli Rimppi, Jussi Heinimö, Julia Hansson, Anton Orlov, Kc Raghu, Esa Vakkilainen. Logistical, economic, environmental and regulatory conditions for future wood pellet transportation by sea to Europe: The case of Northwest Russian seaports. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews. 2016; 56 ():38-50.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Svetlana Proskurina; Heli Rimppi; Jussi Heinimö; Julia Hansson; Anton Orlov; Kc Raghu; Esa Vakkilainen. 2016. "Logistical, economic, environmental and regulatory conditions for future wood pellet transportation by sea to Europe: The case of Northwest Russian seaports." Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews 56, no. : 38-50.

Journal article
Published: 19 February 2016 in WIREs Energy and Environment
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The introduction of sustainability criteria for solid biomass/biofuels on the European Union (EU) or global level may influence the EU pellets market, e.g., by limiting the eligible biomass supply potential or specific pellet chains. This assessment focuses on greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reductions and the issue of sustainable forest management (SFM) for pellets potentially used in Sweden (for residential and/or industrial use). The paper includes (1) a literature review of recent studies addressing the impact of sustainability requirements (for solid biomass and/or liquid biofuels) on the bioenergy market, (2) a characterization of SFM conditions in potential pellets export countries and their capacity to enforce respective legislation, and (3) an assessment of GHG emissions for heat and electricity for the Swedish market from selected potential wood pellet chains (including torrefaction) and related GHG emissions reduction compared to fossil fuels using a life cycle assessment perspective. Most of the assessed wood pellet value chains will most likely be able to meet stringent sustainability requirements from a GHG perspective. Thus, the impact of near-term GHG emission reduction demands on the Swedish pellets market is limited. More specifically, we find that torrefaction may be advantageous for pellets imported over long distances (i.e., over approximately 18,500 km). We conclude that demand for SFM related to solid biofuels will not have a significant or long-lasting effect on the market for Swedish pellets. The real impacts of sustainability requirements will however depend on levels of ambition as well as the methodologies and systems boundaries applied in future systems. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

ACS Style

Julia Hansson; Roman Hackl. The potential influence of sustainability criteria on the European Union pellets market-the example of Sweden. WIREs Energy and Environment 2016, 5, 413 -429.

AMA Style

Julia Hansson, Roman Hackl. The potential influence of sustainability criteria on the European Union pellets market-the example of Sweden. WIREs Energy and Environment. 2016; 5 (4):413-429.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Julia Hansson; Roman Hackl. 2016. "The potential influence of sustainability criteria on the European Union pellets market-the example of Sweden." WIREs Energy and Environment 5, no. 4: 413-429.

Book chapter
Published: 18 December 2015 in Advances in Bioenergy
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ACS Style

Maria Grahn; Julia Hansson. Prospects for Domestic Biofuels for Transport in Sweden 2030 Based on Current Production and Future Plans. Advances in Bioenergy 2015, 431 -446.

AMA Style

Maria Grahn, Julia Hansson. Prospects for Domestic Biofuels for Transport in Sweden 2030 Based on Current Production and Future Plans. Advances in Bioenergy. 2015; ():431-446.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maria Grahn; Julia Hansson. 2015. "Prospects for Domestic Biofuels for Transport in Sweden 2030 Based on Current Production and Future Plans." Advances in Bioenergy , no. : 431-446.

Journal article
Published: 03 March 2015 in Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining
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Increased bioenergy demand has triggered a discussion on the sustainability of solid biomass‐based fuels and a system for sustainability criteria has been discussed within the EU. This paper assesses the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions for heat and electricity from selected wood pellet value chains for the Swedish market and the associated potential emissions reduction in relation to fossil fuels using a life cycle assessment (LCA) perspective, and in relation to the approach described in recent EU policy developments. Nine different wood pellet value chains for heat and/or power production in Sweden are assessed (including pellets from Sweden, Latvia, Russia, and Canada). Selected assumptions are varied in a sensitivity analysis. The total factory‐gate GHG emissions at the conversion facility for the wood pellet value chains studied, range between 2 and 25 g CO2‐eq/MJ pellets with Swedish pellets at the lower end, and Russian pellets using natural gas for drying the raw material at the higher end. Imported pellets from Latvia, Russia, and Canada that use biomass for drying may also reach relatively low levels of GHG emissions. The potential GHG reduction as compared to a certain fossil fuel default energy comparator is 64–98% for the electricity produced in the pellet value chains studied and 77–99% for the heat produced. Thus, many wood pellet value chains on the Swedish market will most likely be able to meet strict demands for sustainability from a GHG perspective. © 2015 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd

ACS Style

Julia Hansson; Fredrik Martinsson; Mathias Gustavsson. Greenhouse gas performance of heat and electricity from wood pellet value chains - based on pellets for the Swedish market. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 2015, 9, 378 -396.

AMA Style

Julia Hansson, Fredrik Martinsson, Mathias Gustavsson. Greenhouse gas performance of heat and electricity from wood pellet value chains - based on pellets for the Swedish market. Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining. 2015; 9 (4):378-396.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Julia Hansson; Fredrik Martinsson; Mathias Gustavsson. 2015. "Greenhouse gas performance of heat and electricity from wood pellet value chains - based on pellets for the Swedish market." Biofuels, Bioproducts and Biorefining 9, no. 4: 378-396.

Journal article
Published: 24 September 2014 in WIREs Energy and Environment
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Currently, Sweden has the largest share of renewable fuels for transport in the EU. The ambition of the Swedish Government for 2030 is for a vehicle fleet independent of fossil fuels. This paper assesses the potential future contribution of domestically produced biofuels for transport in Sweden to 2030, based on a mapping of the prospects from the actual and potential Swedish biofuel producers. There are plans for cellulose‐based ethanol, methanol, DME (dimethyl ether), methane, and the biodiesel option HVO (hydrotreated vegetable oil). Continued domestic production of biofuels at current levels and the realization of all the ongoing mapped plans for additional biofuels production result in potential domestic biofuels production of 18 TWhfuel in 2023. When assuming a continued expansion of biofuels production capacity, the potential domestic biofuels production reaches about 26 TWhfuel in 2030. If the realization of the mapped biofuels plans is delayed by 5 years and the pace of continued implementation of additional biofuel capacity is also reduced, the potential domestic biofuels production is reduced to about 8 TWhfuel and 20 TWhfuel biofuels in 2020 and 2030, respectively. These two scenarios correspond to a share of biofuels of the total future energy demand for road transport in Sweden at about 10–30% in 2020 and 26–79% in 2030, depending on which official energy demand scenario is used. The actual contribution of biofuels for road transport will depend on, e.g., policies, the global development for fossil fuels and biofuels, the competition for biomass and biofuels, and future energy demand in the road transport sector. Conflict of interest: The authors have declared no conflicts of interest for this article. For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website.

ACS Style

Maria Grahn; Julia Hansson. Prospects for domestic biofuels for transport in Sweden 2030 based on current production and future plans. WIREs Energy and Environment 2014, 4, 290 -306.

AMA Style

Maria Grahn, Julia Hansson. Prospects for domestic biofuels for transport in Sweden 2030 based on current production and future plans. WIREs Energy and Environment. 2014; 4 (3):290-306.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Maria Grahn; Julia Hansson. 2014. "Prospects for domestic biofuels for transport in Sweden 2030 based on current production and future plans." WIREs Energy and Environment 4, no. 3: 290-306.