Aviation is an important contributor to the global economy, satisfying society’s mobility needs. It contributes to climate change through CO₂ and non-CO₂ effects, including contrail-cirrus and ozone formation. There is currently significant interest in policies, regulations and research aiming to reduce aviation’s climate impact. Here we model the effect of these measures on global warming and perform a bottom-up analysis of potential technical improvements, challenging the assumptions of the targets for the sector with a number of scenarios up to 2100. We show that although the emissions targets for aviation are in line with the overall goals of the Paris Agreement, there is a high likelihood that the climate impact of aviation will not meet these goals. Our assessment includes feasible technological advancements and the availability of sustainable aviation fuels. This conclusion is robust for several COVID-19 recovery scenarios, including changes in travel behaviour.

The investigation of the various heat management concepts using LH₂ requires the development of a modeling environment coupling the cryogenic hydrogen fuel system with turbofan performance. This paper presents a numerical framework to model hydrogen-fueled gas turbine engines with a dedicated heat-management system, complemented by an introductory analysis of the impact of using LH₂ to precool and intercool in the compression system. The propulsion installations comprise Brayton cycle-based turbofans and first assessments are made on how to use the hydrogen as a heat sink integrated into the compression system. Conceptual tubular compact heat exchanger designs are explored to either precool or intercool the compression system and preheat the fuel to improve the installed performance of the propulsion cycles. The precooler and the intercooler show up to 0.3% improved specific fuel consumption for heat exchanger effectiveness in the range 0.5–0.6, but higher effectiveness designs incur disproportionately higher pressure losses that cancel-out the benefits.