Predicting the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics and trade-off/synergy relationships of ecosystem service value (ESV) under different policy scenarios is of great significance for realizing regional sustainable development. This study established a framework and used the geographical simulation and optimization systems-future land use simulation (GeoSOS-FLUS) model and bivariate local autocorrelation analysis to stimulate and predict the impact of land use change on the ESV of Anyang City from 1995 to 2025. We also explored the trade-offs and synergy among ecosystem services under three policy scenarios (natural evolution, cultivated land protection, and ecological protection) in 2025. Results show that (1) the land use change in Anyang from 1995 to 2025 was significant, and the degree of land use change under the cultivated land and ecological protection scenarios was more moderate than that under the natural evolution scenario; (2) The total ESV decreased between 1995 and 2015, amounting to losses of 1126 million yuan, and the decline from 2015 to 2025 under the natural evolution scenario was more significant than those under the cultivated land protection and ecological protection scenarios; and (3) an obvious synergy was observed between various ecosystem services in Anyang City under different scenarios in 2025, and the most significant synergy was observed under the natural evolution scenario. In terms of spatial distribution, the agglomeration of “high–high” synergy in the west and “low–low” synergy in the central region was significant. Local areas showed “high–low” and “low–high” trade-off relationships scattered between their built land and woodland or cultivated land. The proposed framework can provide certain scientific support for regulating land use and ecosystem services in rapidly urbanized areas.

Identifying the balance and dynamic changes in supply and demand of ecosystem services (ES) can help maintain the sustainability of the regional ecosystem and improve human well-being. To achieve a sustainable ecological management regime in Zhengzhou City, this study presented a comprehensive framework for identifying dynamic changes of ES supply and demand and managing ES. Using land use data of Zhengzhou City in 1995, 2005, and 2015 and incorporating expert knowledge and the ES evaluation matrix, we evaluated the spatiotemporal changes in the ES supply and demand in Zhengzhou. Gradient analysis was conducted to identify urban–rural patterns in the budgets of ES supply and demand. Spatial autocorrelation analysis was employed to identify the hotspot areas of ES surpluses or deficits. The research results show the following: (1) In the past 20 years, the supply-and-demand relationship of ES in Zhengzhou has gradually evolved in a direction where supply falls short of demand. The average budget index of Zhengzhou’s ES supply and demand decreased from 7.30 in 1995 to −4.89 in 2015. Changes in the supply and demand status of ES in Zhengzhou corresponded to the background of rapid urbanization. (2) Urban–rural gradient differences exist in the budgets of ES supply and demand in Zhengzhou. Core development areas, such as the Zhengzhou urban areas, are in deficit, whereas a balance or surplus can be observed in rural areas far from urban centers. (3) The surplus hotspots of ES budgets were mainly distributed in the western and southern mountainous areas of Zhengzhou, and they were scattered and the scope shrank, with a decrease of 2.73 times in 20 years, whereas the deficit hotspots expanded outward with each urban area as the center, with an increase of 5.77%. Ecological management zoning (ecological conservation area, ecological improvement area, and ecological reconstruction area) with the effective guidance of ecological and economic policies could comprehensively improve ES management and achieve urban sustainability. The framework in this study can easily and quickly assess the supply and demand status of ES and provide scientific support for the ecological management in rapidly urbanizing areas.

In order to achieve the coordinated development of ecological protection and cultivated land use, ecological security and cultivated land use functions (CLUFs) in the study area were evaluated by constructing a comprehensive evaluation index system. The leading CLUFs were measured, and it was determined to use the normalized revealed comparative advantage (NRCA) index. The spatial superposition analysis of the ecological security level and the leading CLUFs was carried out to obtain the zoning of the coordinated development of ecological security and cultivated land use, and differentiated utilization strategies were proposed for different zones. The results of this study showed the following: (1) The ecological security level of cultivated land in Yuanyang County can be divided into high, medium, and low security levels, accounting for 30.68%, 43.42%, and 25.9% of the total cultivated land area, respectively. The overall ecological security level is high. (2) The current cultivated land use mainly has a production function, accounting for 38.39% of the total cultivated land area, the leading CLUFs that are 34.16% of the cultivated land are the ecological function, and 27.45% of the cultivated land is the living function. (3) The spatial superposition analysis of the ecological security level and leading CLUFs yielded four zones of cultivated land use enhancement, including a production core zone, and different control strategies were proposed for the different zones. These strategies may help to fully realize the multifunctionality of the cultivated land without compromising ecological protection. Implementing differentiated protection for cultivated land in different use zones can achieve the coordinated development of ecological protection and cultivated land use, thus promoting the sustainable use of cultivated land resources.

Ecological security pattern construction is a fundamental approach to ensuring regional ecological security and enhancing human welfare. Taking Henan Province, a typical region of China’s main agricultural production area, as the study area, we use multi-source spatial data to calculate the high-value areas of ecosystem services and identify ecological source sites. On the basis of calculating the degree of land use development and GDP per land and population density to determine high-demand areas of the ecosystem, the ecological resistance surface coefficient is modified with nighttime lighting data, and the ecological corridor between the source site and the high-demand area is extracted using the minimum cumulative resistance model, so as to construct and optimize the regional ecological security pattern. The following results are presented. (1) The total area of ecological source sites in Henan Province is 3.02 × 10⁴ km², accounting for 18.12% of the total study area, which is concentrated in the mountainous areas of East Henan and South Henan. (2) The high-demand area of ecosystem services has a total area of 4.1 × 10⁴ km², accounting for 24.73% of the total study area, mainly concentrated in the central and eastern regions of Henan, with poor spatial matching of ecosystem service supply and demand. (3) The total length of ecological corridors is 1062.3 km, and the overall pattern forms the main corridor axes. The identification of ecological corridors focuses on the ecological demand space and puts forward suggestions for the optimization of the regional ecological security pattern based on it.

As one of the countries which has been experiencing a forest transition, China provides important insights into and theoretical and empirical knowledge of forest transition. In this study, through the framework of Sustainable Livelihood Analysis (SLA) and questionnaire surveys, we examined forest transition, farmers’ land-use activities and livelihood changes in Chicheng county, a typical mountainous area in Northern China, during 1975–2018. Most villages of Chicheng county experienced forest transition during the period of 2003–2005, but some villages experienced forest transition in 2010–2015. Forest transition variation over time was influenced by land use and livelihood changes. Livelihood resources, policy and institutional constraints and livelihood strategies had significant influences on land use and then caused variation in forest transition characteristics. The process of “livelihood–land use–forest transition” was the key to achieving and maintaining forest transition, and the interaction between livelihood and land use was a negative feedback relationship between society and ecology. The dominant path of forest transition in Chicheng county was the “economic development path”. Moreover, the “intensive agriculture path of small-scale farmers” enhanced the “economic development path”, and the “forest scarcity path” promoted both of the above two paths. This implies that the feedback and interactions between society and ecology should be taken into account so as to achieve a sustainable human and environmental system.