The survival of patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) is closely related to recurrence. It is necessary to classify the risk factors for early recurrence and to develop a tool for predicting the initial outcome after surgery. Among patients with resected resectable PDAC at Samsung Medical Center (Seoul, Korea) between January 2007 and December 2016, 631 patients were classified as the training set. Analyses identifying preoperative factors affecting early recurrence after surgery were performed. When the p-value estimated from univariable Cox’s proportional hazard regression analysis was <0.05, the variables were included in multivariable analysis and used for establishing the nomogram. The established nomogram predicted the probability of early recurrence within 12 months after surgery in resectable PDAC. One thousand bootstrap resamplings were used to validate the nomogram. The concordance index was 0.665 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.637–0.695), and the incremental area under the curve was 0.655 (95% CI, 0.631–0.682). We developed a web-based calculator, and the nomogram is freely available at http://pdac.smchbp.org/. This is the first nomogram to predict early recurrence after surgery for resectable PDAC in the preoperative setting, providing a method to allow proceeding to treatment customized according to the risk of individual patients.

The 8th American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) staging system for distal cholangiocarcinoma (DCC) included a positive lymph node count (PLNC), but a comparison of the prognostic predictive power of PLNC and lymph node ratio (LNR) is still under debate. This study aimed to compare various staging models made by combining the abovementioned factors, identify the model with the best predictive power, and propose a modified staging system. We retrospectively reviewed 251 patients who underwent surgery for DCC at four centers. To determine the superiority of various staging models for predicting overall OSR, Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), AIC correction (AICc), and Harrell’s C-statistic were calculated. In multivariate analysis, age (p = 0.003), total lymph node count (p = 0.033), and revised T(LNR)M staging (p < 0.001) were identified as independent factors for overall survival rate. The predictive performance of revised T (LNR) M staging (AIC: 1288.925, BIC: 1303.377, AICc: 1291.52, and Harrell’s C statics: 0.667) was superior to other staging system. A modified staging system consisting of revised T category and LNR predicted better overall survival of DCC than AJCC 7th and AJCC 8th editions. In the future, external validation of the proposed new system using a larger cohort will be required.

Naru KIM, Kee-Hwan KIM*. Ann Hepatobiliary Pancreat Surg 2022;26:S256. https://doi.org/10.14701/ahbps.2022S1.BP-PP-6-5