Plant projects, referred to as Engineering Procurement and Construction (EPC), generate massive amounts of data throughout their life cycle, from the planning stages to the operation and maintenance (OM) stages. Many EPC contractors struggle with their projects due to the complexity of the decision-making processes, owing to the vast amount of project data generated during each project stage. In line with the fourth industrial revolution, the demand for engineering project management solutions to apply artificial intelligence (AI) in big data technology is increasing. The purpose of this study was to predict the risk of contractor and support decision-making at each project stage using machine-learning (ML) technology based on data generated in the bidding, engineering, construction, and OM stages of EPC projects. As a result of this study, the Engineering Machine-learning Automation Platform (EMAP), a cloud-based integrated analysis tool applied with big data and AI/ML technology, was developed. EMAP is an intelligent decision support system that consists of five modules: Invitation to Bid (ITB) Analysis, Design Cost Estimation, Design Error Checking, Change Order Forecasting, and Equipment Predictive Maintenance, using advanced AI/ML algorithms. In addition, each module was validated through case studies to assure the performance and accuracy of the module. This study contributes to the strengthening of the risk response for each stage of the EPC project, especially preventing errors by the project managers, and improving their work accuracy. Project risk management using AI/ML breaks away from the existing risk management practices centered on statistical analysis, and further expands the research scalability of related works.

Contractors responsible for the whole execution of engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) projects are exposed to multiple risks due to various unbalanced contracting methods such as lump-sum turn-key and low-bid selection. Although systematic risk management approaches are required to prevent unexpected damage to the EPC contractors in practice, there were no comprehensive digital toolboxes for identifying and managing risk provisions for ITB and contract documents. This study describes two core modules, Critical Risk Check (CRC) and Term Frequency Analysis (TFA), developed as a digital EPC contract risk analysis tool for contractors, using artificial intelligence and text-mining techniques. The CRC module automatically extracts risk-involved clauses in the EPC ITB and contracts by the phrase-matcher technique. A machine learning model was built in the TFA module for contractual risk extraction by using the named-entity recognition (NER) method. The risk-involved clauses collected for model development were converted into a database in JavaScript Object Notation (JSON) format, and the final results were saved in pickle format through the digital modules. In addition, optimization and reliability validation of these modules were performed through Proof of Concept (PoC) as a case study, and the modules were further developed to a cloud-service platform for application. The pilot test results showed that risk clause extraction accuracy rates with the CRC module and the TFA module were about 92% and 88%, respectively, whereas the risk clause extraction accuracy rates manually by the engineers were about 70% and 86%, respectively. The time required for ITB analysis was significantly shorter with the digital modules than by the engineers.

The steel industry has been forced to switch from the traditional blast furnace to the electric arc furnace (EAF) process to reduce carbon emissions. However, EAF still relies entirely on the operators’ proficiency to determine the electrical power input. This study aims to enhance the efficiency of the EAF process by predicting the tap temperature in real time through a data-driven approach and by applying a system that automatically sets the input amount of power to the production site. We developed a tap temperature prediction model (TTPM) with a machine learning (ML)-based support vector regression (SVR) algorithm. The operation data of the stainless EAF, where the actual production work was carried out, were extracted, and the models using six ML algorithms were trained. The model validation results show that the model with an SVR radial basis function (RBF) algorithm resulted in the best performance with a root mean square error (RMSE) of 20.14. The SVR algorithm performed better than the others for features such as noise. As a result of a five-month analysis of the operating performance of the developed TTPM for the stainless EAF, the tap temperature deviation decreased by 17% and the average power consumption decreased by 282 kWh/heat compared with the operation that depended on the operator’s skill. In the results of the economic evaluation of the facility investment, the economic feasibility was found to be sufficient, with an internal rate of return (IRR) of 35.8%. Applying the developed TTPM to the stainless EAF and successfully operating it for ten months verified the system’s reliability. In terms of the increasing proportion of EAF production used to decarbonize the steel industry, it is expected that various studies will be conducted more actively to improve the efficiency of the EAF process in the future. This study contributes to the improvement of steel companies’ manufacturing competitiveness and the carbon neutrality of the steel industry by achieving the energy and production efficiency improvements associated with the EAF process.

The development of intelligent information technology in the era of the fourth industrial revolution requires the EPC (engineering, procurement, and construction) industry to increase productivity through a digital transformation. This study aims to automatically analyze the critical risk clauses in the invitation to bid (ITB) at the bidding stage to strengthen their competitiveness for the EPC contractors. To this end, we developed an automated analysis technology that effectively analyzes a large amount of ITB documents in a short time by applying natural language processing (NLP) and bi-directional long short-term memory (bi-LSTM) algorithms. This study proposes two models. First, the semantic analysis (SA) model is a rule-based approach that applies NLP to extract key risk clauses. Second, the risk level ranking (RLR) model is a train-based approach that ranks the risk impact for each clause by applying bi-LSTM. After developing and training an artificial intelligent (AI)-based ITB analysis model, its performance was evaluated through the actual project data. As a result of validation, the SA model showed an F1 score of 86.4 percent, and the RLR model showed an accuracy of 46.8 percent. The RLR model displayed relatively low performance because the ITB used in the evaluation test included the contract clauses that did not exist in the training dataset. Therefore, this study illustrated that the rule-based approach performed superior to the training-based method. The authors suggest that EPC contractors should apply both the SA and RLR modes in the ITB analysis, as one supplements the other. The two models were embedded in the Engineering Machine-learning Automation Platform (EMAP), a cloud-based platform developed by the authors. Rapid analysis through applying both the rule-based and AI-based automatic ITB analysis technology can contribute to securing timeliness for risk response and supplement possible human mistakes in the bidding stage.

The by-product gases generated during steel manufacturing processes, including blast furnace gas, coke oven gas, and Linz–Donawitz gas, exhibit considerable variability in composition and supply. Consequently, achieving stable combustion control of these gases is critical for improving boiler efficiency. This study developed the advanced boiler combustion control model (ABCCM) by combining the random forest (RF) and classification and regression tree (CART) algorithms to optimize the combustion of steam power boilers using steel by-product gases. The ABCCM derives optimal combustion patterns in real time using the RF algorithm and minimizes fuel consumption through the CART algorithm, thereby optimizing the overall gross heat rate. The results demonstrate that the ABCCM achieves a 0.86% improvement in combustion efficiency and a 1.7% increase in power generation efficiency compared to manual control methods. Moreover, the model reduces the gross heat rate by 58.3 kcal/kWh, which translates into an estimated annual energy cost saving of USD 89.6 K. These improvements contribute considerably to reducing carbon emissions, with the ABCCM being able to optimize fuel utilization and minimize excess air supply, thus enhancing the overall sustainability of steelmaking operations. This study underscores the potential of the ABCCM to extend beyond the steel industry.

The ongoing Russia–Ukraine conflict has exacerbated the global crisis of natural gas supply, particularly in Europe. During the winter season, major importers of liquefied natural gas (LNG), such as South Korea and Japan, were directly affected by fluctuating spot LNG prices. This study aimed to use machine learning (ML) to predict the Japan Korea Marker (JKM), a spot LNG price index, to reduce price fluctuation risks for LNG importers such as the Korean Gas Corporation (KOGAS). Hence, price prediction models were developed based on long short-term memory (LSTM), artificial neural network (ANN), and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms, which were used for time series data prediction. Eighty-seven variables were collected for JKM prediction, of which eight were selected for modeling. Four scenarios (scenarios A, B, C, and D) were devised and tested to analyze the effect of each variable on the performance of the models. Among the eight variables, JKM, national balancing point (NBP), and Brent price indexes demonstrated the largest effects on the performance of the ML models. In contrast, the variable of LNG import volume in China had the least effect. The LSTM model showed a mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.195, making it the best-performing algorithm. However, the LSTM model demonstrated a decreased in performance of at least 57% during the COVID-19 period, which raises concerns regarding the reliability of the test results obtained during that time. The study compared the ML models’ prediction performances with those of the traditional statistical model, autoregressive integrated moving averages (ARIMA), to verify their effectiveness. The comparison results showed that the LSTM model’s performance deviated by an MAE of 15–22%, which can be attributed to the constraints of the small dataset size and conceptual structural differences between the ML and ARIMA models. However, if a sufficiently large dataset can be secured for training, the ML model is expected to perform better than the ARIMA. Additionally, separate tests were conducted to predict the trends of JKM fluctuations and comprehensively validate the practicality of the ML models. Based on the test results, LSTM model, identified as the optimal ML algorithm, achieved a performance of 53% during the regular period and 57% d during the abnormal period (i.e., COVID-19). Subject matter experts agreed that the performance of the ML models could be improved through additional studies, ultimately reducing the risk of price fluctuations when purchasing spot LNG.