Thomas Alfstad

Thomas Alfstad


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

9Years (2018-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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12 October 2018 in Energies
Verified
Journal Article
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JBJenny Gabriela Peña Balderrama
Jenny Gabriela Peña Balderrama
TAThomas Alfstad
Thomas Alfstad
CTConstantinos Taliotis
Constantinos Taliotis
MHMohammad Reza Hesamzadeh
Mohammad Reza Hesamzadeh
MHMark Howells
Mark Howells
This paper considers hypothetical options for the transformation of the Bolivian power generation system to one that emits less carbon dioxide. Specifically, it evaluates the influence of the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) on marginal abatement cost curves (MACC) when applying carbon taxation to the power sector. The study is illustrated with a bottom-up least-cost optimization model. Projections of key parameters influence the shape of MACCs and the underlying technology configurations. These are reported. Results from our study (and the set of assumptions on which they are based) are country-specific. Nonetheless, the methodology can be replicated to other case studies to provide insights into the role carbon taxes and lowering finance costs might play in reducing emissions.

11 November 2020 in Research Square
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JBJenny Gabriela Peña Balderrama
Jenny Gabriela Peña Balderrama
Dilip KhatiwadaDilip Khatiwada
Dilip Khatiwada
FGFrancesco Gardumi
Francesco Gardumi
TAThomas Alfstad
Thomas Alfstad
SJSilvia Ulloa Jimenez
Silvia Ulloa Jimenez
MHMark Howells
Mark Howells
The use of biomass for renewable energy production is one alternative to reduce the environmental impacts of energy production worldwide. Sugarcane-based ethanol is one of the most widespread biofuels in the road transport sector and its development has been encouraged by strong incentives on production and use in several countries. The growing realization on the environmental impacts of ethanol production indicates the need to increase the efficient utilization of biomass resources by optimizing the production chain sustainably. This paper evaluates enhancements in the ethanol production chain quantitatively by identifying opportunities for agricultural intensification and investments in advanced biorefineries in a least-cost optimization model. Results of our model show that significant cost and environmental benefits can be achieved by modernizing sugarcane agriculture in Bolivia. Demands for ethanol and sugar can be met cost-effectively by increasing sugarcane yields from the current country-average of 55.34 ton/ha to 85.7 ton/ha in 2030 with a moderate cropland expansion of 11.4 thousand hectares in the period 2019-2030. Our results further suggest that it is cost-optimal to invest in efficient cogeneration in biorefineries to maximize the renewable energy output and the economic benefits of sugarcane ethanol. Finally, biofuel support in the range of 8-10 US$/GJ is required for investments in second-generation ethanol in biorefineries to be cost-competitive in the medium-term..

8 February 2024 in Cambridge Open Engage
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Preprint
Open access
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HLHannah Luscombe
Hannah Luscombe
EREmma Richardson
Emma Richardson
VFVivien Foster
Vivien Foster
MHMark Howells
Mark Howells
JQJairo Quiros-Tortos
Jairo Quiros-Tortos
RZRiqi Zhang
Riqi Zhang
Developing nations encounter significant challenges in accessing the necessary finance to meet climate goals. The emerging ‘Data-to-Deal’ approach is a collaborative effort by 60 specialists, which aims to address this by providing a flexible framework of options, tailored to individual country circumstances, aiming to enhance core functions and capabilities; it serves as a basis for concrete action, informing capacity building, technical assistance, and research. This paper argues for the mainstreaming of a holistic approach to accessing climate finance by outlining the components of the Data-to- Deal pipeline and showing the effectiveness of Data-to-Deal through the demonstration of its successful implementation in Costa Rica.

16 January 2026 in Cambridge Open Engage
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Preprint
Open access
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HRH-Holger Rogner
H-Holger Rogner
JQJairo Quiros-Tortos
Jairo Quiros-Tortos
GAGeorgios Avgerinopoulos
Georgios Avgerinopoulos
JGJeeno Soa George
Jeeno Soa George
LDLara Dixon
Lara Dixon
MHMark Howells
Mark Howells
This report examines the prospective role of nuclear and Small Modular Reactors (SMRs) within the complex energy transitions of Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMICs), offering a replicable energy planning framework and informing potential UK Government support. It underscores that while variable renewable energy (VRE) sources are foundational for decarbonisation, their high penetration can introduce significant system-level costs, often uncaptured by simplistic Levelised Cost of Electricity (LCOE) metrics, necessitating complementary firm, dispatchable capacity. Modelling indicates that SMRs could integrate meaningfully into fossil-fuel heavy systems (with limited hydro and geothermal as so-called “firm” renewable capacity) from approximately 2037–2045. This integration would be driven by carbon constraints and reliability needs, potentially contributing over 20% of generation by 2055. Conversely, in hydropower- dominated systems (that provide “firm” renewable capacity), SMRs are projected to play a more limited role, typically less than 2% of generation, as existing hydro and increasingly cost-effective battery storage largely meet demand. The viability of SMRs is contingent upon specific “triggers”, notably their capital costs falling below approximately $6,000–7,500 MUSD/GWe, alongside carbon prices exceeding $73–78 USD/ton, respectively. (At lower carbon prices, fossil-fuel alternatives provide the required “firm” capacity). Note that these numbers will change over time (as the energy system is dynamic) and will require updating annually. Construction delays significantly escalate total system costs, primarily by necessitating reliance on more expensive, often fossil-fuel-based, backup generation and incurring higher capital costs over time.

14 November 2025 in Cambridge Open Engage
Verified
Preprint
Open access
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ASAnnie Flint Smith
Annie Flint Smith
TAThomas Alfstad
Thomas Alfstad
NGNadeem Goussous
Nadeem Goussous
JMJuan Jose Garcia Mendez
Juan Jose Garcia Mendez
HSHyeonyu Son
Hyeonyu Son
VFVivien Foster
Vivien Foster
This best practice brief presents Component 5 of the Data-to-Deal (D2D) framework, which addresses stakeholder engagement. This component focuses on the cross-cutting role of stakeholder engagement in enabling the development of effective climate strategies. Effective stakeholder engagement contributes to the technical design process, fosters political will, and enhances investment-readiness by demonstrating national ownership. Component 5 comprises three sub-components of successful stakeholder engagement: (i) Early and strategic engagement, (ii) Iterative and inclusive engagement mechanisms, and (iii) Institutionalising engagement for long-term ownership. These sub-components are embedded across the D2D framework, strengthening the legitimacy and feasibility of climate transition planning processes. The brief draws on various case studies, particularly from Costa Rica, Eswatini, and Chile, to illustrate the best stakeholder engagement practices for developing transition plans and successfully mobilising the finance required for implementation.