Using gridded daily temperature and rainfall data covering 30 years (1988–2017), this study investigates trends in rainfall, temperature, and extreme events in three agro-ecological settings in central Ethiopia. The Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to examine the trends and slope of changes in climate indices. The profile of farmers whose perception converges with or diverges from meteorological data was characterized using polling. The average annual temperature has increased by 0.4 and 0.3 °C per decade in the lowland and midland areas, respectively. Average annual rainfall has increased only in the midland areas by 178 mm per decade. Farmers’ perception of increasing temperature fairly aligns with meteorological data. However, there is a noticeable difference between farmers’ perception of rainfall and meteorological data. The perception of farmers with poor economic status, access to media, and higher social capital aligns with measured trends. Conversely, the perception of economically better-off and uneducated farmers diverges from meteorological data. Accurate perception is constrained by the failure of the traditional forecast methods to describe complex weather variabilities and lack of access to down-scaled weather information. The findings highlight the importance of availing specific and agro-ecologically relevant weather forecasts to overcome perceptual problems and to support effective adaptation.

There is a dearth of evidence on the socio-cultural aspects of climate change risk perception in developing countries. This study investigates the variation in farmers’ perception of the risks of climate change and variability by their socio-cultural characteristics. Data were collected from 810 randomly selected households in central Ethiopia using a structured questionnaire. Polling, a maximum likelihood prediction method of multivariate analysis that jointly evaluates the combined roles of different variables, allowing for non-parametric interactions, was used to analyse the data. The results show that households with a high risk perception have high accurate knowledge about climate change, experience of climatic events, value both societal and individual responsibilities to reduce the impact of climate change, and reside in the midland agro-ecological settings. On the other hand, a low descriptive norm, low social capital, lack of access to media, low level of education, and valuing autonomy characterize households with a low risk perception. The findings entail that communication strategies focusing on evidence-based knowledge about causes and consequences of and responses to climate change, past experience of climatic events, as well as fostering self-transcendence and openness-to-change values raise risk perception to engage farmers in adaptation actions.

Although most micro-level studies show the positive impact of adaptation on food security and household income, these are only a few of the outcomes adaptation is intended to achieve. Farmers’ livelihoods function in complex ways such that an understanding the multidimensional outcome of adaptation is important. These necessitate the use of multiple indicators in the evaluation of the impact of adaptation. Based on data collected from 810 randomly selected households in central Ethiopia, this study investigates the impacts of adaptation strategies on the sustainability of the livelihoods of farmers. The economic, social, and environmental outcomes were integrated to construct the Livelihood Sustainability Index. The endogenous switching regression model, which accounts for unobserved heterogeneity and possible endogeneity, was used to examine the impact of using adaptation strategies. With a mean score of 41, the farmers had lower levels of livelihood sustainability. Farmers switching crop type, diversifying crops, planting improved seeds, engaging in land management activities, and using irrigation had a higher livelihood sustainability index compared to the counterfactual case in which they did not use them. Non-farm employment and migration significantly increased livelihood sustainability for the using households. However, had these factors been used by the non-users, it would have resulted in reduced livelihood sustainability. Farmers using more than four adaptation strategies had more sustainable livelihoods than using fewer strategies. The findings affirm that adaptation contributes to livelihood improvement. However, since the farmers are far from achieving a higher level of sustainable livelihoods, policies shall focus on maximizing the returns to be obtained from using adaptation strategies. This includes improving access to ecosystem services through environmental protection measures, increasing production efficiency through improved access to and proper utilization of farm inputs, expanding irrigation facilities, creating decent employment opportunities, and enhancing farmers’ skills through entrepreneurial training.

Despite a surge of literature on migration and climate change, evidence on the impact of climate change and variability on migration is inconclusive and the roles of in-situ adaptation strategies in migration decisions are unclear. Focusing on smallholder farmers in central Ethiopia, this study investigates the effects of climate variables and the use of in-situ adaptation strategies on households’ migration decisions. The data were analysed using a multi-level discrete-time event-history model. The results show that rainfall increase during the short rainy season [March–May] reduces migration and that of the long rainy season [June–September] increases migration. Early onset of rain during both seasons reduces migration whereas late onset increases migration. The propensity to migrate was low for households using crop diversification but high for those changing crop type and engaging in non-farm activities. The findings suggest that rainfall amount and variability instigate migration for survival among vulnerable farmers through its adverse effect on crop production and food availability. Rainfall-related livelihood problems can be addressed and distress migration can be reduced through agro-technical supports of in-situ adaptation, promoting gainful employment in rural areas, increasing income-earning capacities of potential migrants, and widening pro-poor employment opportunities in urban areas.

In previous studies mainly focusing on determinants of adaptation, evidence of the dynamic process of adaptation decision-making is negligible. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of socio-cultural factors, changes in household characteristics, and climate variables on the transition from non-use to use of adaptation strategies. The study integrated primary data collected from households with secondary rainfall and temperature data. The quantitative and qualitative data were analysed using a dynamic random-effects probit model and a thematic approach, respectively. The result shows strong evidence of path dependence in which use of a strategy during the previous year significantly increases its current use. Climate-related risk perception and factual knowledge may not necessarily prompt adaptation action, whereas access to financial resources and farming-related trainings were consistent positive predictors of farmers’ adaptation decisions. The findings entail that economic capacity and the associated intrinsic motivation help few farmers to utilise robust and contesting adaptation strategies. For most households, economic problems and the consequent fatalistic attitude and risk-avoidance behaviour induce either non-use or use of responsive and accommodating strategies aimed at ensuring survival. Path dependence in non-use of adaptation strategies and sub-optimal adaptation actions demand effective institutional supports to address the behavioural and economic barriers of these households in order to build overall community resilience.