Using gridded daily temperature and rainfall data covering 30 years (1988–2017), this study investigates trends in rainfall, temperature, and extreme events in three agro-ecological settings in central Ethiopia. The Mann Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator were used to examine the trends and slope of changes in climate indices. The profile of farmers whose perception converges with or diverges from meteorological data was characterized using polling. The average annual temperature has increased by 0.4 and 0.3 °C per decade in the lowland and midland areas, respectively. Average annual rainfall has increased only in the midland areas by 178 mm per decade. Farmers’ perception of increasing temperature fairly aligns with meteorological data. However, there is a noticeable difference between farmers’ perception of rainfall and meteorological data. The perception of farmers with poor economic status, access to media, and higher social capital aligns with measured trends. Conversely, the perception of economically better-off and uneducated farmers diverges from meteorological data. Accurate perception is constrained by the failure of the traditional forecast methods to describe complex weather variabilities and lack of access to down-scaled weather information. The findings highlight the importance of availing specific and agro-ecologically relevant weather forecasts to overcome perceptual problems and to support effective adaptation.

Although most micro-level studies show the positive impact of adaptation on food security and household income, these are only a few of the outcomes adaptation is intended to achieve. Farmers’ livelihoods function in complex ways such that an understanding the multidimensional outcome of adaptation is important. These necessitate the use of multiple indicators in the evaluation of the impact of adaptation. Based on data collected from 810 randomly selected households in central Ethiopia, this study investigates the impacts of adaptation strategies on the sustainability of the livelihoods of farmers. The economic, social, and environmental outcomes were integrated to construct the Livelihood Sustainability Index. The endogenous switching regression model, which accounts for unobserved heterogeneity and possible endogeneity, was used to examine the impact of using adaptation strategies. With a mean score of 41, the farmers had lower levels of livelihood sustainability. Farmers switching crop type, diversifying crops, planting improved seeds, engaging in land management activities, and using irrigation had a higher livelihood sustainability index compared to the counterfactual case in which they did not use them. Non-farm employment and migration significantly increased livelihood sustainability for the using households. However, had these factors been used by the non-users, it would have resulted in reduced livelihood sustainability. Farmers using more than four adaptation strategies had more sustainable livelihoods than using fewer strategies. The findings affirm that adaptation contributes to livelihood improvement. However, since the farmers are far from achieving a higher level of sustainable livelihoods, policies shall focus on maximizing the returns to be obtained from using adaptation strategies. This includes improving access to ecosystem services through environmental protection measures, increasing production efficiency through improved access to and proper utilization of farm inputs, expanding irrigation facilities, creating decent employment opportunities, and enhancing farmers’ skills through entrepreneurial training.