Global drought extremes are projected to increase under future warming scenarios. However, global drought risk and pattern remain to be revealed below 1.5 and 2 °C warming levels. Here we used multi‐model simulations to estimate global drought trend based on multiple drought indicators. The frequency and duration of meteorological drought may increase much faster than surface soil moisture drought and root zone soil moisture drought under anthropogenic warming, with a probable ~36% (62%) increase in frequency and a ~15% (20%) increase in duration at 1.5 °C (2 °C) level relative to the reference period over the globe. A 5% (14%) increase of drought frequency is expected at 1.5 °C (2 °C) warming in the surface soil moisture, and a 5% (2%) increase of duration is also likely in the 0–10 cm soil layer. Unprecedented increased drought risk is anticipated at 2 °C level, with potential drought hot spots in North America, South America, southern Africa, Australia and Europe. Drought condition under future warming may be much worse in local areas. The drought frequency in the drylands is much less (>34%) than the humid areas, but the duration is much higher (>40%). The 2 °C relative to 1.5 °C warming is expected to bring higher drought risk than the 1.5 °C relative to 1 °C period with regard to the frequency.

Globally, wetlands have been severely damaged due to natural environment and human activities. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics of wetlands and their driving forces is essential for their effective protection. This study proposes a research framework to explore the interaction between the natural environment and human activities and its impact on wetland changes, by introducing Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) model, then applying the methodology in Wuhan, a typical wetland city in China. The validity and reliability evaluation indicated that the PLS-SEM model is reasonable. The results showed that the area of wetlands in Wuhan decreased by 10.98% in 1990-2018 and four obvious direct pathways of influence were found. Positive soil and terrain conditions are conducive to maintaining wetlands, while rapid urbanization drastically reduce the distribution of wetlands. It is remarkable that the impact of climate on wetlands is gradually shifting from positive to negative. Furthermore, four potential indirect impact pathways affecting wetland distribution shown that urbanization and climate enhance the negative impact of terrain on wetland distribution, while their impacts on soil weaken soil's direct positive impact. This study provides a quantitative methodology for determining the causes of wetland loss; it can also be applied to other cities or regions, which is essential for applying more effective measures to protect wetlands.