Risk management has reduced vulnerability to floods and droughts globally^1,2, yet their impacts are still increasing³. An improved understanding of the causes of changing impacts is therefore needed, but has been hampered by a lack of empirical data^4,5. On the basis of a global dataset of 45 pairs of events that occurred within the same area, we show that risk management generally reduces the impacts of floods and droughts but faces difficulties in reducing the impacts of unprecedented events of a magnitude not previously experienced. If the second event was much more hazardous than the first, its impact was almost always higher. This is because management was not designed to deal with such extreme events: for example, they exceeded the design levels of levees and reservoirs. In two success stories, the impact of the second, more hazardous, event was lower, as a result of improved risk management governance and high investment in integrated management. The observed difficulty of managing unprecedented events is alarming, given that more extreme hydrological events are projected owing to climate change³.

The objective of this study is to evaluate two satellite rainfall products Global Precipitation Measurement Integrated MultisatellitE Retrievals and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42V7 (GPM IMERG and TRMM 3B42V7) in southern Tibetan Plateau region, with special focus on the dependence of products' performance on topography and rainfall intensity. Over 500 in situ rain gauges constitute an unprecedentedly dense rain gauge network over this region and provide an exceptional resource for ground validation of satellite rainfall estimates. Our evaluation centers on the rainy season from May to October in 2014. Results indicate that (1) GPM product outperforms TRMM at all spatial scales and elevation ranges in detecting daily rainfall accumulation; (2) rainfall accumulation over the entire rainy season is negatively correlated with mean elevation for rain gauges and the two satellite rainfall products, while the performance of TRMM also significantly correlates with topographic variations; (3) in terms of the ability of rainfall detection, false alarming ratio of TRMM (21%) is larger than that of GPM (14%), while missing ratio of GPM (13%) is larger than that of TRMM (9%). GPM tends to underestimate the amount of light rain events of 0–1 mm/d, while the opposite (overestimation) is true for TRMM. GPM shows better detecting ability for light rainfall (0–5 mm/d) events but there is no detection skill for both GPM and TRMM at high‐elevation (>4500 m) regions. Our results not only highlight the superiority of GPM to TRMM in southern Tibetan Plateau region but also recommend that further improvement on the rainfall retrieval algorithm is needed by considering topographical influences for both GPM and TRMM rainfall products.

Previous projections show consistent increases in river flows of Asian Water Towers under future climate change. Here we find non-monotonic changes in river flows for seven major rivers originating from the Tibetan Plateau at the warming levels of 1.5 °C, 2.0 °C, and 3.0 °C based on an observation-constrained hydrological model. The annual mean streamflow for seven rivers at 1.5 °C warming level decreases by 0.1–3.2% relative to the present-day climate condition, and increases by 1.5–12% at 3.0 °C warming level. The shifting river flows for the Yellow, Yangtze, Brahmaputra, and Ganges are mostly influenced by projected increases in rainfall, but those for the Mekong, Salween, and Indus are dictated by the relative changes in rainfall, snowmelt and glacier melt. Reduced river flows in a moderately warmed climate threaten water security in riparian countries, while elevated flood risks are expected with further temperature increases over the Tibetan Plateau.

We examine the upper tail of flood peak distributions through analyses of annual peak observations from more than 8,000 U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) stream gaging stations and through hydrometeorological analyses of the storms that produce the most extreme floods. We focus on the distribution of the upper tail ratio, which is defined as the peak discharge for the flood of record at a stream gaging station divided by the sample 10‐year flood magnitude. The 14 June 1903 Heppner storm, which produced an upper tail ratio of 200, was the product of a hailstorm that formed along the Blue Mountains in eastern Oregon, a region dominated by snowmelt flooding. A striking contrast between record flood peaks and the larger distribution of annual flood peaks in the United States is in the seasonality of flood occurrence, with record floods reflecting a much stronger contribution from warm season thunderstorm systems. Mountainous terrain and intense convective rainfall are important elements of the geography and hydrometeorology of extreme upper tail ratio flood peaks. The distribution of upper tail ratio values for USGS stream gaging stations does not depend on basin area, a result which is consistent with scaling results based on extreme value theory. Downscaling simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model are used to examine the storm environment of the 1903 Heppner storm, along with two other record flood peaks near the Blue Mountains of eastern Oregon from the USGS miscellaneous flood record, the July 1956 Meyers Canyon flood and the July 1965 Lane Canyon flood.