Objective: This study aimed to create an ideal machine learning model to predict mechanical complications in adult spinal deformity (ASD) surgery based on GAPB (modified global alignment and proportion scoring with body mass index and bone mineral density) factors.Methods: Between January 2009 and December 2018, 238 consecutive patients with ASD, who received at least 4-level fusions and were followed-up for ≥ 2 years, were included in the study. The data were stratified into training (n = 167, 70%) and test (n = 71, 30%) sets and input to machine learning algorithms, including logistic regression, random forest gradient boosting system, and deep neural network.Results: Body mass index, bone mineral density, the relative pelvic version score, the relative lumbar lordosis score, and the relative sagittal alignment score of the global alignment and proportion score were significantly different in the training and test sets (p < 0.05) between the complication and no complication groups. In the training set, the area under receiver operating characteristics (AUROCs) for logistic regression, gradient boosting, random forest, and deep neural network were 0.871 (0.817–0.925), 0.942 (0.911–0.974), 1.000 (1.000–1.000), and 0.947 (0.915–0.980), respectively, and the accuracies were 0.784 (0.722–0.847), 0.868 (0.817–0.920), 1.000 (1.000–1.000), and 0.856 (0.803–0.909), respectively. In the test set, the AUROCs were 0.785 (0.678–0.893), 0.808 (0.702–0.914), 0.810 (0.710–0.910), and 0.730 (0.610–0.850), respectively, and the accuracies were 0.732 (0.629–0.835), 0.718 (0.614–0.823), 0.732 (0.629–0.835), and 0.620 (0.507–0.733), respectively. The random forest achieved the best predictive performance on the training and test dataset.Conclusion: This study created a comprehensive model to predict mechanical complications after ASD surgery. The best prediction accuracy was 73.2% for predicting mechanical complications after ASD surgery.

Objective: This study aimed to analyze the prediction rate of the modified Global Alignment and Proportion (GAP) scoring system with body mass index and bone mineral density (GAPB) in each GAP of the 3 categories.Methods: Between January 2009 and December 2016, 203 consecutive patients with adult spinal deformity (ASD) underwent corrective fusion of more than 4 levels and were followedup for more than 2 years. As a validation of the GAPB, the GAPB was divided into tertiles (Q1, Q2, Q3) for each section of the GAP score. Each patient’s GAP score and GAPB system complication rate were examined.Results: Of the 203 patients, 89 patients (44%) developed mechanical complications after ASD surgery. A GAP score analysis of the patients found that 42 patients were proportioned, 85 patients were moderately disproportioned, and 76 patients were severely disproportioned. Mechanical complications occurred with increasing GAPB in the proportioned group, but were not statistically significant (p = 0.0534). However, mechanical complications occurred in a statistically significant manner in the moderately disproportioned and severely disproportioned groups as GAPB increased (p < 0.001).Conclusion: The GAPB system showed improved predictability for mechanical complications after surgery for ASD in each category of the GAP score.

Many studies have reported positive surgical outcomes and decreased mortality after spine surgery in the elderly population, including patients between 85 and 90 years of age. Here, in addition to patient age, we investigated the influence of frailty on short and long-term mortality in octogenarians after lumbar surgery. We performed a retrospective analysis of 162 patients over 80 years of age who underwent posterior lumbar fusion or decompressive laminectomy between January 2011 and September 2016. We examined patient survival and modified frailty index (mFI) from medical records. By October 2019, 29 of 162 patients had expired (follow up period: 1-105 months). Three-month mortality was 1.9%, and one-year mortality was 4.9%. Frailty did not affect long-term survival at one year but was associated with 3-month mortality (p=0.024). There was no relationship in long-term survival according to frailty in patients 80 years of age or older, but a difference was identified in short-term mortality. When making a surgical decision for lumbar spine surgery in frail patients over 80 years of age, surgeons should pay attention to the short-term prognosis.