Global circulation models forecasts indicate a future temperature and rainfall pattern modification worldwide. Such phenomena will become particularly evident in Europe where climate modifications could be more severe than the average change at the global level. As such, river flow regimes are expected to change, with resultant impacts on aquatic and riparian ecosystems. Riparian woodlands are among the most endangered ecosystems on earth and provide vital services to interconnected ecosystems and human societies. However, they have not been the object of many studies designed to spatially and temporally quantify how these ecosystems will react to climate change-induced flow regimes. Our goal was to assess the effects of climate-changed flow regimes on the existing riparian vegetation of three different European flow regimes. Cases studies were selected in the light of the most common watershed alimentation modes occurring across European regions, with the objective of appraising expected alterations in the riparian elements of fluvial systems due to climate change. Riparian vegetation modeling was performed using the CASiMiR-vegetation model, which bases its computation on the fluvial disturbance of the riparian patch mosaic. Modeling results show that riparian woodlands may undergo not only at least moderate changes for all flow regimes, but also some dramatic adjustments in specific areas of particular vegetation development stages. There are circumstances in which complete annihilation is feasible. Pluvial flow regimes, like the ones in southern European rivers, are those likely to experience more pronounced changes. Furthermore, regardless of the flow regime, younger and more water-dependent individuals are expected to be the most affected by climate change.

Biotic and abiotic interactions between the riparian zone and the river determine relevant hydrological processes and exert control over riparian and bordering upland vegetation types. Vegetation growth and development are mainly controlled by water availability on semi-arid regions, where a moisture gradient determines the transition between the densely vegetated riparian zone and the semi-arid upland. To reproduce this spatial distribution, a mathematical model named RibAV is presented. Its conceptualization is based on the main ecohydrological modelling approaches and field expertise. The implementation of RibAV that is proposed in this paper allows the simulation of the distribution of three plant functional types [herbaceous riparian vegetation (HRV), woody riparian vegetation (WRV) and terrestrial vegetation (TV)] within the riparian zone. An evapotranspiration index (E_idx) obtained through RibAV is used as a criterion for plant absence/presence prediction. Two permanent river reaches of semi-arid Mediterranean basins, the Terde reach (Mijares River, Spain) and the Lorcha reach (Serpis River, Spain), have been selected as case studies for the calibration and validation of the model, respectively. Several criteria based on the confusion matrix were used to analyse the efficiency of RibAV on the prediction of plant distribution. The satisfactory performance of the model establishing the distribution of the riparian vegetation types and the limit between this zone and the bordering upland are demonstrated in this paper; the strength of the E_idx to classify plant functional types in riparian semi-arid environments is additionally proven. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Usually, megacities expand without proper planning in a context of demographic growth and are increasingly dependent on the natural resources related to the occupied area. This is a major challenge for the sustainable management of these territories, justifying the need for a better knowledge of land use/land cover (LULC) distribution and characteristics to observe spatial anthropogenic dynamics. In this study, the Bogotá river basin and the Bogotá megacity were analyzed as a case study. The main objective of this work was to analyze the historical LULC dynamics from 1985 to 2014. Reliable forecasting scenarios were developed using the Land Change Modeler to support sustainable management and planning. Results show an expansion of the Bogotá megacity toward the Northeast and an increase of urban areas within the basin. These changes implied a loss of 58% of forest surface, a strategic ecosystem, from 1985 to 2014. This dynamic is expected to continue, with a 50% increase of urban areas between 2012 to 2050, thus the megacity and neighbor cities potentially become an “urban continuum”. A replacement of crop and pasture lands near the city is expected, even though Bogotá lands are among the best agricultural lands in the Andean region of Colombia.