The development of COVID-19 vaccine is highly concerned by all countries in the world. So far, many kinds of COVID-19 vaccines have entered phase III clinical trial. However, it is difficult to deliver COVID-19 vaccines efficiently and safely to the areas affected by the epidemic. This paper focuses on vaccine transportation in a supply chain model composed of one distributor and one retailer (clinic or hospital), in which the distributor procures COVID-19 vaccines from the manufacturer and then resells them to the retailer. Distributor detects the activity level of the vaccines, and retailer is responsible for transportation of the vaccines. Firstly, we establish a difference equations model with time-delay. Secondly, we investigate the impact of time-delay on the stability of vaccine supply chain. In addition, we explore the influence of decision adjustment speed of the distributor (or retailer) on the stability of vaccine supply chain. Finally, we verify the theoretical results by a two-dimensional bifurcation diagram, the largest Lyapunov exponent, entropy, and domain of attraction. The results show that when the decision delay-time or the adjustment speed of decision variables exceeds a certain threshold, it brings a negative impact on the stability of vaccine supply chain system. The stability domain of the system shrinks as customers’ sensitivity to cold chain transportation decreases and by contrast expends as customers’ sensitivity to vaccine prices decreases. When the vaccine supply chain is in a state of chaos, the effect of external control over the system is superior to that of internal control over the system.
17 November 2022 in Applied Mathematical Modelling
In this paper, we investigate a supply chain consisting of an OEM (i.e., original equipment manufacturer) and a CM (contract manufacturer), in which the OEM decides design effort level and marketing level, and the CM makes decision on product manufacturing effort level. We establish a three-dimensional discrete dynamic model with time delay. Firstly, the sufficient conditions for NeimarkSacker bifurcation are obtained by using different combinations of decision delay periods as bifurcation parameters, and the effect of the adjustment speeds of decision variables on the system stability and impact of time delay on the system stability are discussed, respectively. Secondly, we perform numerical simulation of this model from the perspective of entropy theory. Finally, we propose two methods to control chaos. Results show that when the time delay or the adjustment speed of decision variable exceed a certain threshold, the system will be led into a chaotic state and the entropy of the system will increase. For alleviating the negative effects of chaotic systems, we introduce control parameters to make efficient control on the chaos. At the critical point, the critical value of the adjustment speed of design effort level (or marketing level) of OEM increases as the adjustment speed of the manufacturing effort level of CM decreases, and vice versa.
Purpose: The purpose of this study is to analyze the short-term development pattern and long-term development trend of the digital supply chain.Design/methodology/approach: This study uses the combination of short-term game and long-term evolutionary game theory.Findings: Findings of this study suggest that irrational decisions can make the evolutionary path of the digital supply chain complex and unpredictable.Originality/value: This study proposes an evolutionary game model for the digital supply chain that can provide good guidance for the digitalization process of enterprises.