Given the rapidly growing burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in Asia, this study forecasts the CVD burden and associated risk factors in Asia from 2025 to 2050. Data from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 study was used to construct regression models predicting prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) attributed to CVD and risk factors in Asia in the coming decades. Between 2025 and 2050, crude cardiovascular mortality is expected to rise 91.2% despite a 23.0% decrease in the age-standardised cardiovascular mortality rate (ASMR). Ischaemic heart disease (115 deaths per 100,000 population) and stroke (63 deaths per 100,000 population) will remain leading drivers of ASMR in 2050. Central Asia will have the highest ASMR (676 deaths per 100,000 population), more than three-fold that of Asia overall (186 deaths per 100,000 population), while high-income Asia sub-regions will incur an ASMR of 22 deaths per 100,000 in 2050. High systolic blood pressure will contribute the highest ASMR throughout Asia (105 deaths per 100,000 population), except in Central Asia where high fasting plasma glucose will dominate (546 deaths per 100,000 population). This forecast forewarns an almost doubling in crude cardiovascular mortality by 2050 in Asia, with marked heterogeneity across sub-regions. Atherosclerotic diseases will continue to dominate, while high systolic blood pressure will be the leading risk factor. This was supported by the 10.13039/501100011744 NUHS Seed Fund (NUHSRO/2022/058/RO5+6/Seed-Mar/03), 10.13039/501100001349 National Medical Research Council Research Training Fellowship (MH 095:003/008-303), 10.13039/501100001352 National University of Singapore Yong Loo Lin School of Medicine's Junior Academic Fellowship Scheme, 10.13039/501100011744 NUHS Clinician Scientist Program (NCSP2.0/2024/NUHS/NCWS) and the CArdiovascular DiseasE National Collaborative 10.13039/100005721 Enterprise (CADENCE) National Clinical Translational Program (MOH-001277-01).
1 January 2016 in International Journal of Cardiology
More than 4.2 billion inhabitants populate the Asia-Pacific region. Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is now a major cause of death and disability in this region with in-hospital mortality typically exceeding 5%. Yet, the region still lacks consensus on the best approach to overcoming its specific challenges in reducing mortality from ACS. The Asia-Pacific Real world evIdenCe on Outcome and Treatment of ACS (APRICOT) project reviewed current published and unpublished registry data, unmet needs in ACS management and possible approaches towards improving ACS-related mortality in the region. There was striking heterogeneity in the use of invasive procedures, pharmacologic practice (hospitalization/post-discharge), and in short- and long-term clinical outcomes across healthcare systems; this heterogeneity was perceived to be far greater than in Western Europe or the United States. 'Benchmark' short-term clinical outcomes are preferred over long-term outcomes due to difficulties in follow-up, recording and maintenance of medication adherence in a geographically large and culturally diverse region. Key 'barriers' towards improving outcomes include patient education (pain awareness, consequences of missing medication and secondary prevention), geographical landscape (urban vs. metropolitan), limited long-term adherence to guideline-based management and widespread adoption of cost-based rather than value-based healthcare systems. Initiatives to overcome these barriers should include implementation of pre-hospital management strategies, toolkits to aid in-hospital treatment, greater community outreach with online patient/physician education and telemedicine, sustainable economic models to improve accessibility to effective pharmacotherapies and the acquisition of high-quality 'real-world' regional data to tailor secondary prevention initiatives that meet the unique needs of countries in this region.