Accurate medium- and long-term power load forecasting is of great significance for the scientific planning and safe operation of power systems. Monthly power load has multiscale time series correlation and seasonality. The existing models face the problems of insufficient feature extraction and a large volume of prediction models constructed according to seasons. Therefore, a hybrid feature pyramid CNN-LSTM model with seasonal inflection month correction for medium- and long-term power load forecasting is proposed. The model is constructed based on linear and nonlinear combination forecasting. With the aim to address the insufficient extraction of multiscale temporal correlation in load, a time series feature pyramid structure based on causal dilated convolution is proposed, and the accuracy of the model is improved by feature extraction and fusion of different scales. For the problem that the model volume of seasonal prediction is too large, a seasonal inflection monthly load correction strategy is proposed to construct a unified model to predict and correct the monthly load of the seasonal change inflection point, so as to improve the model’s ability to deal with seasonality. The model proposed in this paper is verified on the actual power data in Shaoxing City.
Due to the limited number of air quality monitoring stations, the data collected are limited. Using supervised learning for air quality fine-grained analysis, that is used to predict the air quality index (AQI) of the locations without air quality monitoring stations, may lead to overfitting in that the models have superior performance on the training set but perform poorly on the validation and testing set. In order to avoid this problem in supervised learning, the most effective solution is to increase the amount of data, but in this study, this is not realistic. Fortunately, semi-supervised learning can obtain knowledge from unlabeled samples, thus solving the problem caused by insufficient training samples. Therefore, a co-training semi-supervised learning method combining the K-nearest neighbors (KNN) algorithm and deep neural network (DNN) is proposed, named KNN-DNN, which makes full use of unlabeled samples to improve the model performance for fine-grained air quality analysis. Temperature, humidity, the concentrations of pollutants and source type are used as input variables, and the KNN algorithm and DNN model are used as learners. For each learner, the labeled data are used as the initial training set to model the relationship between the input variables and the AQI. In the iterative process, by labeling the unlabeled samples, a pseudo-sample with the highest confidence is selected to expand the training set. The proposed model is evaluated on a real dataset collected by monitoring stations from 1 February to 30 April 2018 over a region between 118° E–118°53′ E and 39°45′ N–39°89′ N. Practical application shows that the proposed model has a significant effect on the fine-grained analysis of air quality. The coefficient of determination between the predicted value and the true value is 0.97, which is better than other models.
The accurate prediction of PM2.5 concentrations is important for environmental protection. The accuracy of the commonly used prediction methods is not high; so, this paper proposes a PM2.5 concentration prediction method based on a hybrid learning model. The Top-of-Atmosphere Reflectance (TOAR), PM2.5 data decomposed by wavelets, and meteorological data were used as input features to build an integrated prediction model using random forest and LightGBM, which was applied to PM2.5 concentration prediction in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region. The practical application showed that the proposed method using TOAR, incorporating wavelet decomposition with meteorological element data, had an improvement of 0.06 in the R2 of the model accuracy and a reduction of 2.93 and 1.14 in the root mean square error (RMSE) and mean absolute error (MAE), respectively, over the model using Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD). Our model had a prediction accuracy of R2 of 0.91, which was better than the other models. We used this model to estimate and analyze the variation in PM2.5 concentrations in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei region, and the results were the same as the actual PM2.5 concentration distribution trend. Obviously, the proposed model has a high prediction accuracy and can avoid the errors caused by the limitations of the AOD inversion method.
A nonlinear hysteresis model of magneto-mechanical-thermo coupling for Terfenol-D materials is presented according to Wiss ferromagnetic theory, thermodynamics relations and Jiles–Atherton model. Numerical calculation and experimental results show that the mode well reflects the magnetostrictive characteristics of Terfenol-D rod under the coupling of stress, temperature and magnetic field. A fiber Bragg grating current transformer based on Terfenol-D material is designed according to the strain sensing mechanism of fiber Bragg grating and the demodulation principle of unbalanced M–Z interferometer. The theoretical analysis and research on the working characteristics of the fiber current transformer under the influence of different prestressing force and bias current are carried out. The results are important for the design and application of the current transformer with the Terfenol-D material.