Ecoepidemiological scenarios for Chagas disease transmission are complex, so vector control measures to decrease human–vector contact and prevent infection transmission are difficult to implement in all geographic contexts. This study assessed the geographic abundance patterns of two vector species of Chagas disease: Triatoma maculata (Erichson, 1848) and Rhodnius pallescens (Barber, 1932) in Latin America. We modeled their potential distribution using the maximum entropy algorithm implemented in Maxent and calculated distances to their niche centroid by fitting a minimum-volume ellipsoid. In addition, to determine which method would accurately explain geographic abundance patterns, we compared the correlation between population abundance and the distance to the ecological niche centroid (DNC) and between population abundance and Maxent environmental suitability. The potential distribution estimated for T. maculata showed that environmental suitability covers a large area, from Panama to Northern Brazil. R. pallescens showed a more restricted potential distribution, with environmental suitability covering mostly the coastal zone of Costa Rica and some areas in Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula in Mexico, northern Colombia, Acre, and Rondônia states in Brazil, as well as a small region of the western Brazilian Amazon. We found a negative slope in the relationship between population abundance and the DNC in both species. R. pallecens has a more extensive potential latitudinal range than previously reported, and the distribution model for T. maculata corroborates previous studies. In addition, population abundance increases according to the niche centroid proximity, indicating that population abundance is limited by the set of scenopoetic variables at coarser scales (non-interactive variables) used to determine the ecological niche. These findings might be used by public health agencies in Latin America to implement actions and support programs for disease prevention and vector control, identifying areas in which to expand entomological surveillance and maintain chemical control, in order to decrease human–vector contact.

Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by Culicoides spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and Culicoides insignis in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (n = 145) and C. insignis (n = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence–absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru.

Climate variability has made us change our perspective on the study of insect pests and pest insects, focusing on preserving or maintaining efficient production systems in the world economy. The four species of the genus Anastrepha were selected for this study due to their colonization and expansion characteristics. Models of the potential distribution of these species are scarce in most neotropical countries, and there is a current and pressing demand to carry out this type of analysis in the face of the common scenarios of climate variability. We analyzed 370 presence records with statistical metrics and 16 bioclimatic variables. The MaxEnt method was used to evaluate the effect of the ENSO cycle on the potential distribution of the species Anastrepha grandis (Macquart), Anastrepha serpetina (Wiedemann), Anastrepha obliqua (Macquart), and Anastrepha striata (Schiner) as imported horticultural pests in the neotropics and Panama. A total of 3472 candidate models were obtained for each species, and the environmental variables with the greatest contribution to the final models were LST range and LST min for A. grandis, PRECIP range and PRECIP min for A. serpentina, LST range and LST min for A. obliqua, and LST min and LST max for A. striata. The percentage expansion of the range of A. grandis in all environmental scenarios was 26.46 and the contraction of the range was 30.80; the percentage expansion of the range of A. serpentina in all environmental scenarios was 3.15 and the contraction of the range was 28.49; the percentage expansion of the range of A. obliqua in all environmental scenarios was 5.71 and the contraction of the range was 3.40; and the percentage expansion of the range of A. striata in all environmental scenarios was 41.08 and the contraction of the range was 7.30, and we selected the best model, resulting in a wide distribution (suitable areas) of these species in the neotropics that was influenced by the variability of climatic events (El Niño, Neutral, and La Niña). Information is provided on the phytosanitary surveillance systems of the countries in areas where these species could be established, which is useful for defining policies and making decisions on integrated management plans according to sustainable agriculture.

Visceral Leishmaniasis (VL) is the most severe of the three forms of Leishmaniasis. In the Americas, Brazil and Colombia present more than 90 % of the cases in the region. Our aim in this research was to estimate the association of the incidence rate of Visceral Leishmaniasis with the following environmental variables: the percentage of area suitable for the vector Lutzomyia longipalpis, the episodes of La Niña and El Niño, the Brazilian and Colombian biomes. Epidemiological data were obtained from the Brazilian Notifiable Diseases Information System and the Colombian National Public Health Surveillance System. Environmental data were downloaded from the NASA Giovanni web app, the Modis Sensor database, and the meteorological agencies of Australia, Japan, and the United States of America. Records of the presence of Lu. longipalpis were obtained from public databases and previous studies. As a result, the incidence per 10,000 inhabitants with LEBS for each El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode showed the largest values during El Niño 2015-2016, mainly in Brazil's Northeast and Central regions and the Northeast region of Colombia. Compared with the Neutral 2012-2014 episode, the episodes of El Niño 2015-2016 and La Niña 2010-2011 showed an average increase in the monthly incidence rate of VL, and the average increase was higher during El Niño 2015-2016 (aIRR = 2.304 vs.1.453) We found a positive association between the incidence rate of VL and the El Niño 2015-2016 episode and an impressive% of area suitable for the vector Lu. longipalpis in the Amazon region.An increase of 1 % in the area suitable for the vector Lu. longipalpis leads to an average rise of 0.8 % in the monthly incidence rate of VL. Our study shows a possible association between VL incidence and ENSO, with the most considerable incidence rates observed during El Niño 2015-2016 in Brazil's Northeast and Central regions and the Northeast region of Colombia. The present study is very important to better understand the Visceral Leishmaniasis transmission dynamics.

Climate change has affected the geographical distributions of most species worldwide; in particular, insects of economic importance inhabiting tropical regions have been impacted. Current and future predictions of change in geographic distribution are frequently included in species distribution models (SDMs). The potential spatial distributions of the fruit fly Anastrepha striata Schiner, the main species of agricultural importance in guava crops, under current and possible future scenarios in Colombia were modeled, and the establishment risk was assessed for each guava-producing municipality in the country. SDMs were developed using 221 geographical records in conjunction with nine scenopoetic variables. The model for current climate conditions indicated an extensive suitable area for the establishment of A. striata in the Andean region, smaller areas in the Caribbean and Pacific, and almost no areas in the Orinoquia and Amazonian regions. A brief discussion regarding the area's suitability for the fly is offered. According to the results, altitude is one of the main factors that direct the distribution of A. striata in the tropics. The Colombian guava-producing municipalities were classified according to the degree of vulnerability to fly establishment as follows: 42 were high risk, 16 were intermediate risk, and 17 were low risk. The implementation of future integrated management plans must include optimal spatial data and must consider environmental aspects, such as those suggested by the models presented here. Control decisions should aim to mitigate the positive relationship between global warming and the increase in the dispersal area of the fruit fly.