Wilfredo Arque Chunga

Wilfredo Arque Chunga


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

4Years (2023-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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30 March 2023 in Viruses
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
DNDennis Alexander Navarro
Dennis Alexander Navarro
HHHeydi Ramos Huere
Heydi Ramos Huere
RBRenzo Vera Buendia
Renzo Vera Buendia
Miguel RojasMiguel Rojas
Miguel Rojas
WCWilfredo Arque Chunga
Wilfredo Arque Chunga
MAMariano Altamiranda-Saavedra
Mariano Altamiranda-Saavedra
Bluetongue virus (BTV) is an arbovirus that is transmitted between domestic and wild ruminants by Culicoides spp. Its worldwide distribution depends on competent vectors and suitable environmental ecosystems that are becoming affected by climate change. Therefore, we evaluated whether climate change would influence the potential distribution and ecological niche of BTV and Culicoides insignis in Peru. Here, we analyzed BTV (n = 145) and C. insignis (n = 22) occurrence records under two shared socioeconomic pathway scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585) with five primary general circulation models (GCMs) using the kuenm R package v.1.1.9. Then, we obtained binary presence–absence maps and represented the risk of transmission of BTV and niche overlapping. The niche model approach showed that north and east Peru presented suitability in the current climate scenario and they would have a decreased risk of BTV, whilst its vector would be stable and expand with high agreement for the five GCMs. In addition, its niche overlap showed that the two niches almost overlap at present and would completely overlap with one another in future climate scenarios. These findings might be used to determine the areas of highest priority for entomological and virological investigations and surveillance in order to control and prevent bluetongue infections in Peru.