Long-term changes in North American monsoon (NAM) precipitation intensity in the southwestern United States are evaluated through the use of convective-permitting model simulations of objectively identified severe weather events during “historical past” (1950–70) and “present day” (1991–2010) periods. Severe weather events are the days on which the highest atmospheric instability and moisture occur within a long-term regional climate simulation. Simulations of severe weather event days are performed with convective-permitting (2.5 km) grid spacing, and these simulations are compared with available observed precipitation data to evaluate the model performance and to verify any statistically significant model-simulated trends in precipitation. Statistical evaluation of precipitation extremes is performed using a peaks-over-threshold approach with a generalized Pareto distribution. A statistically significant long-term increase in atmospheric moisture and instability is associated with an increase in extreme monsoon precipitation in observations and simulations of severe weather events, corresponding to similar behavior in station-based precipitation observations in the Southwest. Precipitation is becoming more intense within the context of the diurnal cycle of convection. The largest modeled increases in extreme-event precipitation occur in central and southwestern Arizona, where mesoscale convective systems account for a majority of monsoon precipitation and where relatively large modeled increases in precipitable water occur. Therefore, it is concluded that a more favorable thermodynamic environment in the southwestern United States is facilitating stronger organized monsoon convection during at least the last 20 years.

The authors analyzed an extensive precipitation dataset available for the Mexico City basin that included hourly precipitation in various sectors of the city from 1993 to 2007. Observations indicated that significant changes occurred in the timing and number of intense events (precipitation rate >20 mm h⁻¹) over this time period. Alternative hypotheses that changes in the emission of aerosol pollutants or in the land use can result in the observed variations are tested. The Weather Research and Forecasting Model was used to simulate September precipitation from 2002 to 2011 at the peak of the wet season. Changes were introduced to the microphysical scheme as a proxy for differences in the aerosol population and the droplet activation spectra. Simulations were also performed with the land use of the urban areas set up to represent older and more current conditions. Results indicate that increased pollution (decreased urban area) led to an average precipitation decrease over the mountain areas of 20%–40% (10%–20%) and an increase of 20% (30%) to the east of Mexico City. The timing of intense precipitation shifts from 1900 to 1600 LT for the polluted and decreased urban area cases when compared to a control experiment. These results add valuable information about how precipitation is modified by complex terrain and surface exchange processes in large urban areas under wet conditions.

Artículo de publicación ISIUrban pollution can often impact surrounding, non-urban regions, through advection and dispersal of pollutants by the prevailing winds. Urban regions located upstream of high mountains, such as the Andes, can potentially impact the cryosphere by deposition of particles onto the surface of the snowpack and glaciers. Santiago, the capital of Chile, has more than 6 million inhabitants and regularly experiences episodes of severe pollution, particularly during the austral winter. Some studies have hypothesized that particle pollution from Santiago can reach the cryosphere downwind of the city, but the scarcity of measurements made high in the mountains prevents the validation of mesoscale models so the proof of actual impact remains elusive. A research project was designed to provide some insight into this question. The Pollution Impact on Snow in the Cordillera - Experiments and Simulations (PISCES) project was carried out in 2014 and includes both observational and modeling components. A five-week field campaign was conducted at the end of winter, at an elevated site in a mountain valley, 65 km to the southeast of the center of Santiago, to characterize some aspects of particulate pollution. During synoptic conditions that result in clear days at the site, the mesoscale mountain-valley circulation is effective in transporting pollutants upwards during the day, leading to diluted particle concentrations beyond the summits of the highest peaks. Cloudy days with reduced up-valley circulation do not show increased concentrations associated with transport. Back trajectories indicate that air masses reaching the site during the field campaign are seldom influenced by pollution from Santiago

This work examines the origin of atmospheric water vapor arriving to the western North American monsoon (WNAM) region over a 34-year period (1981–2014) using a Lagrangian approach. This methodology computes budgets of evaporation minus precipitation (E−P) by calculating changes in the specific humidity of thousands of air particles advected into the study area by the observed winds. The length of the period analyzed (34 years) allows the method to identify oceanic and terrestrial sources of moisture to the WNAM region from a climatological perspective. During the wet season, the WNAM region itself is on average the main evaporative source, followed by the Gulf of California. However, water vapor originating from the Caribbean Sea, the Gulf of Mexico, and terrestrial eastern Mexico is found to influence regional-scale rainfall generation. Enhanced (reduced) moisture transport from the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico from 4 to 6 days before precipitation events seems to be responsible for increased (decreased) rainfall intensity on regional scales during the monsoon peak. Westward propagating mid- to upper-level inverted troughs (IVs) seem to favor these water vapor fluxes from the east. In particular, a 200 % increase in the moisture flux from the Caribbean Sea to the WNAM region is found to be followed by the occurrence of heavy precipitation in the WNAM area a few days later. Low-level troughs off the coast of northwestern Mexico and upper-level IVs over the Gulf of Mexico are also related to these extreme rainfall events.

Precipitation, low‐level flow and atmospheric moisture transport fields over the Intra‐Americas region from a WRF multi‐decadal simulation are presented. The period of analysis is 1982‐2012, and the focus is on mean monthly states and their variability. WRF results are compared to global precipitation products and to the Interim Reanalysis from the ECWMF (ERA‐Interim). An analysis of the coupling between precipitation over northern South America and regional scale sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and winds within ERA‐Interim and WRF is also presented. Over land, precipitation biases in WRF are mostly positive, especially over Central America and northern South America. This bias is associated with an excess in atmospheric moisture convergence in WRF compared to ERA‐Interim, which in turn is related to stronger low‐level circulation structures and differences in the moisture transport field between WRF and ERA‐Interim at the regional scale. The largest differences in the flow are observed over the eastern Pacific, where the flow is correlated with precipitation over southern Mexico, Central America and northern South America during the boreal summer. During early winter, correlation patterns of WRF precipitation and SST anomalies over the tropical Pacific are substantially weaker over western Texas and northwestern South America compared to the coupling between the global precipitation products and observed SSTs. For northwestern South America, the low correlation seems to be associated to a lack of coupling between regional scale winds and SST anomalies. During the boreal summer, the coupling between Caribbean SSTs and precipitation over parts of Mexico and Central America is stronger in WRF compared to observation‐based products.