This study assesses how the coronavirus pandemic (COVID-19) affects the intraday multifractal properties of eight European stock markets by using five-minute index data ranging from 1 January 2020 to 23 March 2020. The Hurst exponents are calculated by applying multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA). Overall, the results confirm the existence of multifractality in European stock markets during the COVID-19 outbreak. Furthermore, based on multifractal properties, efficiency varies among these markets. The Spanish stock market remains most efficient while the least efficient is that of Austria. Belgium, Italy and Germany remain somewhere in the middle. This far-reaching outbreak demands a comprehensive response from policy makers to improve market efficiency during such epidemics.
27 June 2021 in International Journal of Emerging Markets
Purpose: The investigation of the fractal nature of financial data has been growing in the literature. The purpose is to investigate the multifractal behavior of frontier markets using multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MFDFA).Design/methodology/approach: This study used daily closing prices of nine frontier stock markets up to 31-Aug-2020. A preliminary analysis reveals that these markets exhibit fat tails and clustering patterns. For a more robust analysis, a combination of Seasonal and Trend Decomposition using Loess (STL) and MFDFA has been employed. The former method is used to decompose daily stock returns, where later detected the long rang dependence in the series.Findings: The results confirm varying degree of multifractality in frontier stock markets, implying that they exhibit long-range dependence. Based on these multifractality levels, Serbian and Romanian stock markets are the ones exhibiting least long-range dependence, while Slovenian and Mauritius stock markets indicating highest dependence in their series. Furthermore, the markets of Kenya, Morocco, Romania and Serbia exhibit mean reversion (anti-persistent) behavior while the remaining frontier markets show persistent behaviors.Practical implications: The information given by the detection of the fractal measure of data can support for investment and policymaking decisions.Originality/value: Frontier markets are of great potential from the perspective of international diversification. However, most of the research focused on other emerging and developed markets, especially in the context of multifractal analysis. This study combines the STL method and a physics-based robust technique, MFDFA to detect the multifractal behavior of frontier stock markets.
1 December 2019 in Research in International Business and Finance
With the advent of greening the global economy and the introduction of green financial assets, this study examines the connectedness and spillover effect of green assets using a QVAR approach focusing on the average connectedness and connectedness under extreme market conditions. The time of the study captures the crucial global incidents of COVID-19 and Russia–Ukraine war to investigate the effect of major incidents on the connectedness of green assets. The results of the QVAR analysis reveal that green assets are moderately connected under normal market conditions; however, their connection is strengthened under extreme market conditions. IOTA and SP Green Bonds are the net receivers of shocks from other assets, and SP Green Bonds are connected to green energy indices and green cryptocurrencies during turbulent markets. Since green cryptocurrencies are closely connected, a lower portion of them should be added to portfolios, whereas SP Green Bonds qualify as a good diversifying agent in a portfolio. The study has significant implications for market participants, investors, and policymakers.
Stock markets are generally perceived as a barometer of the economy and respond to international monetary policies even before economic activities. Many central banks have turned to unconventional policy measures in response to various financial crises such as the global financial crisis of 2007–2009 or the recent crisis caused by COVID-19. To examine the cross-correlation of overall international monetary policies with stock markets, we employ the daily shadow short rate (SSR), which has the advantage of allowing comparison across unconventional and conventional regimes. The analysis is made through a multifractal context using multifractal detrended cross correlation analysis (MF-DXA), considering daily data from 1st January 2000 to 31st March 2022 and country specific SSR and the stock markets of eight developed economies. The main empirical findings are the following: (i) all the country specific pairs of SSR with stock markets have significant multifractal characteristics (ii) the pairs of NZ-SSR/NZX50, US-SSR/DJIA, and CN-SSR/S&P TSX have the highest multifractal patterns while EU-SSR/Euro-area Index has the lowest multifractal patterns (iii) Australian and New Zealand stock markets exhibit anti-persistent cross-correlation with SSR while the remainder have persistent cross-correlation in their multifractality. Lastly, the findings of this study have several important implications for central banks and stock market participants.