The world faces an unprecedented SARS-CoV2 pandemic where many critical factors still remain unknown. The case fatality rates (CFR) reported in the context of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic substantially differ between countries. For SARS-CoV-2 infection with its broad clinical spectrum from asymptomatic to severe disease courses, the infection fatality rate (IFR) is the more reliable parameter to predict the consequences of the pandemic. Here we combined virus RT-PCR testing and assessment for SARS-CoV2 antibodies to determine the total number of individuals with SARS-CoV-2 infections in a given population. Methods: A sero-epidemiological GCP- and GEP-compliant study was performed in a small German town which was exposed to a super-spreading event (carnival festivities) followed by strict social distancing measures causing a transient wave of infections. Questionnaire-based information and biomaterials were collected from a random, household-based study population within a seven-day period, six weeks after the outbreak. The number of present and past infections was determined by integrating results from anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgG analyses in blood, PCR testing for viral RNA in pharyngeal swabs and reported previous positive PCR tests. Results: Of the 919 individuals with evaluable infection status (out of 1,007; 405 households) 15.5% (95% CI: [12.3%; 19.0%]) were infected. This is 5-fold higher than the number of officially reported cases for this community (3.1%). Infection was associated with characteristic symptoms such as loss of smell and taste. 22.2% of all infected individuals were asymptomatic. With the seven SARS-CoV-2-associated reported deaths the estimated IFR was 0.36% [0.29%; 0.45%]. Age and sex were not found to be associated with the infection rate. Participation in carnival festivities increased both the infection rate (21.3% vs. 9.5%, p<0.001) and the number of symptoms in the infected (estimated relative mean increase 1.6, p=0.007). The risk of a person being infected was not found to be associated with the number of study participants in the household this person lived in. The secondary infection risk for study participants living in the same household increased from 15.5% to 43.6%, to 35.5% and to 18.3% for households with two, three or four people respectively (p<0.001). Conclusions: While the number of infections in this high prevalence community is not representative for other parts of the world, the IFR calculated on the basis of the infection rate in this community can be utilized to estimate the percentage of infected based on the number of reported fatalities in other places with similar population characteristics. Whether the specific circumstances of a super-spreading event not only have an impact on the infection rate and number of symptoms but also on the IFR requires further investigation. The unexpectedly low secondary infection risk among persons living in the same household has important implications for measures installed to contain the SARS-CoV-2 virus pandemic.

Time-to-event models are a popular tool to analyse data where the outcome variable is the time to the occurrence of a specific event of interest. Here, we focus on the analysis of time-to-event outcomes that are either intrinsically discrete or grouped versions of continuous event times. In the literature, there exists a variety of regression methods for such data. This tutorial provides an introduction to how these models can be applied using open source statistical software. In particular, we consider semiparametric extensions comprising the use of smooth nonlinear functions and tree-based methods. All methods are illustrated by data on the duration of unemployment of US citizens.

Endocannabinoid (eCB) signaling is markedly decreased in the hippocampus (Hip) of aged mice, and the genetic deletion of the cannabinoid receptor type 1 (CB1) leads to an early onset of cognitive decline and age-related histological changes in the brain. Thus, it is hypothesized that cognitive aging is modulated by eCB signaling through CB1. In the present study, we detailed the changes in the eCB system during the aging process using different complementary techniques in mouse brains of five different age groups, ranging from adolescence to old age. Our findings indicate that the eCB system is most strongly affected in middle-aged mice (between 9 and 12 months of age) in a brain region-specific manner. We show that 2-arachidonoylglycerol (2-AG) was prominently decreased in the Hip and moderately in caudate putamen (CPu), whereas anandamide (AEA) was decreased in both CPu and medial prefrontal cortex along with cingulate cortex (mPFC+Cg), starting from 6 months until 12 months. Consistent with the changes in 2-AG, the 2-AG synthesizing enzyme diacylglycerol lipase α (DAGLα) was also prominently decreased across the sub-regions of the Hip. Interestingly, we found a transient increase in CB1 immunoreactivity across the sub-regions of the Hip at 9 months, a plausible compensation for reduced 2-AG, which ultimately decreased strongly at 12 months. Furthermore, quantitative autoradiography of CB1 revealed that [³H]CP55940 binding markedly increased in the Hip at 9 months. However, unlike the protein levels, CB1 binding density did not drop strongly at 12 months and at old age. Furthermore, [³H]CP55940 binding was significantly increased in the lateral entorhinal cortex (LEnt), starting from the middle age until the old age. Altogether, our findings clearly indicate a middle-age crisis in the eCB system, which could be a potential time window for therapeutic interventions to abrogate the course of cognitive aging.