Land use–land cover (LULC) alteration is primarily associated with land degradation, especially in recent decades, and has resulted in various harmful changes in the landscape. The normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has the prospective capacity to classify the vegetative characteristics of many ecological areas and has proven itself useful as a remote sensing (RS) tool in recording vegetative phenological aspects. Likewise, the normalized difference built-up index (NDBI) is used for quoting built-up areas. The current research objectives include identification of LULC, NDVI, and NDBI changes in Jhelum District, Punjab, Pakistan, during the last 30 years (1990–2020). This study targeted five major LULC classes: water channels, built-up area, barren land, forest, and cultivated land. Satellite imagery classification tools were used to identify LULC changes in Jhelum District, northern Punjab, Pakistan. The perception data about the environmental variations as conveyed by the 500 participants (mainly farmers) were also recorded and analyzed. The results depict that the majority of farmers (54%) believe in the appearance of more drastic changes such as less rainfall, drought, and decreased water availability for irrigation during 2020 compared to 30 years prior. Overall accuracy assessment of imagery classification was 83.2% and 88.8% for 1990, 88.1% and 85.7% for 2000, 86.5% and 86.7% for 2010, and 85.6% and 87.3% for 2020. The NDVI for Jhelum District was the highest in 1990 at +0.86 and the lowest in 2020 at +0.32; similarly, NDBI values were the highest in 2020 at +0.72 and the lowest in 1990 at −0.36. LULC change showed a clear association with temperature, NDBI, and NDVI in the study area. At the same time, variations in the land area of barren soil, vegetation, and built-up from 1990 to 2020 were quite prominent, possibly resulting in temperature increases, reduction in water for irrigation, and changing rainfall patterns. Farmers were found to be quite responsive to such climatic variations, diverting to framing possible mitigation approaches, but they need government assistance. The findings of this study, especially the causes and impacts of rapid LULC variations in the study area, need immediate attention from related government departments and policy makers.

This study focused on the trends of rainfall variability and drought monitoring in the northern region of Pakistan (Gilgit-Baltistan). Climate Hazards Group Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) model data were used for the period of 1981 to 2020. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was applied to assess the dry and wet conditions during the study period. The Mann–Kendall (MK) and Spearman’s rho (SR) trend tests were applied to calculate the trend of drought. A coupled model intercomparison project–global circulation model (CMIP5–GCMs) was used to project the future precipitation in Gilgit-Baltistan (GB) for the 21st century using a multimodel ensemble (MME) technique for representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5. From the results, the extreme drought situations were observed in the 12-month SPI series in 1982 in the Diamir, Ghizer, and Gilgit districts, while severe drought in 1982–1983 was observed in Astore, Ghizer, Gilgit, Hunza-Nagar, and Skardu. Similarly, in 2000–2001 severe drought prevailed in Diamir, Ghanche, and Skardu. The results of MK and SR indicate a significant increasing trend of rainfall in the study area, which is showing the conversion of snowfall to rainfall due to climate warming. The future precipitation projections depicted an increase of 4% for the 21st century as compared with the baseline period in the GB region. The results of the midcentury projections depicted an increase in precipitation of about 13%, while future projections for the latter half of the century recorded a decrease in precipitation (about 9%) for both RCPs, which can cause flooding in midcentury and drought in the latter half of the century. The study area is the host of the major glaciers in Pakistan from where the Indus River receives its major tributaries. The area and volume of these glaciers are decreasing due to warming impacts of climate change. Therefore, this study is useful for proper water resource management to cope up with water scarcity in the future.

Climate change is one of the leading issues affecting river basins due to its direct impacts on the cryosphere and hydrosphere. General circulation models (GCMs) are widely applied tools to assess climate change but the coarse spatial resolution of GCMs limit their direct application for local studies. This study selected five CMIP5 GCMs (CCSM4, HadCM3, GFDL-CM3, MRI-CGCM3 and CanESM2) for performance evaluation ranked by Nash–Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and Kling–Gupta Efficiency (KGE). CCSM4 and HadCM3 large-scale predictors were favored based on ranks (0.71 and 0.68, respectively) for statistical downscaling techniques to downscale the climatic indicators T_max, T_min and precipitation. The performance of two downscaling techniques, Statistical Downscaling Methods (SDSM) and Long Ashton Research Station Weather Generator (LARS-WG), were examined using the Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Root Mean Square Error (RMSE), bias, NSE and KGE with weights (W_i) for the validation period. The results of statistical measures proved SDSM more efficient (0.67) in comparison to the LARS-WG (0.51) for the validation time for the Jhelum River basin. The findings revealed that the SDSM simulation for T_max and T_min are more comparable to the reference data for the validation period except simulation of extreme events by precipitation. The 21st century climatic projections exhibited a significant rise in T_max (2.37–4.66 °C), T_min (2.47–4.52 °C) and precipitation (7.4–11.54%) for RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5, respectively. Overall, the results depicted that winter and pre-monsoon seasons were potentially most affected in terms of warming and precipitation, which has the potential to alter the cryosphere and runoff of the Jhelum River basin.

This study assessed landslide susceptibility in Shahpur valley, situated in the eastern Hindu Kush. Here, landslides are recurrent phenomena that disrupt the natural environment, and almost every year, they cause huge property damages and human losses. These damages are expected to escalate in the study area due to the high rate of deforestation in the region, population growth, agricultural expansion, and infrastructural development on the slopes. Landslide susceptibility was assessed by applying “weight of evidence” (WoE) and “information value” (IV) models. For this, the past landslide areas were identified and mapped on the SPOT5 satellite image and were verified from frequent field visits to remove the ambiguities from the initial inventory. Seven landslide contributing factors including surface geology, fault lines, slope aspect and gradient, land use, and proximity to roads and streams were identified based on indigenous knowledge and studied scientific literature. The relationship of landslide occurrence with contributing factors was calculated using WoE and IV models. The susceptibility maps were generated based on both the WoE and IV models. The results showed that the very high susceptible zone covered an area of 14.49% and 12.84% according to the WoE and IV models, respectively. Finally, the resultant maps were validated using the success and prediction rate curves, seed cell area index (SCAI), and R-index approaches. The success rate curve validated the results at 80.34% for WoE and 80.13% for the IV model. The calculated prediction rate for both WoE and IV was 83.34 and 85.13%, respectively. The SCAI results showed similar performance of both models in landslide susceptibility mapping. The result shows that the R-index value for the very high LS zone was 29.64% in the WoE model, and it was 31.21% for the IV model. Based on the elements at risk, a landslide vulnerability map was prepared that showed high vulnerability to landslide hazards in the lower parts of the valley. Similarly, the hazard and vulnerability maps were combined, and the risk map of the study area was generated. According to the landslide risk map, 5.5% of the study area was under high risk, while 2% of the area was in a very high-risk zone. It was found from the analysis that for assessing landslide susceptibility, both the models are suitable and applicable in the Hindu Kush region.