Even though the growth rates of most tree species in Sweden is expected to increase in the near future as a result of climate change, increased risks of damage by storms and various pests and pathogens, notably root rot and bark beetles, may also occur. Thus, forest management practices such as changes to thinning regimes, reductions in rotation lengths, and switching to other species (native or exotic) may represent adaptive management strategies to increase the resistance and resilience of Swedish forests to climate change. Clearly, thorough analyses examining the effects of anticipated climatic changes on damage levels, and the potentially relieving effects of possible management adaptations are needed before implementing such changes. In this study, damage caused by storms, root rot and bark beetles (single and in various combinations) under selected climate and management scenarios were simulated in Norway spruce (Pice abies L. Karst) stands. The results indicate that reductions in thinning intensity and rotation lengths could improve both volume production and profitability in southern Sweden. In addition, cultivation of rapidly growing species, such as hybrid larch (Larix × marschlinsii Coaz.) and hybrid aspen (Populus tremula L. × P. tremuloides Michx.), could be as profitable as Norway spruce cultivation, or even more profitable. However, slow-growing species, such as Silver birch (Betula pendula Roth), Downy birch (Betula pubescens Ehrh.) and European beech (Fagus sylvatica L.) indicated low economic output in terms of Land Expectation Value.

To reach the Paris Agreement, societies need to increase the global terrestrial carbon sink. There are many climate change mitigation solutions (CCMS) for forests, including increasing bioenergy, bioeconomy, and protection. Bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions use climate‐smart, intensive management to generate high quantities of bioenergy and bioproducts. Protection of (semi‐)natural forests is a major component of “natural climate solution” (NCS) since forests store carbon in standing biomass and soil. Furthermore, protected forests provide more habitat for biodiversity and non‐wood ecosystem services (ES). We investigated the impacts of different CCMS and climate scenarios, jointly or in isolation, on future wood ES, non‐wood ES, and regulating ES for a major wood provider for the international market. Specifically, we projected future ES given by three CCMS scenarios for Sweden 2020–2100. In the long term, fulfilling the increasing wood demand through bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions will decrease ES multifunctionality, but the increased stand age and wood stocks induced by rising greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations will partially offset these negative effects. Adopting bioenergy and bioeconomy solutions will have a greater negative impact on ES supply than adopting NCS. Bioenergy or bioeconomy solutions, as well as increasing GHG emissions, will reduce synergies and increase trade‐offs in ES. NCS, by contrast, increases the supply of multiple ES in synergy, even transforming current ES trade‐offs into future synergies. Moreover, NCS can be considered an adaptation measure to offset negative climate change effects on the future supplies of non‐wood ES. In boreal countries around the world, forestry strategies that integrate NCS more deeply are crucial to ensure a synergistic supply of multiple ES.

The growth rate of most tree species in boreal forests will increase with changing climate. This increase is counterbalanced by an increased risk of damage due to extreme weather events. It is believed that the risk of storm damage will increase over time, especially if forests continue to be managed as they are today. In this study, a new landscape-level hybrid forest growth model 3PG-Heureka was developed and simulations were performed to predict the damage caused by storm events in Kronoberg county, over a period of 91 years (2010–2100) with different alternative management regimes under various climatic scenarios (historic, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The results indicate that damage caused by storm events could drastically reduce the annual volume increment and annual net revenue obtained from forest landscapes if current forest management regimes are used. These problems can be reduced by adopting alternative management strategies involving avoiding thinning, shorter rotation periods and planting alternative tree species. Alternative management strategies could potentially improve annual volume increments and net revenue obtained while reducing storm-felling. Planting Scots pine instead of Norway spruce across the landscape to minimize storm damage is predicted to be less effective than reducing rotation periods. GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT

Resilient ecosystems provide natural insurance value, or resilience value, to the landowner and to society at large. In response to global calls for integrating biodiversity in sector policy and planning, we analysed the specified resilience value by simulating three storm regimes and five management scenarios: Business As Usual/BAU (spruce-dominance), Spruce Monoculture, More Broadleaves, Continuous Cover Forestry (CCF), and No Thinnings. The forest decision support system Heureka RegWise was used to simulate the effects of storms on forest dynamics and Net Present Value (NPV). No Thinnings, CCF and More Broadleaves were more resilient to storms (reduced damage cost) compared to BAU. BAU had the highest NPV only if storms are ignored, a common assumption in today’s forest planning. Given storms, No Thinnings maximises NPV on landscape level. On the 20% most vulnerable plots the NPV was much higher for No Thinnings and slightly higher for CCF and More Broadleaves, compared to BAU. CCF and More Broadleaves also provide nature-based solutions (co-benefits) including public goods. However, forestry adaptations to storms are slow in Sweden, in contrast to e.g. German state forestry which emphasises maximising tree growth and resilience to several stresses and disturbances rather than NPV optimisation.

New mortality models were developed for the purpose of improving long-term growth and yield simulations in Finland, Norway, and Sweden and were based on permanent national forest inventory plots from Sweden and Norway. Mortality was modelled in two steps. The first model predicts the probability of survival, while the second model predicts the proportion of basal area in surviving trees for plots where mortality has occurred. In both models, the logistic function was used. The models incorporate the variation in prediction period length and in plot size. Validation of both models indicated unbiased mortality rates with respect to various stand characteristics such as stand density, average tree diameter, stand age, and the proportion of different tree species, Scots pine ( L.), Norway spruce ( (L.) Karst.), and broadleaves. When testing against an independent dataset of unmanaged spruce-dominated stands in Finland, the models provided unbiased prediction with respect to stand age.Pinus sylvestris Picea abies