The impact of a forest canopy on smoke concentration is assessed by applying a numerical weather prediction model coupled with a Lagrangian particle dispersion model to two low-intensity wildland (prescribed) fires in the New Jersey Pine Barrens. A comparison with observations indicates that the coupled numerical model can reproduce some of the observed variations in surface smoke concentrations and plume heights. Model sensitivity analyses highlight the effect of the forest canopy on simulated meteorological conditions, smoke concentrations, and plume heights. The forest canopy decreases near-surface wind speed, increases buoyancy, and increases turbulent mixing. Sensitivities to the time of day, plant area density profiles, and fire heat fluxes are documented. Analyses of temporal variations in smoke concentrations indicate that the effect of the transition from a daytime to a nocturnal planetary boundary layer is weaker when sensible heat fluxes from the fires are stronger. The results illustrate the challenges in simulating meteorological conditions and smoke concentrations at scales where interactions between the fire, fuels, and atmosphere are critically important. The study demonstrates the potential for predictive tools to be developed and implemented that could help fire and air-quality managers assess local air-quality impacts during low-intensity wildland fires in forested environments.

Lower-tropospheric wind maxima, known as low-level jets (LLJs), play a vital role in weather and climate around the world. In this study, two 10-year (2006–2015) regional climate simulations using current (2011) and future (2100) land-use/land-cover (LULC) patterns over the continental United States (CONUS) are used to assess the sensitivity of LLJ properties, including jet occurrence, maximum speed, and the elevation of the maximum, to changes in LULC. The three simulated LLJ properties exhibit greater sensitivity in summer than in winter. Summertime jets are projected to increase in frequency in the central CONUS, where cropland replaces grassland, and decrease in parts of the Ohio-River Valley and the Southeast, particularly Florida, where urban expansion occurs. Little change is projected for wintertime jet frequency. Larger modifications to jet speed and elevations are projected in parts of the Ohio River Valley, the upper Southeast, and the Intermountain West. While there is some evidence of weaker, more elevated jets with urban expansion, the connection between changes in jet speed and elevation and changes in LULC patterns at a given location is weak. This result suggests that LULC will primarily affect the large-scale atmospheric conditions that contribute to the formation of LLJs, particularly in winter.