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Christopher P. O. Reyer
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany

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Journal article
Published: 13 June 2021 in Global Environmental Change
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Climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability studies tend to confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, this approach ignores cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact and that may severely disrupt societies and livelihoods. We propose a conceptual framework and accompanying nomenclature for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact propagate through a response transmission system. A key to understanding cross-border impacts and responses is a recognition of different types of climate triggers, categories of cross-border impacts, the scales and dynamics of impact transmission, the targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context that also encompasses factors and processes unrelated to climate change. These insights can then provide a basis for identifying relevant causal relationships. We apply the framework to the floods that affected industrial production in Thailand in 2011, and to projected Arctic sea ice decline, and demonstrate that the framework can usefully capture the complex system dynamics of cross-border climate impacts. It also provides a useful mechanism to identify and understand adaptation strategies and their potential consequences in the wider context of resilience planning. The cross-border dimensions of climate impacts could become increasingly important as climate changes intensify. We conclude that our framework will allow for these to be properly accounted for, help to identify new areas of empirical and model-based research and thereby support climate risk management.

ACS Style

Timothy R. Carter; Magnus Benzie; Emanuele Campiglio; Henrik Carlsen; Stefan Fronzek; Mikael Hildén; Christopher P.O. Reyer; Chris West. A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change. Global Environmental Change 2021, 69, 102307 .

AMA Style

Timothy R. Carter, Magnus Benzie, Emanuele Campiglio, Henrik Carlsen, Stefan Fronzek, Mikael Hildén, Christopher P.O. Reyer, Chris West. A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change. Global Environmental Change. 2021; 69 ():102307.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Timothy R. Carter; Magnus Benzie; Emanuele Campiglio; Henrik Carlsen; Stefan Fronzek; Mikael Hildén; Christopher P.O. Reyer; Chris West. 2021. "A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change." Global Environmental Change 69, no. : 102307.

Preprint content
Published: 10 May 2021
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Out of 1150 Mha of forests designated primarily for production purposes in 2020, plantations account for 11 % (131 Mha) of area and fulfilled more than 33 % of the global industrial roundwood demand. Yet, adding additional timber plantations to meet increasing timber demand increases competition for scarce land resources between different land-uses for food, feed, livestock and timber production. Despite their significance in roundwood production, the importance of timber plantations in meeting the long-term timber demand and the implications of plantation expansion for overall land-use dynamics have not been studied in detail so far, in particular not the competition for land between agriculture and forestry in existing land-use models. This paper describes the extension of the modular, open-source land-system Model of Agricultural Production and its Impact on the Environment (MAgPIE) by a detailed representation of forest land, timber production and timber demand dynamics. These extensions allow for understanding the land-use dynamics (including competition for land) and associated land-use change emissions of timber production. We show that the spatial cropland patterns differ when timber production is accounted for, indicating that timber plantations compete with cropland for the same scarce land resources. When plantations are established on cropland, it causes cropland expansion and deforestation elsewhere. As a result of increasing timber demand, we show an increase in plantations area by 140 % until the end of the century (+132 Mha in 1995–2100). We also observe in our model results that the increasing demand for timber increases scarcity of land, and causes intensification through yield increasing technological change by 117 % in croplands by 2100 relative to 1995. Through the inclusion of new forest plantation and natural forest dynamics, our estimates of land-related CO2 emissions match better with observed data in particular the gross land-use change emissions and carbon uptake (via regrowth), reflecting higher deforestation for expansion of managed land and timber production, and higher regrowth in natural forests as well as plantations.

ACS Style

Abhijeet Mishra; Florian Humpenöder; Jan Philipp Dietrich; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky; Brent Sohngen; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Hermann Lotze-Campen; Alexander Popp. Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.2. 2021, 2021, 1 -39.

AMA Style

Abhijeet Mishra, Florian Humpenöder, Jan Philipp Dietrich, Benjamin Leon Bodirsky, Brent Sohngen, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Hermann Lotze-Campen, Alexander Popp. Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.2. . 2021; 2021 ():1-39.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Abhijeet Mishra; Florian Humpenöder; Jan Philipp Dietrich; Benjamin Leon Bodirsky; Brent Sohngen; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Hermann Lotze-Campen; Alexander Popp. 2021. "Estimating global land system impacts of timber plantations using MAgPIE 4.3.2." 2021, no. : 1-39.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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Most studies of climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability confine their attention to impacts and responses within the same geographical region. However, cross-border climate change impacts that occur remotely from the location of their initial impact can severely disrupt societies and livelihoods (Benzie et al., 2019; Carter et al., under review). In this paper we present a conceptual framework and accompanying terminology for describing and analysing such cross-border impacts. The conceptual framework distinguishes an initial impact that is caused by a climate trigger within a specific region. Downstream consequences of that impact propagate through an impact transmission system while adaptation responses to deal with the impact are propagated through a response transmission system.

The framework recognises and classifies differences in the types of climate trigger, categories of cross-border impacts, scales and dynamics of impact transmission, targets and dynamics of responses and the socio-economic and environmental context. We will demonstrate how the framework can be applied using  historical examples of cross-border impacts (e.g. the severe 2011 floods that affected industrial production in Thailand, propagating through the global economy) as well as prospective cases (e.g. multiple cross-border risks and opportunities presented by Arctic sea ice decline).

We argue that the framework provides a simple, but flexible, structure to describe and analyse cross-border climate impacts and their consequences. It offers a foundation for consistent comparisons of different patterns of cross-border impacts in different sectors and geographies. It also aids understanding of adaptation strategies and their potential consequences. In particular, with systematic application of the framework it is possible to highlight gaps in our existing understanding of system dynamics, or gain new insights into particular leverage points within the system. These can be targeted in order to find ways of building resilience to climate change in the region of origin, along the impact transmission system and in the recipient region exposed to the propagated risk.

Acknowledgement

This work is being undertaken as part of the European Commission Horizon 2020-funded project CASCADES (Cascading climate risks: Towards adaptive and resilient European Societies).

References

Benzie M, Carter TR, Carlsen H, Taylor R (2019) Cross-border climate change impacts: implications for the European Union. Regional Environmental Change 19: 763-776, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-018-1436-1.

Carter TR, Benzie M, Campiglio E, Carlsen H, Fronzek S, Hildén M, Reyer CPO, West C (in review) A conceptual framework for cross-border impacts of climate change.

ACS Style

Timothy R. Carter; Magnus Benzie; Emanuele Campiglio; Henrik Carlsen; Stefan Fronzek; Mikael Hildén; Christopher Reyer; Chris West. A framework for analysing cross-border climate change impacts, responses and their propagation. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Timothy R. Carter, Magnus Benzie, Emanuele Campiglio, Henrik Carlsen, Stefan Fronzek, Mikael Hildén, Christopher Reyer, Chris West. A framework for analysing cross-border climate change impacts, responses and their propagation. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Timothy R. Carter; Magnus Benzie; Emanuele Campiglio; Henrik Carlsen; Stefan Fronzek; Mikael Hildén; Christopher Reyer; Chris West. 2021. "A framework for analysing cross-border climate change impacts, responses and their propagation." , no. : 1.

Accepted manuscript
Published: 18 January 2021 in Environmental Research Letters
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Amplified climate warming has led to permafrost degradation and a shortening of the winter season, both impacting cost-effective overland travel across the Arctic. Here we use, for the first time, four state-of-the art Land Surface Models that explicitly consider ground freezing states, forced by a subset of bias-adjusted CMIP5 General Circulation Models to estimate the impact of different global warming scenarios (RCP2.6, 6.0, 8.5) on two modes of winter travel: Overland Travel Days (OTDs) and Ice Road Construction Days (IRCDs). We show that OTDs decrease by on average -13% in the near future (2021-2050) and between -15% (RCP2.6) and -40% (RCP8.5) in the far future (2070-2099) compared to the reference period (1971-2000) when 173 days year-1 are simulated across the Pan-Arctic. Regionally, we identified Eastern Siberia (Sakha (Yakutia), Khabarovsk Krai, Magadan Oblast) to be most resilient to climate change, while Alaska (USA), the Northwestern Russian regions (Yamalo, Arkhangelsk Oblast, Nenets, Komi, Khanty-Mansiy), Northern Europe and Chukotka are highly vulnerable. The change in OTDs is most pronounced during the shoulder season, particularly in autumn. The IRCDs reduce on average twice as much as the OTDs under all climate scenarios resulting in shorter operational duration. The results of the low-end global warming scenario (RCP2.6) emphasize that stringent climate mitigation policies have the potential to reduce the impact of climate change on winter mobility in the second half of the 21st century. Nevertheless, even under RCP2.6, our results suggest substantially reduced winter overland travel implying a severe threat to livelihoods of remote communities and increasing costs for resource exploration and transport across the Arctic.

ACS Style

Anne Gädeke; Moritz Langer; Julia Boike; Eleanor J. Burke; Jinfeng Chang; Melissa Head; Christopher P.O. Reyer; Sibyll Schaphoff; Wim Thiery; Kirsten Thonicke. Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 024049 .

AMA Style

Anne Gädeke, Moritz Langer, Julia Boike, Eleanor J. Burke, Jinfeng Chang, Melissa Head, Christopher P.O. Reyer, Sibyll Schaphoff, Wim Thiery, Kirsten Thonicke. Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (2):024049.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Anne Gädeke; Moritz Langer; Julia Boike; Eleanor J. Burke; Jinfeng Chang; Melissa Head; Christopher P.O. Reyer; Sibyll Schaphoff; Wim Thiery; Kirsten Thonicke. 2021. "Climate change reduces winter overland travel across the Pan-Arctic even under low-end global warming scenarios." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 2: 024049.

Journal article
Published: 26 November 2020 in Earth's Future
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The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than five‐fold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

ACS Style

Stefan Lange; Jan Volkholz; Tobias Geiger; Fang Zhao; Iliusi Vega; Ted Veldkamp; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Lila Warszawski; Veronika Huber; Jonas Jägermeyr; Jacob Schewe; David N. Bresch; Matthias Büchner; Jinfeng Chang; Philippe Ciais; Marie Dury; Kerry Emanuel; Christian Folberth; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Naota Hanasaki; Alexandra‐Jane Henrot; Thomas Hickler; Yasushi Honda; Akihiko Ito; Nikolay Khabarov; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Wenfeng Liu; Christoph Müller; Kazuya Nishina; Sebastian Ostberg; Hannes Müller Schmied; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Tobias Stacke; Jörg Steinkamp; Wim Thiery; Yoshihide Wada; Sven Willner; Hong Yang; Minoru Yoshikawa; Chao Yue; Katja Frieler. Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales. Earth's Future 2020, 8, 1 .

AMA Style

Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Tobias Geiger, Fang Zhao, Iliusi Vega, Ted Veldkamp, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Lila Warszawski, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jacob Schewe, David N. Bresch, Matthias Büchner, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Kerry Emanuel, Christian Folberth, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Alexandra‐Jane Henrot, Thomas Hickler, Yasushi Honda, Akihiko Ito, Nikolay Khabarov, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Wenfeng Liu, Christoph Müller, Kazuya Nishina, Sebastian Ostberg, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Tobias Stacke, Jörg Steinkamp, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Sven Willner, Hong Yang, Minoru Yoshikawa, Chao Yue, Katja Frieler. Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales. Earth's Future. 2020; 8 (12):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Stefan Lange; Jan Volkholz; Tobias Geiger; Fang Zhao; Iliusi Vega; Ted Veldkamp; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Lila Warszawski; Veronika Huber; Jonas Jägermeyr; Jacob Schewe; David N. Bresch; Matthias Büchner; Jinfeng Chang; Philippe Ciais; Marie Dury; Kerry Emanuel; Christian Folberth; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Naota Hanasaki; Alexandra‐Jane Henrot; Thomas Hickler; Yasushi Honda; Akihiko Ito; Nikolay Khabarov; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Wenfeng Liu; Christoph Müller; Kazuya Nishina; Sebastian Ostberg; Hannes Müller Schmied; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Tobias Stacke; Jörg Steinkamp; Wim Thiery; Yoshihide Wada; Sven Willner; Hong Yang; Minoru Yoshikawa; Chao Yue; Katja Frieler. 2020. "Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales." Earth's Future 8, no. 12: 1.

Model evaluation paper
Published: 05 November 2020 in Geoscientific Model Development
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The process-based model 4C (FORESEE) has been developed over the past 20 years to study climate impacts on forests and is now freely available as an open-source tool. The objective of this paper is to provide a comprehensive description of this 4C version (v2.2) for scientific users of the model and to present an evaluation of 4C at four different forest sites across Europe. The evaluation focuses on forest growth as well as carbon (net ecosystem exchange, gross primary production), water (actual evapotranspiration, soil water content), and heat fluxes (soil temperature) using data from the PROFOUND database. We applied different evaluation metrics and compared the daily, monthly, and annual variability of observed and simulated values. The ability to reproduce forest growth (stem diameter and biomass) differs from site to site and is best for a pine stand in Germany (Peitz, model efficiency ME=0.98). 4C is able to reproduce soil temperature at different depths in Sorø and Hyytiälä with good accuracy (for all soil depths ME > 0.8). The dynamics in simulating carbon and water fluxes are well captured on daily and monthly timescales (0.51 < ME < 0.983) but less so on an annual timescale (ME < 0). This model–data mismatch is possibly due to the accumulation of errors because of processes that are missing or represented in a very general way in 4C but not with enough specific detail to cover strong, site-specific dependencies such as ground vegetation growth. These processes need to be further elaborated to improve the projections of climate change on forests. We conclude that, despite shortcomings, 4C is widely applicable, reliable, and therefore ready to be released to the scientific community to use and further develop the model.

ACS Style

Petra Lasch-Born; Felicitas Suckow; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Martin Gutsch; Chris Kollas; Franz-Werner Badeck; Harald K. M. Bugmann; Rüdiger Grote; Cornelia Fürstenau; Marcus Lindner; Jörg Schaber. Description and evaluation of the process-based forest model 4C v2.2 at four European forest sites. Geoscientific Model Development 2020, 13, 5311 -5343.

AMA Style

Petra Lasch-Born, Felicitas Suckow, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Martin Gutsch, Chris Kollas, Franz-Werner Badeck, Harald K. M. Bugmann, Rüdiger Grote, Cornelia Fürstenau, Marcus Lindner, Jörg Schaber. Description and evaluation of the process-based forest model 4C v2.2 at four European forest sites. Geoscientific Model Development. 2020; 13 (11):5311-5343.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Petra Lasch-Born; Felicitas Suckow; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Martin Gutsch; Chris Kollas; Franz-Werner Badeck; Harald K. M. Bugmann; Rüdiger Grote; Cornelia Fürstenau; Marcus Lindner; Jörg Schaber. 2020. "Description and evaluation of the process-based forest model 4C v2.2 at four European forest sites." Geoscientific Model Development 13, no. 11: 5311-5343.

Journal article
Published: 23 October 2020 in Global Biogeochemical Cycles
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Wenfang Xu; Jinfeng Chang; Philippe Ciais; Bertrand Guenet; Nicolas Viovy; Akihiko Ito; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Hanqin Tian; Hao Shi; Katja Frieler; Matthew Forrest; Sebastian Ostberg; Sibyll Schaphoff; Thomas Hickler. Reducing Uncertainties of Future Global Soil Carbon Responses to Climate and Land Use Change With Emergent Constraints. Global Biogeochemical Cycles 2020, 34, 1 .

AMA Style

Wenfang Xu, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Bertrand Guenet, Nicolas Viovy, Akihiko Ito, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Hanqin Tian, Hao Shi, Katja Frieler, Matthew Forrest, Sebastian Ostberg, Sibyll Schaphoff, Thomas Hickler. Reducing Uncertainties of Future Global Soil Carbon Responses to Climate and Land Use Change With Emergent Constraints. Global Biogeochemical Cycles. 2020; 34 (10):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wenfang Xu; Jinfeng Chang; Philippe Ciais; Bertrand Guenet; Nicolas Viovy; Akihiko Ito; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Hanqin Tian; Hao Shi; Katja Frieler; Matthew Forrest; Sebastian Ostberg; Sibyll Schaphoff; Thomas Hickler. 2020. "Reducing Uncertainties of Future Global Soil Carbon Responses to Climate and Land Use Change With Emergent Constraints." Global Biogeochemical Cycles 34, no. 10: 1.

Data description paper
Published: 12 June 2020 in Earth System Science Data
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Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data on European forests to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage of this database is its wide coverage of multiple data sources at different hierarchical and temporal scales, together with environmental driving data as well as the latest climate scenarios. Specifically, the PROFOUND DB provides general site descriptions, soil, climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition, tree and forest stand level, and remote sensing data for nine contrasting forest stands distributed across Europe. Moreover, for a subset of five sites, time series of carbon fluxes, atmospheric heat conduction and soil water are also available. The climate and nitrogen deposition data contain several datasets for the historic period and a wide range of future climate change scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). We also provide pre-industrial climate simulations that allow for model runs aimed at disentangling the contribution of climate change to observed forest productivity changes. The PROFOUND DB is available freely as a “SQLite” relational database or “ASCII” flat file version (at https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2020.006/; Reyer et al., 2020). The data policies of the individual contributing datasets are provided in the metadata of each data file. The PROFOUND DB can also be accessed via the ProfoundData R package (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ProfoundData; Silveyra Gonzalez et al., 2020), which provides basic functions to explore, plot and extract the data for model set-up, calibration and evaluation.

ACS Style

Christopher P. O. Reyer; Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez; Klara Dolos; Florian Hartig; Ylva Hauf; Matthias Noack; Petra Lasch-Born; Thomas Rötzer; Hans Pretzsch; Henning Meesenburg; Stefan Fleck; Markus Wagner; Andreas Bolte; Tanja G. M. Sanders; Pasi Kolari; Annikki Mäkelä; Timo Vesala; Ivan Mammarella; Jukka Pumpanen; Alessio Collalti; Carlo Trotta; Giorgio Matteucci; Ettore D'Andrea; Lenka Foltýnová; Jan Krejza; Andreas Ibrom; Kim Pilegaard; Denis Loustau; Jean-Marc Bonnefond; Paul Berbigier; Delphine Picart; Sébastien Lafont; Michael Dietze; David Cameron; Massimo Vieno; Hanqin Tian; Alicia Palacios-Orueta; Victor Cicuendez; Laura Recuero; Klaus Wiese; Matthias Büchner; Stefan Lange; Jan Volkholz; Hyungjun Kim; Joanna A. Horemans; Friedrich Bohn; Jörg Steinkamp; Alexander Chikalanov; Graham P. Weedon; Justin Sheffield; Flurin Babst; Iliusi Vega del Valle; Felicitas Suckow; Simon Martel; Mats Mahnken; Martin Gutsch; Katja Frieler. The PROFOUND Database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on European forests. Earth System Science Data 2020, 12, 1295 -1320.

AMA Style

Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez, Klara Dolos, Florian Hartig, Ylva Hauf, Matthias Noack, Petra Lasch-Born, Thomas Rötzer, Hans Pretzsch, Henning Meesenburg, Stefan Fleck, Markus Wagner, Andreas Bolte, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Pasi Kolari, Annikki Mäkelä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Jukka Pumpanen, Alessio Collalti, Carlo Trotta, Giorgio Matteucci, Ettore D'Andrea, Lenka Foltýnová, Jan Krejza, Andreas Ibrom, Kim Pilegaard, Denis Loustau, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Paul Berbigier, Delphine Picart, Sébastien Lafont, Michael Dietze, David Cameron, Massimo Vieno, Hanqin Tian, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Victor Cicuendez, Laura Recuero, Klaus Wiese, Matthias Büchner, Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Hyungjun Kim, Joanna A. Horemans, Friedrich Bohn, Jörg Steinkamp, Alexander Chikalanov, Graham P. Weedon, Justin Sheffield, Flurin Babst, Iliusi Vega del Valle, Felicitas Suckow, Simon Martel, Mats Mahnken, Martin Gutsch, Katja Frieler. The PROFOUND Database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on European forests. Earth System Science Data. 2020; 12 (2):1295-1320.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Christopher P. O. Reyer; Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez; Klara Dolos; Florian Hartig; Ylva Hauf; Matthias Noack; Petra Lasch-Born; Thomas Rötzer; Hans Pretzsch; Henning Meesenburg; Stefan Fleck; Markus Wagner; Andreas Bolte; Tanja G. M. Sanders; Pasi Kolari; Annikki Mäkelä; Timo Vesala; Ivan Mammarella; Jukka Pumpanen; Alessio Collalti; Carlo Trotta; Giorgio Matteucci; Ettore D'Andrea; Lenka Foltýnová; Jan Krejza; Andreas Ibrom; Kim Pilegaard; Denis Loustau; Jean-Marc Bonnefond; Paul Berbigier; Delphine Picart; Sébastien Lafont; Michael Dietze; David Cameron; Massimo Vieno; Hanqin Tian; Alicia Palacios-Orueta; Victor Cicuendez; Laura Recuero; Klaus Wiese; Matthias Büchner; Stefan Lange; Jan Volkholz; Hyungjun Kim; Joanna A. Horemans; Friedrich Bohn; Jörg Steinkamp; Alexander Chikalanov; Graham P. Weedon; Justin Sheffield; Flurin Babst; Iliusi Vega del Valle; Felicitas Suckow; Simon Martel; Mats Mahnken; Martin Gutsch; Katja Frieler. 2020. "The PROFOUND Database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on European forests." Earth System Science Data 12, no. 2: 1295-1320.

Preprint content
Published: 07 May 2020
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Christopher Reyer. How to upload the revised text? 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Christopher Reyer. How to upload the revised text? . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Christopher Reyer. 2020. "How to upload the revised text?" , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 07 May 2020
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Christopher Reyer. Reply to Chief-Editor. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Christopher Reyer. Reply to Chief-Editor. . 2020; ():1.

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Christopher Reyer. 2020. "Reply to Chief-Editor." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 21 April 2020
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Christopher Reyer. Author response. 2020, 1 .

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Christopher Reyer. Author response. . 2020; ():1.

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Christopher Reyer. 2020. "Author response." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 08 April 2020 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences
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Carbon fluxes at the land‐atmosphere interface are strongly influenced by weather and climate conditions. Yet, what is usually known as “climate extremes” does not always translate into very high or low carbon fluxes or so‐called “carbon extremes”. To reveal the patterns of how climate extremes influence terrestrial carbon fluxes, we analyzed the inter‐annual variations in ecosystem carbon fluxes simulated by the Terrestrial Biosphere Model (TBMs) in the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project. At the global level, TBMs simulated reduced ecosystem Net Primary Productivity (NPP) (18.5±9.3 g C m‐2 yr‐1), but enhanced heterotrophic respiration (Rh) (7±4.6 g C m‐2 yr‐1) during extremely hot events. TBMs also simulated reduced NPP (60.9±24.4 g C m‐2 yr‐1) and reduced Rh (16.5±11.4 g C m‐2 yr‐1) during extreme dry events. Influences of precipitation extremes on terrestrial carbon uptake were larger in the arid/semi‐arid zones than other regions. During hot extremes, ecosystems in the low latitudes experienced a larger reduction in carbon uptake. However, a large fraction of carbon extremes did not occur in concert with either temperature or precipitation extremes. Rather these carbon extremes are likely to be caused by the interactive effects of the concurrent temperature and precipitation anomalies. The interactive effects showed considerable spatial variations with the largest effects on NPP in South America and Africa. Additionally, TBMs simulated a stronger sensitivity of ecosystem productivity to precipitation than satellite estimates. This study provides new insights into the complex ecosystem responses to climate extremes, especially emergent properties of carbon dynamics resulting from compound climate extremes.

ACS Style

Shufen Pan; Jia Yang; Hanqin Tian; Hao Shi; Jinfeng Chang; Philippe Ciais; Louis Francois; Katja Frieler; Bojie Fu; Thomas Hickler; Akihiko Ito; Kazuya Nishina; Sebastian Ostberg; Christopher P.O. Reyer; Sibyll Schaphoff; Jörg Steinkamp; Fang Zhao. Climate Extreme Versus Carbon Extreme: Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes to Temperature and Precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 2020, 125, 1 .

AMA Style

Shufen Pan, Jia Yang, Hanqin Tian, Hao Shi, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Louis Francois, Katja Frieler, Bojie Fu, Thomas Hickler, Akihiko Ito, Kazuya Nishina, Sebastian Ostberg, Christopher P.O. Reyer, Sibyll Schaphoff, Jörg Steinkamp, Fang Zhao. Climate Extreme Versus Carbon Extreme: Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes to Temperature and Precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences. 2020; 125 (4):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Shufen Pan; Jia Yang; Hanqin Tian; Hao Shi; Jinfeng Chang; Philippe Ciais; Louis Francois; Katja Frieler; Bojie Fu; Thomas Hickler; Akihiko Ito; Kazuya Nishina; Sebastian Ostberg; Christopher P.O. Reyer; Sibyll Schaphoff; Jörg Steinkamp; Fang Zhao. 2020. "Climate Extreme Versus Carbon Extreme: Responses of Terrestrial Carbon Fluxes to Temperature and Precipitation." Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences 125, no. 4: 1.

Journal article
Published: 27 March 2020 in Sustainability
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The role of values in climate-related decision-making is a prominent theme of climate communication research. The present study examines whether forest professionals are more driven by values than scientists are, and if this results in value polarization. A questionnaire was designed to elicit and assess the values assigned to expected effects of climate change by forest professionals and scientists working on forests and climate change in Europe. The countries involved covered a north-to-south and west-to-east gradient across Europe, representing a wide range of bio-climatic conditions and a mix of economic–social–political structures. We show that European forest professionals and scientists do not exhibit polarized expectations about the values of specific impacts of climate change on forests in their countries. In fact, few differences between forest professionals and scientists were found. However, there are interesting differences in the expected values of forest professionals with regard to climate change impacts across European countries. In Northern European countries, the aggregated values of the expected effects are more neutral than they are in Southern Europe, where they are more negative. Expectations about impacts on timber production, economic returns, and regulatory ecosystem services are mostly negative, while expectations about biodiversity and energy production are mostly positive.

ACS Style

Johannes Persson; Kristina Blennow; Luísa Gonçalves; Alexander Borys; Ioan Dutcă; Jari Hynynen; Emilia Janeczko; Mariyana Lyubenova; Simon Martel; Jan Merganic; Katarína Merganičová; Mikko Peltoniemi; Michal Petr; Fernando H. Reboredo; Giorgio Vacchiano; Christopher P.O. Reyer. No polarization–Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists. Sustainability 2020, 12, 2659 .

AMA Style

Johannes Persson, Kristina Blennow, Luísa Gonçalves, Alexander Borys, Ioan Dutcă, Jari Hynynen, Emilia Janeczko, Mariyana Lyubenova, Simon Martel, Jan Merganic, Katarína Merganičová, Mikko Peltoniemi, Michal Petr, Fernando H. Reboredo, Giorgio Vacchiano, Christopher P.O. Reyer. No polarization–Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists. Sustainability. 2020; 12 (7):2659.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Johannes Persson; Kristina Blennow; Luísa Gonçalves; Alexander Borys; Ioan Dutcă; Jari Hynynen; Emilia Janeczko; Mariyana Lyubenova; Simon Martel; Jan Merganic; Katarína Merganičová; Mikko Peltoniemi; Michal Petr; Fernando H. Reboredo; Giorgio Vacchiano; Christopher P.O. Reyer. 2020. "No polarization–Expected Values of Climate Change Impacts among European Forest Professionals and Scientists." Sustainability 12, no. 7: 2659.

Perspective
Published: 27 January 2020 in Nature Sustainability
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The anticipated growth and urbanization of the global population over the next several decades will create a vast demand for the construction of new housing, commercial buildings and accompanying infrastructure. The production of cement, steel and other building materials associated with this wave of construction will become a major source of greenhouse gas emissions. Might it be possible to transform this potential threat to the global climate system into a powerful means to mitigate climate change? To answer this provocative question, we explore the potential of mid-rise urban buildings designed with engineered timber to provide long-term storage of carbon and to avoid the carbon-intensive production of mineral-based construction materials.

ACS Style

Galina Churkina; Alan Organschi; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Andrew Ruff; Kira Vinke; Zhu Liu; Barbara K. Reck; T. E. Graedel; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Buildings as a global carbon sink. Nature Sustainability 2020, 3, 269 -276.

AMA Style

Galina Churkina, Alan Organschi, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Andrew Ruff, Kira Vinke, Zhu Liu, Barbara K. Reck, T. E. Graedel, Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. Buildings as a global carbon sink. Nature Sustainability. 2020; 3 (4):269-276.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Galina Churkina; Alan Organschi; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Andrew Ruff; Kira Vinke; Zhu Liu; Barbara K. Reck; T. E. Graedel; Hans Joachim Schellnhuber. 2020. "Buildings as a global carbon sink." Nature Sustainability 3, no. 4: 269-276.

Journal article
Published: 23 December 2019 in Ecological Modelling
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Climate change is expected to cause major changes in forest ecosystems during the 21st century and beyond. To assess forest impacts from climate change, the existing empirical information must be structured, harmonised and assimilated into a form suitable to develop and test state-of-the-art forest and ecosystem models. The combination of empirical data collected at large spatial and long temporal scales with suitable modelling approaches is key to understand forest dynamics under climate change. To facilitate data and model integration, we identified major climate change impacts observed on European forest functioning and summarised the data available for monitoring and predicting such impacts. Our analysis of c. 120 forest-related databases (including information from remote sensing, vegetation inventories, dendroecology, palaeoecology, eddy-flux sites, common garden experiments and genetic techniques) and 50 databases of environmental drivers highlights a substantial degree of data availability and accessibility. However, some critical variables relevant to predicting European forest responses to climate change are only available at relatively short time frames (up to 10-20 years), including intra-specific trait variability, defoliation patterns, tree mortality and recruitment. Moreover, we identified data gaps or lack of data integration particularly in variables related to local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity, dispersal capabilities and physiological responses. Overall, we conclude that forest data availability across Europe is improving, but further efforts are needed to integrate, harmonise and interpret this data (i.e. making data useable for non-experts). Continuation of existing monitoring and networks schemes together with the establishments of new networks to address data gaps is crucial to rigorously predict climate change impacts on European forests.

ACS Style

Paloma Ruiz-Benito; Giorgio Vacchiano; Emily R. Lines; Christopher P.O. Reyer; Sophia Ratcliffe; Xavier Morin; Florian Hartig; Annikki Mäkelä; Rasoul Yousefpour; Jimena E. Chaves; Alicia Palacios-Orueta; Marta Benito-Garzón; Cesar Morales-Molino; J. Julio Camarero; Alistair S. Jump; Jens Kattge; Aleksi Lehtonen; Andreas Ibrom; Harry J.F. Owen; Miguel A. Zavala. Available and missing data to model impact of climate change on European forests. Ecological Modelling 2019, 416, 108870 .

AMA Style

Paloma Ruiz-Benito, Giorgio Vacchiano, Emily R. Lines, Christopher P.O. Reyer, Sophia Ratcliffe, Xavier Morin, Florian Hartig, Annikki Mäkelä, Rasoul Yousefpour, Jimena E. Chaves, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Marta Benito-Garzón, Cesar Morales-Molino, J. Julio Camarero, Alistair S. Jump, Jens Kattge, Aleksi Lehtonen, Andreas Ibrom, Harry J.F. Owen, Miguel A. Zavala. Available and missing data to model impact of climate change on European forests. Ecological Modelling. 2019; 416 ():108870.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Paloma Ruiz-Benito; Giorgio Vacchiano; Emily R. Lines; Christopher P.O. Reyer; Sophia Ratcliffe; Xavier Morin; Florian Hartig; Annikki Mäkelä; Rasoul Yousefpour; Jimena E. Chaves; Alicia Palacios-Orueta; Marta Benito-Garzón; Cesar Morales-Molino; J. Julio Camarero; Alistair S. Jump; Jens Kattge; Aleksi Lehtonen; Andreas Ibrom; Harry J.F. Owen; Miguel A. Zavala. 2019. "Available and missing data to model impact of climate change on European forests." Ecological Modelling 416, no. : 108870.

Preprint content
Published: 29 November 2019
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Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage of this database is its wide coverage of multiple data sources at different hierarchical and temporal scales, together with environmental driving data as well as the latest climate scenarios. Specifically, the PROFOUND DB provides general site descriptions, soil, climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition, tree and forest stand-level, as well as remote sensing data for nine contrasting forest stands distributed across Europe. Moreover, for a subset of five sites, time series of carbon fluxes, atmospheric heat conduction, and soil water are also available. The climate and nitrogen deposition data contain several datasets for the historic period and a wide range of future climate change scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). We also provide pre-industrial climate simulations that allow for model runs aimed at disentangling the contribution of climate change to observed forest productivity changes. The PROFOUND DB is available freely as a SQLite relational database or ASCII flat file version (at https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2019.008). The data policies of the individual, contributing datasets are provided in the metadata of each data file. The PROFOUND DB can also be accessed via the ProfoundData R-package (https://github.com/COST-FP1304-PROFOUND/ProfoundData), which provides basic functions to explore, plot, and extract the data for model set-up, calibration and evaluation.

ACS Style

Christopher P. O. Reyer; Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez; Klara Dolos; Florian Hartig; Ylva Hauf; Matthias Noack; Petra Lasch-Born; Thomas Rötzer; Hans Pretzsch; Henning Mesenburg; Stefan Fleck; Markus Wagner; Andreas Bolte; Tanja G. M. Sanders; Pasi Kolari; Annikki Mäkelä; Timo Vesala; Ivan Mammarella; Jukka Pumpanen; Alessio Collalti; Carlo Trotta; Giorgio Matteucci; Ettore D'andrea; Lenka Foltýnová; Jan Krejza; Andreas Ibrom; Kim Pilegaard; Denis Loustau; Jean-Marc Bonnefond; Paul Berbigier; Delphine Picart; Sébastien Lafont; Michael Dietze; David Cameron; Massimo Vieno; Hanqin Tian; Alicia Palacios-Orueta; Victor Cicuendez; Laura Recuero; Klaus Wiese; Matthias Büchner; Stefan Lange; Jan Volkholz; Hyungjun Kim; Graham P. Weedon; Justin Sheffield; Iliusi Vega Del Valle; Felicitas Suckow; Joanna A. Horemans; Simon Martel; Friedrich Bohn; Jörg Steinkamp; Alexander Chikalanov; Mats Mahnken; Martin Gutsch; Katja Frieler. The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests. 2019, 2019, 1 -47.

AMA Style

Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez, Klara Dolos, Florian Hartig, Ylva Hauf, Matthias Noack, Petra Lasch-Born, Thomas Rötzer, Hans Pretzsch, Henning Mesenburg, Stefan Fleck, Markus Wagner, Andreas Bolte, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Pasi Kolari, Annikki Mäkelä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Jukka Pumpanen, Alessio Collalti, Carlo Trotta, Giorgio Matteucci, Ettore D'andrea, Lenka Foltýnová, Jan Krejza, Andreas Ibrom, Kim Pilegaard, Denis Loustau, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Paul Berbigier, Delphine Picart, Sébastien Lafont, Michael Dietze, David Cameron, Massimo Vieno, Hanqin Tian, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Victor Cicuendez, Laura Recuero, Klaus Wiese, Matthias Büchner, Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Hyungjun Kim, Graham P. Weedon, Justin Sheffield, Iliusi Vega Del Valle, Felicitas Suckow, Joanna A. Horemans, Simon Martel, Friedrich Bohn, Jörg Steinkamp, Alexander Chikalanov, Mats Mahnken, Martin Gutsch, Katja Frieler. The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests. . 2019; 2019 ():1-47.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Christopher P. O. Reyer; Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez; Klara Dolos; Florian Hartig; Ylva Hauf; Matthias Noack; Petra Lasch-Born; Thomas Rötzer; Hans Pretzsch; Henning Mesenburg; Stefan Fleck; Markus Wagner; Andreas Bolte; Tanja G. M. Sanders; Pasi Kolari; Annikki Mäkelä; Timo Vesala; Ivan Mammarella; Jukka Pumpanen; Alessio Collalti; Carlo Trotta; Giorgio Matteucci; Ettore D'andrea; Lenka Foltýnová; Jan Krejza; Andreas Ibrom; Kim Pilegaard; Denis Loustau; Jean-Marc Bonnefond; Paul Berbigier; Delphine Picart; Sébastien Lafont; Michael Dietze; David Cameron; Massimo Vieno; Hanqin Tian; Alicia Palacios-Orueta; Victor Cicuendez; Laura Recuero; Klaus Wiese; Matthias Büchner; Stefan Lange; Jan Volkholz; Hyungjun Kim; Graham P. Weedon; Justin Sheffield; Iliusi Vega Del Valle; Felicitas Suckow; Joanna A. Horemans; Simon Martel; Friedrich Bohn; Jörg Steinkamp; Alexander Chikalanov; Mats Mahnken; Martin Gutsch; Katja Frieler. 2019. "The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests." 2019, no. : 1-47.

Preprint content
Published: 29 November 2019
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ACS Style

Christopher P. O. Reyer; Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez; Klara Dolos; Florian Hartig; Ylva Hauf; Matthias Noack; Petra Lasch-Born; Thomas Rötzer; Hans Pretzsch; Henning Mesenburg; Stefan Fleck; Markus Wagner; Andreas Bolte; Tanja G. M. Sanders; Pasi Kolari; Annikki Mäkelä; Timo Vesala; Ivan Mammarella; Jukka Pumpanen; Alessio Collalti; Carlo Trotta; Giorgio Matteucci; Ettore D'andrea; Lenka Foltýnová; Jan Krejza; Andreas Ibrom; Kim Pilegaard; Denis Loustau; Jean-Marc Bonnefond; Paul Berbigier; Delphine Picart; Sébastien Lafont; Michael Dietze; David Cameron; Massimo Vieno; Hanqin Tian; Alicia Palacios-Orueta; Victor Cicuendez; Laura Recuero; Klaus Wiese; Matthias Büchner; Stefan Lange; Jan Volkholz; Hyungjun Kim; Graham P. Weedon; Justin Sheffield; Iliusi Vega Del Valle; Felicitas Suckow; Joanna A. Horemans; Simon Martel; Friedrich Bohn; Jörg Steinkamp; Alexander Chikalanov; Mats Mahnken; Martin Gutsch; Katja Frieler. Supplementary material to "The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests". 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez, Klara Dolos, Florian Hartig, Ylva Hauf, Matthias Noack, Petra Lasch-Born, Thomas Rötzer, Hans Pretzsch, Henning Mesenburg, Stefan Fleck, Markus Wagner, Andreas Bolte, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Pasi Kolari, Annikki Mäkelä, Timo Vesala, Ivan Mammarella, Jukka Pumpanen, Alessio Collalti, Carlo Trotta, Giorgio Matteucci, Ettore D'andrea, Lenka Foltýnová, Jan Krejza, Andreas Ibrom, Kim Pilegaard, Denis Loustau, Jean-Marc Bonnefond, Paul Berbigier, Delphine Picart, Sébastien Lafont, Michael Dietze, David Cameron, Massimo Vieno, Hanqin Tian, Alicia Palacios-Orueta, Victor Cicuendez, Laura Recuero, Klaus Wiese, Matthias Büchner, Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Hyungjun Kim, Graham P. Weedon, Justin Sheffield, Iliusi Vega Del Valle, Felicitas Suckow, Joanna A. Horemans, Simon Martel, Friedrich Bohn, Jörg Steinkamp, Alexander Chikalanov, Mats Mahnken, Martin Gutsch, Katja Frieler. Supplementary material to "The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests". . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Christopher P. O. Reyer; Ramiro Silveyra Gonzalez; Klara Dolos; Florian Hartig; Ylva Hauf; Matthias Noack; Petra Lasch-Born; Thomas Rötzer; Hans Pretzsch; Henning Mesenburg; Stefan Fleck; Markus Wagner; Andreas Bolte; Tanja G. M. Sanders; Pasi Kolari; Annikki Mäkelä; Timo Vesala; Ivan Mammarella; Jukka Pumpanen; Alessio Collalti; Carlo Trotta; Giorgio Matteucci; Ettore D'andrea; Lenka Foltýnová; Jan Krejza; Andreas Ibrom; Kim Pilegaard; Denis Loustau; Jean-Marc Bonnefond; Paul Berbigier; Delphine Picart; Sébastien Lafont; Michael Dietze; David Cameron; Massimo Vieno; Hanqin Tian; Alicia Palacios-Orueta; Victor Cicuendez; Laura Recuero; Klaus Wiese; Matthias Büchner; Stefan Lange; Jan Volkholz; Hyungjun Kim; Graham P. Weedon; Justin Sheffield; Iliusi Vega Del Valle; Felicitas Suckow; Joanna A. Horemans; Simon Martel; Friedrich Bohn; Jörg Steinkamp; Alexander Chikalanov; Mats Mahnken; Martin Gutsch; Katja Frieler. 2019. "Supplementary material to "The PROFOUND database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on forests"." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 21 November 2019 in Tree Physiology
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Carbon allocation plays a key role in ecosystem dynamics and plant adaptation to changing environmental conditions. Hence, proper description of this process in vegetation models is crucial for the simulations of the impact of climate change on carbon cycling in forests. Here we review how carbon allocation modelling is currently implemented in 31 contrasting models to identify the main gaps compared with our theoretical and empirical understanding of carbon allocation. A hybrid approach based on combining several principles and/or types of carbon allocation modelling prevailed in the examined models, while physiologically more sophisticated approaches were used less often than empirical ones. The analysis revealed that, although the number of carbon allocation studies over the past 10 years has substantially increased, some background processes are still insufficiently understood and some issues in models are frequently poorly represented, oversimplified or even omitted. Hence, current challenges for carbon allocation modelling in forest ecosystems are (i) to overcome remaining limits in process understanding, particularly regarding the impact of disturbances on carbon allocation, accumulation and utilization of nonstructural carbohydrates, and carbon use by symbionts, and (ii) to implement existing knowledge of carbon allocation into defence, regeneration and improved resource uptake in order to better account for changing environmental conditions.

ACS Style

Katarína Merganičová; Ján Merganič; Aleksi Lehtonen; Giorgio Vacchiano; Masa Zorana Ostrogovic Sever; Andrey L D Augustynczik; Rüdiger Grote; Ina Kyselová; Annikki Mäkelä; Rasoul Yousefpour; Jan Krejza; Alessio Collalti; Christopher P O Reyer. Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change. Tree Physiology 2019, 39, 1937 -1960.

AMA Style

Katarína Merganičová, Ján Merganič, Aleksi Lehtonen, Giorgio Vacchiano, Masa Zorana Ostrogovic Sever, Andrey L D Augustynczik, Rüdiger Grote, Ina Kyselová, Annikki Mäkelä, Rasoul Yousefpour, Jan Krejza, Alessio Collalti, Christopher P O Reyer. Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change. Tree Physiology. 2019; 39 (12):1937-1960.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Katarína Merganičová; Ján Merganič; Aleksi Lehtonen; Giorgio Vacchiano; Masa Zorana Ostrogovic Sever; Andrey L D Augustynczik; Rüdiger Grote; Ina Kyselová; Annikki Mäkelä; Rasoul Yousefpour; Jan Krejza; Alessio Collalti; Christopher P O Reyer. 2019. "Forest carbon allocation modelling under climate change." Tree Physiology 39, no. 12: 1937-1960.

Accepted manuscript
Published: 20 September 2019 in Environmental Research Letters
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Uncertainty about climate change impacts on forests can hinder mitigation and adaptation actions. Scientific enquiry typically involves assessments of uncertainties, yet different uncertainty components emerge in different studies. Consequently, inconsistent understanding of uncertainty among different climate impact studies (from the impact analysis to implementing solutions) can be an additional reason for delaying action. In this review we a) expanded existing uncertainty assessment frameworks into one harmonised framework for characterizing uncertainty, b) used this framework to identify and classify uncertainties in climate change impacts studies on forests, and c) summarised the uncertainty assessment methods applied in those studies. We systematically reviewed climate change impact studies published between 1994 and 2016. We separated these studies into those generating information about climate change impacts on forests using models –"modelling studies", and those that used this information to design management actions – "decision-making studies". We classified uncertainty across three dimensions: nature, level, and location, which can be further categorised into specific uncertainty types. We found that different uncertainties prevail in modelling versus decision-making studies. Epistemic uncertainty is the most common nature of uncertainty covered by both types of studies, whereas ambiguity plays a pronounced role only in decision-making studies. Modelling studies equally investigate all levels of uncertainty, whereas decision-making studies mainly address scenario uncertainty and recognised ignorance. Finally, the main location of uncertainty for both modelling and decision-making studies is within the driving forces – representing, e.g., socioeconomic or policy changes. The most frequently used methods to assess uncertainty are expert elicitation, sensitivity and scenario analysis, but a full suite of methods exists that seems currently underutilized. The misalignment of uncertainty types addressed by modelling and decision-making studies may complicate adaptation actions early in the implementation pathway. Furthermore, these differences can be a potential barrier for communicating research findings to decision-makers.

ACS Style

Michal Petr; Giorgio Vacchiano; Dominic Thom; Paola Mairota; Markus Kautz; Luisa M.S. Goncalves; Rasoul Yousefpour; Spiros Kaloudis; Christopher P.O. Reyer. Inconsistent recognition of uncertainty in studies of climate change impacts on forests. Environmental Research Letters 2019, 14, 113003 .

AMA Style

Michal Petr, Giorgio Vacchiano, Dominic Thom, Paola Mairota, Markus Kautz, Luisa M.S. Goncalves, Rasoul Yousefpour, Spiros Kaloudis, Christopher P.O. Reyer. Inconsistent recognition of uncertainty in studies of climate change impacts on forests. Environmental Research Letters. 2019; 14 (11):113003.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Michal Petr; Giorgio Vacchiano; Dominic Thom; Paola Mairota; Markus Kautz; Luisa M.S. Goncalves; Rasoul Yousefpour; Spiros Kaloudis; Christopher P.O. Reyer. 2019. "Inconsistent recognition of uncertainty in studies of climate change impacts on forests." Environmental Research Letters 14, no. 11: 113003.

Preprint content
Published: 15 January 2019
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Petra Lasch-Born; Felicitas Suckow; Christopher O. P. Reyer; Martin Gutsch; Chris Kollas; Franz-Werner Badeck; Harald K. M. Bugmann; Rüdiger Grote; Cornelia Fürstenau; Jörg Schaber. Supplementary material to "Description and evaluation of the process-based forest model 4C at four European forest sites". 2019, 1 .

AMA Style

Petra Lasch-Born, Felicitas Suckow, Christopher O. P. Reyer, Martin Gutsch, Chris Kollas, Franz-Werner Badeck, Harald K. M. Bugmann, Rüdiger Grote, Cornelia Fürstenau, Jörg Schaber. Supplementary material to "Description and evaluation of the process-based forest model 4C at four European forest sites". . 2019; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Petra Lasch-Born; Felicitas Suckow; Christopher O. P. Reyer; Martin Gutsch; Chris Kollas; Franz-Werner Badeck; Harald K. M. Bugmann; Rüdiger Grote; Cornelia Fürstenau; Jörg Schaber. 2019. "Supplementary material to "Description and evaluation of the process-based forest model 4C at four European forest sites"." , no. : 1.