Vegetation change and ecological quality of the Loess Plateau (LP) are directly related to ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin. Based on LP ecological zoning and multisource remote sensing data, we analyzed vegetation change and its relationship with climate, terrestrial water storage (TWS), and land use/cover change from 2000 to 2020, using the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), fraction of vegetation cover (FVC), and net primary productivity (NPP). And ecological environmental quality was evaluated based on the remote sensing ecological index (RSEI). The results showed that the spatial distribution pattern of NDVI, FVC and NPP decreased from southeast to northwest in the LP as a whole. Vegetation in the LP recovered significantly, and NDVI, FVC, and NPP showed significant increases of 35.66%, 34%, and 54.69%, respectively. The average NDVI and FVC in the earth–rocky mountainous region and river valley plain region (Area D) were the highest, but the growth rate was the slowest. The average NDVI, FVC, and growth rates in the loess hilly and gully regions (Area B) were slightly higher than those in the loess sorghum gully region (Area A). The average NDVI, FVC, and NPP in the sandy land and agricultural irrigation regions (Area C) were the lowest but showed significant increase. RSEI in most LP areas changed from poor to medium, increasing by 43.45%. Precipitation is the basic factor affecting vegetation cover pattern, with the increase (40.79 mm/10a) promoting vegetation restoration in the LP. Vegetation restoration lost much TWS (−0.6 mm/month), and Area D had the highest average NDVI, FVC, and NPP but the largest TWS loss. Anthropogenic land use/cover change (LUCC) (decrease in cultivated land and unused land; increase in forest, grassland, and construction land) is the primary factor affecting LP vegetation change. This study provides a scientific reference for further vegetation restoration in the LP.

Quantification of the impacts of climate change on streamflow and other hydrological parameters is of high importance and remains a challenge in arid areas. This study applied a modified distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) to the Yarkant River basin, China to assess hydrological changes under future climate change scenarios. Climate change was assessed based on six CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs), three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370), and several bias correction methods, whereas hydrological regime changes were assessed over two timeframes, referred to as the near future (2021–2049) and the far future (2071–2099). Results demonstrate that the DM (distribution mapping) and LOCI (local intensity scaling) bias correction methods most closely fit the projections of temperature and precipitation, respectively. The climate projections predicted a rise in temperature of 1.72–1.79 °C under the three SSP scenarios for the near future, and 3.76–6.22 °C under the three SSPs for the far future. Precipitation increased by 10.79–12% in the near future, and by 14.82–29.07% during the far future. It is very likely that streamflow will increase during both the near future (10.62–19.2%) and far future (36.69–70.4%) under all three scenarios. The increase in direct flow will be greater than baseflow. Summer and winter streamflow will increase the most, while the increase in streamflow was projected to reach a maximum during June and July over the near future. Over the far future, runoff reached a peak in May and June. The timing of peak streamflow will change from August to July in comparison to historical records. Both high- and low-flow magnitudes during March, April, and May (MAM) as well as June, July, and August (JJA) will increase by varying degrees, whereas the frequency of low flows will decrease during both MAM and JJA. High flow frequency in JJA was projected to decrease. Overall, our results reveal that the hydrological regime of the Yarkant River is likely to change and will be characterized by larger seasonal uncertainty and more frequent extreme events due to significant warming over the two periods. These changes should be seriously considered during policy development.

As an important agricultural and gathering area in arid inland areas of China, the ecological environments of oasis areas are more sensitive to regional climate change and human activities. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the oases in the Tarim River basin (TRB) and quantitatively evaluates the regional ecological security of oases via a remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) and net primary productivity (NPP) through the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that the total plain oasis area in the TRB during the study period experienced an increasing trend, with the area expanding by 8.21%. Specifically, the artificial oases (cultivated and industrial land) showed a notable increase, whereas the natural oases (forests and grassland) exhibited an apparent decrease. Among the indictors of oasis change, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) increased from 0.13 to 0.16, the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) expanded by 36.79%, and NPP increased by 31.55%. RSEI changes indicated that the eco-environment of the TRB region went from poor grade to general grade; 69% of the region’s eco-environment improved, especially in western mountainous areas, and less than 5% of the regions’ eco-ecological areas were degraded, mainly occurring in the desert-oasis ecotone. Changes in land- use types of oases indicated that human activities had a more significant influence on oases expansion than natural factors. Our results have substantial implications for environment protection and sustainable economic development along the Silk Road Economic Belt.

Global warming has generally led to changes in river runoffs fed by snow and glacier meltwater in mountain ranges. The runoff of the Aksu River, which originates in the Southern Tienshan Mountains, exhibited a positive trend during 1979–2002, but this trend reversed during 2002–2015. Through a comprehensive analysis, this study aims to estimate potential reasons for changes in the runoff of its two contrasting headwaters: the Toxkan and Kumalak Rivers, based on climatic data, the altitude of the 0 °C isotherm, glacier mass balance (GMB), snow cover area (SCA), snow depth (SD) and the sensitivity model. For the Toxkan River, the decrease in spring runoff mainly resulted from reductions in precipitation, whereas the decrease in summer runoff was mainly caused by early snowmelt in spring and a much-reduced snow meltwater supply in summer. In addition, the obvious glacier area reduction in the catchment (decreased to less than 4%) also contributed to the reduced summer runoff. For the Kumalak River, a sharp decrease rate of 10.21 × 10⁸ m³/decade in runoff was detected due to summertime cooling of both surface and upper air temperatures. Reduced summer temperatures with a positive trend in precipitation not only inhibited glacier melting but also dropped the 0 °C layer altitude, resulting in a significant increase in summertime SCA and SD, a slowing of the glacier negative mass balance, and a lowering of the snow-line altitude.

The Tien Shan is regarded as the “Water tower of Central Asia,” being a solid reservoir of freshwater resources and also a natural and early warning indicator of climate change. Research on glaciers is important for the sustainable development and management of water resources in Central Asia. This study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of glaciers in the northern Tien Shan from 1990 to 2015 using multi-source remote sensing and meteorological data. The results showed that the total area and volume of glaciers in the northern Tien Shan exhibited negative trends, decreasing by 456.43 km² (16.08%) and 26.14 km³ (16.38%), respectively. The reduction in the total glacier area exhibited an accelerating trend, decreasing by 0.60%/a before 2000, but by 0.71%/a after 2000. Glaciers in the outer northern Tien Shan region, with areas < 2 km² showed the greatest shrinkage, especially those in the northeastern and southwestern regions. All aspects in the northern Tien Shan exhibited negative trends in the glacier area, especially in the east–west aspects (shrinkage of 24.74–38.37%). Regarding altitude, the termini of glaciers rose continuously from 1990 to 2015, particularly for glaciers below 3700 m, with a total area decrease of 30.37%, and the lower altitude of the glaciers showed a higher area decrease.

The aim of this research was to use the standardized runoff index (SRI) with a three-month timescale (SRI-3) to analyze hydrological drought risk in two arid river basins characterized by different runoff regimes, Northwest China. Based on SRI-3, hydrological drought levels for different events were defined through run theory. The hydrological drought risk in the two study basins was then comprehensively assessed using a multidimensional copula function that considered the multivariable joint probability of hydrological drought duration, severity, intensity and peak. Results indicate that: (1) the risk of hydrological drought in the two basins between 1961–2018 periodically changed. There was a slight increase in risk within the Yarkant River Basin, while there was a clear decrease in risk within the Kaidu River Basin. The magnitude of drought in the two basins was relatively low; both basins were dominated by mild to moderate hydrological droughts; (2) the drought probabilities of the Yarkant River Basin and Kaidu River Basin from 1961 to 2018 exhibited a falling-rising-falling pattern and a rising-falling trend through time, respectively. These trends were correlated with changes in precipitation and the area of glacial ice, which presumably influenced the amount and source of runoff in the two basins. Hydrological drought risk in the Yarkant River Basin was higher than in the Kaidu River Basin; and (3) the return period of mild, moderate, severe and extreme drought events was 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 20 yrs, and 60 yrs in the Yarkant River Basin, respectively, and 2 yrs, 8 yrs, 23 yrs and 74 yrs in the Kaidu River Basin, respectively.