As an important agricultural and gathering area in arid inland areas of China, the ecological environments of oasis areas are more sensitive to regional climate change and human activities. This paper investigates the dynamic evolution of the oases in the Tarim River basin (TRB) and quantitatively evaluates the regional ecological security of oases via a remote sensing ecological index (RSEI) and net primary productivity (NPP) through the Carnegie–Ames–Stanford approach (CASA) from 2000 to 2020. The results indicate that the total plain oasis area in the TRB during the study period experienced an increasing trend, with the area expanding by 8.21%. Specifically, the artificial oases (cultivated and industrial land) showed a notable increase, whereas the natural oases (forests and grassland) exhibited an apparent decrease. Among the indictors of oasis change, the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) increased from 0.13 to 0.16, the fraction of vegetation cover (FVC) expanded by 36.79%, and NPP increased by 31.55%. RSEI changes indicated that the eco-environment of the TRB region went from poor grade to general grade; 69% of the region’s eco-environment improved, especially in western mountainous areas, and less than 5% of the regions’ eco-ecological areas were degraded, mainly occurring in the desert-oasis ecotone. Changes in land- use types of oases indicated that human activities had a more significant influence on oases expansion than natural factors. Our results have substantial implications for environment protection and sustainable economic development along the Silk Road Economic Belt.

In arid areas, lakes play important roles in sustaining the local ecology, mitigating flood hazard, and restricting economic activity of society. In this study, we used multi-temporal satellite data to study annual variations in 16 natural lakes with individual surface areas over 10 km², categorized into six regions based on their geographical and climatic information and on their relations with climate variables. Results indicated that annual variations in lake surface areas are different across these six regions. The surface area of Kanas Lake has not obviously changed due to its typical U-shape cross section; the areas of Ulungur Lake and Jili Lake increased sharply in the 1980s and then slightly decreased; the areas of Sayram Lake, Ebinur Lake, and Bosten Lake increased and then decreased, with peaks detected in the early 2000s; the areas of Barkol Lake and Toale Culler decreased, while those of the lakes located in the Kunlun Mountains steadily increased. Lake areas also show various relationships with climate variables. There is no obvious relationship between area and climate variables in Kanas Lake due to the specific lake morphology; the areas of most lakes showed positive correlations with annual precipitation (except Sayram Lake). A negative correlation between area and temperature were detected in Ulungur Lake, Jili Lake, Barkol Lake, and Toale Culler, while positive correlations were suggested in Bosten Lake and the lakes in the Kunlun Mountains (e.g., Saligil Kollakan Lake, Aksai Chin Lake, and Urukkule Lake).

Lake water resources in arid areas play an important role in regional resource and environmental management. Therefore, to master the dynamic changes in lake water resources in arid areas, the laser altimetry satellite and land resource satellite were used to interpret the changes in water level and the areas of alpine lakes and non-alpine lakes. The dynamic changes in the lake and their relationship with glacial meltwater, precipitation, and runoff of the lake basin were analyzed using the unary linear regression equation, the ratio of glacier area to lake area (G–L ratio), and the ratio of lake basin area to lake area (supply coefficient). The results were as follows: the changes in alpine lakes were closely related to the supply coefficient (basin/lake area ratio) but weakly related to the G–L ratio (glacier/lake area ratio). In addition, the spatial pattern of lake change was consistent with that of climate change. There was a strong correlation between the lake, precipitation, and temperature during the snowmelt period. Thus, it can be seen that the changes in the lake were caused by precipitation, glacial melt, snowmelt, and other multi-factors. Therefore, this study on the changes in water resources in different types of lakes and their influencing factors provides data support for water resources managers to evaluate the health and sustainable utilization of the ecological environment.

To reveal the evolution characteristics and driving factors of net primary productivity (NPP) of vegetation in arid regions, with Kashi region as a representative case, this study utilized various remote sensing satellite data, including MOD13A1/Q1, MOD09A1, and MOD17A3, to estimate vegetation NPP in the study area from 2001 to 2020 using the CASA model. The study aimed to express the impact of external driving factors on vegetation NPP from the perspectives of climate change and land use change. The results indicated: (1) Over the past two decades, the overall trend of vegetation NPP in the study area exhibited an initial increase, followed by a subsequent decrease. Specifically, from 2001 to 2015, vegetation NPP increased at a rate of 0.303, while from 2016 to 2020, it decreased at a rate of -0.202. (2) Through trend analysis and significance testing using the Sen+MK method, it was found that 37% of the study area showed a significant increasing trend in NPP, while 73% exhibited a decreasing trend. (3) Precipitation in the Kashi region had a stronger correlation with NPP than temperature. In the southwest region, the Pamir Plateau and Karakoram Mountains showed positive correlations with both temperature and precipitation, with warm and moist airflows promoting NPP in high latitudes. (4) )During the period of 2001-2020, Grassland in the study area degraded at the fastest rate, with a change rate of -2.1%, and the largest increase was observed in farmland, with a change rate of 2.7%; the vegetation NPP decreased by a total of 2748.3 TgC , and the study area shows a decreasing trend in the value of vegetation NPP in the future period.

Flood records of the Kunmalik River in Chinese Tien Shan mountains have showed that glacier- dammed lake outburst floods (GLOF) had occurred almost every year since 1956 from the glaci-er-dammed Lake Merzbacher. However, GLOF in cold season is seldomly studied. The defense and management of the flood need further observation and study. The maximum peak discharge of 825 m3/s occurred on 5th December 1996 with the maximum flood volume of 2.875×108 m3, which was 18 times larger than that of the mean daily discharge in winter over the past six decades. The drainage of the Merzbacher lake is not a mechanical breaking up of the glacier dam, but the release of pressurized water along a subglacial tunnel triggered by quickly surge of the Northern Glacier, the subglacial tunnels are enlarged by both ice melting and frictional heat in the flooding water and heat under the glaciated dam and the lake in winter. There is no correlation between the GLOF size and air temperature of cold season. The floods in cold season have become bigger since 1996 than that before, and the flood duration has been extended from winter to spring. Once the cold GLOF starts, its discharge can be forecasted day by day to extrapolate the monitoring hydrograph as a linear curve.

Future climate change is expected to affect components of the hydrological cycle. However geologic factors can sometimes be more important than the climate with regarding to change hydrological processes. The Keriya River is a large glacier-fed river in the western Tibet Plateau, its upper reaches flow across active fault zones, which have experienced four medium-sized earthquakes within four months 1974. These active faults have made difficult to identify normal meltwater changes using a snow-ice melt model. Because of the seismic events, the river has experienced substantial changes in their drainage systems and complex hydrological processes. Both the Mann-Kendall trend test and a correlation analysis were applied to detect the monthly patterns of stream flows, the change points and the correlations among both summer discharge and air temperature before and after seismic events. We found significant correlations between monthly air temperature and meltwater flow in the summer June during the pre-earthquake of 1958-1974, but none in July and August in the post-earthquake of 1975-1980, and we found no correlation following the earthquake. The correlations were the inverse by losing the former and setting up the latter alternately since the multiple earthquakes. Clearly, the earthquakes and changes in the faults can greatly induce hydrological processes.