With continuing influx of large numbers of people into coastal regions, human stresses on coastal ecosystems and resources are growing at the same time that climate variability and change and associated consequences in the marine environment are making coastal areas less secure for human habitation. The article reviews both climatic and nonclimatic drivers of the growing stresses on coastal natural and human systems, painting a picture of the mostly harmful impacts that result and the interactive and systemic challenges coastal managers face in managing these growing risks. Although adaptive responses are beginning to emerge, the adaptation challenge is enormous and requires not just incremental but also transformative changes. At the same time, such “wicked” problems, by definition, defy all-encompassing, definitive, and final solutions; instead, temporary best solutions will have to be sought in the context of an iterative, deliberately learning-oriented risk management framework.

Williams, S.J., 2013. Sea-level rise implications for coastal regions. In: Brock, J.C.; Barras, J.A., and Williams, S.J. (eds.), Understanding and Predicting Change in the Coastal Ecosystems of the Northern Gulf of Mexico, Journal of Coastal Research, Special Issue No. 63, pp. 184–196, Coconut Creek (Florida), ISSN 0749-0208. Sea-level rise, a dominant driving force of change for coastal regions, is becoming increasingly important as a hazard to humans and urban areas in the coastal zone worldwide as global climate change takes effect. The geologic record shows that sea level, due to past natural climate factors, has been highly variable, as much as 6-8 m higher than present during the last interglacial warm period and 130 m lower during the last glacial period. Sea level was fairly stable for the past 3,000 years until about the mid- 19th century. During the 20th century, sea level began rising at a global average rate of 1.7 mm/yr. The current average rise rate is 3.1 mm/yr, a 50% increase over...

The National Park Service (NPS) is responsible for maintaining nearly 12,000 km (7,500 miles) of shoreline along oceans and lakes. In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with the NPS Geologic Resources Division, began conducting hazard assessments of future sea-level change by creating maps to assist NPS in managing its valuable coastal resources. This report presents the results of a vulnerability assessment for Cape Cod National Seashore (CACO), highlighting areas that are likely to be most affected by future sea-level rise.

The National Park Service (NPS) is responsible for maintaining nearly 12,000 km (7,500 miles) of shoreline along oceans and lakes. In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with the NPS Geologic Resources Division, began conducting hazard assessments of future sea-level change by creating maps to assist NPS in managing its valuable coastal resources. This report presents the results of a vulnerability assessment for Assateague Island National Seashore (ASIS), highlighting areas that are likely to be most affected by future sea-level rise.

The National Park Service (NPS) is responsible for maintaining nearly 12,000 km (7,500 miles) of shoreline along oceans and lakes. In 2001, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in partnership with the NPS Geologic Resources Division, began conducting hazard assessments of future sea-level change by creating maps to assist NPS in managing its valuable coastal resources. This report presents the results of a vulnerability assessment for Fire Island National Seashore (FIIS), highlighting areas that are likely to be most affected by future sea-level rise.

An 8500-year Holocene simulation developed in GEOMBEST provides a possible scenario to explain the evolution of barrier coast between Rodanthe and Cape Hatteras, NC. Sensitivity analyses suggest that in the Outer Banks, the rate of sea-level rise is the most important factor in determining how barrier islands evolve. The Holocene simulation provides a basis for future simulations, which suggest that if sea level rises up to 0.88 m by AD 2100, as predicted by the highest estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the barrier in the study area may migrate on the order of 2.5 times more rapidly than at present. If sea level rises beyond IPCC predictions to reach 1.4–1.9 m above modern sea level by AD 2100, model results suggest that barrier islands in the Outer Banks may become vulnerable to threshold collapse, disintegrating during storm events, by the end of the next century. Consistent with sensitivity analyses, additional simulations indicate that anthropogenic activities, such as increasing the rate of sediment supply through beach nourishment, will only slightly affect barrier island migration rates and barrier island vulnerability to collapse.