Locations along the inner-continental shelf offshore of Fire Island, NY, are characterized by a series of shoreface-connected ridges (SFCRs). These sand ridges have approximate dimensions of 10 km in length, 3 km spacing, and up to ∼8 m ridge to trough relief and are oriented obliquely at approximately 30° clockwise from the coastline. Stability analysis from previous studies explains how sand ridges such as these could be formed and maintained by storm-driven flows directed alongshore with a key maintenance mechanism of offshore deflected flows over ridge crests and onshore in the troughs. We examine these processes both with a limited set of idealized numerical simulations and analysis of observational data. Model results confirm that alongshore flows over the SFCRs exhibit offshore veering of currents over the ridge crests and onshore-directed flows in the troughs, and demonstrate the opposite circulation pattern for a reverse wind. To further investigate these maintenance processes, oceanographic instruments were deployed at seven sites on the SFCRs offshore of Fire Island to measure water levels, ocean currents, waves, suspended sediment concentrations, and bottom stresses from January to April 2012. Data analysis reveals that during storms with winds from the northeast, the processes of offshore deflection of currents over ridge crests and onshore in the troughs were observed, and during storm events with winds from the southwest, a reverse flow pattern over the ridges occurred. Computations of suspended sediment fluxes identify periods that are consistent with SFCR maintenance mechanisms. Alongshore winds from the northeast drove fluxes offshore on the ridge crest and onshore in the trough that would tend to promote ridge maintenance. However, alongshore winds from the southwest drove opposite circulations. The wind fields are related to different storm types that occur in the region (low-pressure systems, cold fronts, and warm fronts). From the limited data set, we identify that low-pressure systems drive sediment fluxes that tend to promote stability and maintain the SFCRs while cold front type storms appear to drive circulations that are in the opposite sense and may not be a supporting mechanism for ridge maintenance.

Mechanisms relating offshore geologic framework to shoreline evolution are determined through geologic investigations, oceanographic deployments, and numerical modeling. Analysis of shoreline positions from the past 50 years along Fire Island, New York, a 50 km long barrier island, demonstrates a persistent undulating shape along the western half of the island. The shelf offshore of these persistent undulations is characterized with shoreface‐connected sand ridges (SFCR) of a similar alongshore length scale, leading to a hypothesis that the ridges control the shoreline shape through the modification of flow. To evaluate this, a hydrodynamic model was configured to start with the US East Coast and scale down to resolve the Fire Island nearshore. The model was validated using observations along western Fire Island and buoy data, and used to compute waves, currents and sediment fluxes. To isolate the influence of the SFCR on the generation of the persistent shoreline shape, simulations were performed with a linearized nearshore bathymetry to remove alongshore transport gradients associated with shoreline shape. The model accurately predicts the scale and variation of the alongshore transport that would generate the persistent shoreline undulations. In one location, however, the ridge crest connects to the nearshore and leads to an offshore‐directed transport that produces a difference in the shoreline shape. This qualitatively supports the hypothesized effect of cross‐shore fluxes on coastal evolution. Alongshore flows in the nearshore during a representative storm are driven by wave breaking, vortex force, advection and pressure gradient, all of which are affected by the SFCR.

Analytical models predict the growth (instability) of shoreline salients when deep-water waves approach the coast from highly oblique angles, contrary to classical shoreline change models in which shoreline salients can only dissipate. Using the process-based wave, circulation, and sediment transport model Delft3D, we test this prediction for simulated bathymetric and wave characteristics approximating the open-ocean conditions at Duck, North Carolina. We consider two cases: a uniform coast with a varying wave approach angle, and a bathymetry with coastal salients and a single high-angle boundary wave condition. Incident wave conditions include a swell case with no wind and a wind-wave case with active local wave regeneration by wind. The uniform-coast tests predict transport maxima at oblique wave angles for both wave cases, indicating the potential for shoreline instabilities, similar to the analytical models. However, the critical angle for instability is much higher in the wind-wave case. Our tests with coastal salients agree with previous findings that a minimum salient length scale may be required for the instability effect to be active. Here, a salient with a longshore scale of 4 km results in transport divergence (erosion; no instability) at the salient crest while an 8 km salient results in transport convergence (accretion; instability) at the crest.

An 8500-year Holocene simulation developed in GEOMBEST provides a possible scenario to explain the evolution of barrier coast between Rodanthe and Cape Hatteras, NC. Sensitivity analyses suggest that in the Outer Banks, the rate of sea-level rise is the most important factor in determining how barrier islands evolve. The Holocene simulation provides a basis for future simulations, which suggest that if sea level rises up to 0.88 m by AD 2100, as predicted by the highest estimates of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the barrier in the study area may migrate on the order of 2.5 times more rapidly than at present. If sea level rises beyond IPCC predictions to reach 1.4–1.9 m above modern sea level by AD 2100, model results suggest that barrier islands in the Outer Banks may become vulnerable to threshold collapse, disintegrating during storm events, by the end of the next century. Consistent with sensitivity analyses, additional simulations indicate that anthropogenic activities, such as increasing the rate of sediment supply through beach nourishment, will only slightly affect barrier island migration rates and barrier island vulnerability to collapse.