Ipilimumab is a monoclonal antibody to cytotoxic T-lymphocyte antigen 4 (CTLA-4) that induces antitumor immune responses by removing a key negative regulator of T cell activation. This antibody was the first agent to demonstrate improved overall survival for patients with advanced melanoma and received regulatory approval in 2011.^1,2 Furthermore, durable benefits have been observed, with approximately 20% of patients surviving at least 5 years.^3,4

Purpose: Combination PD-1 and CTLA-4 inhibitor therapy has dramatically improved the survival of patients with advanced melanoma but is also associated with significant immune-related toxicities. This study sought to identify circulating cytokine biomarkers of treatment response and immune-related toxicity. Experimental Design: The expression of 65 cytokines was profiled longitudinally in 98 patients with melanoma treated with PD-1 inhibitors, alone or in combination with anti-CTLA-4, and in an independent validation cohort of 49 patients treated with combination anti-PD-1 and anti-CTLA-4. Cytokine expression was correlated with RECIST response and immune-related toxicity, defined as toxicity that warranted permanent discontinuation of treatment and administration of high-dose steroids. Results: Eleven cytokines were significantly upregulated in patients with severe immune-related toxicities at baseline (PRE) and early during treatment (EDT). The expression of these 11 cytokines was integrated into a single toxicity score, the CYTOX (cytokine toxicity) score, and the predictive utility of this score was confirmed in the discovery and validation cohorts. The AUC for the CYTOX score in the validation cohort was 0.68 at PRE [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.51–0.84; P = 0.037] and 0.70 at EDT (95% CI, 0.55–0.85; P = 0.017) using ROC analysis. Conclusions: The CYTOX score is predictive of severe immune-related toxicity in patients with melanoma treated with combination anti-CTLA-4 and anti-PD-1 immunotherapy. This score, which includes proinflammatory cytokines such as IL1a, IL2, and IFNα2, may help in the early management of severe, potentially life-threatening immune-related toxicity. See related commentary by Johnson and Balko, p. 1452

Transcriptomic signatures designed to predict melanoma patient responses to PD-1 blockade have been reported but rarely validated. We now show that intra-patient heterogeneity of tumor responses to PD-1 inhibition limit the predictive performance of these signatures. We reasoned that resistance mechanisms will reflect the tumor microenvironment, and thus we examined PD-1 inhibitor resistance relative to T-cell activity in 94 melanoma tumors collected at baseline and at time of PD-1 inhibitor progression. Tumors were analyzed using RNA sequencing and flow cytometry, and validated functionally. These analyses confirm that major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I downregulation is a hallmark of resistance to PD-1 inhibitors and is associated with the MITF^low/AXL^high de-differentiated phenotype and cancer-associated fibroblast signatures. We demonstrate that TGFß drives the treatment resistant phenotype (MITF^low/AXL^high) and contributes to MHC class I downregulation in melanoma. Combinations of anti-PD-1 with drugs that target the TGFß signaling pathway and/or which reverse melanoma de-differentiation may be effective future therapeutic strategies.

Programmed death 1 (PD1) inhibitors are now a foundation of medical management of metastatic melanoma. This study sought to determine whether circulating tumour DNA (ctDNA) provides useful early response and prognostic information. We evaluated the relationship between pre-treatment and early on treatment ctDNA and outcome in melanoma patients treated with PD1 inhibitors alone or in combination with ipilimumab. ctDNA was detected in 40/76 patients (53%) at baseline, and correlated with stage, LDH levels, disease volume and ECOG performance. RECIST response was 72% (26/36) in group A (undetectable ctDNA at baseline), 77% (17/22) in group B (elevated ctDNA at baseline but undetectable within 12 weeks of therapy) and 6% (1/18) in group C (elevated ctDNA at baseline and remained elevated during treatment). The median PFS was not reached in groups A and B and was 2.7 months for group C [hazard ratio (HR) 0.09; P < 0.001 for group A versus C, and 0.16; P < 0.001 for group B versus C]. The median OS was not reached for groups A and B and was 9.2 months for group C (HR 0.02; P < 0.001 for group A versus C and 0.14; P < 0.001 for group B versus C). The poor outcome measures associated with group C remained significant in multivariate analysis adjusted for LDH, performance status, tumour stage and disease volume. The predictive value for ctDNA for response was confirmed in a separate validation cohort (n = 29, P < 0.01). Longitudinal assessment of ctDNA in metastatic melanoma patients receiving treatment with PD1 inhibitors is an accurate predictor of tumour response, PFS and OS. Patients who had a persistently elevated ctDNA on therapy had a poor prognosis, and this may guide combination and sequencing of subsequent therapies.

Circulating tumor DNA to monitor treatment response and detect acquired resistance in patients with metastatic melanoma

Importance Longitudinal circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has been shown to predict response and survival in patients with metastatic melanoma treated with anti–programmed cell death 1 (PD-1) antibodies. Pseudoprogression, defined as radiologic finding of disease progression prior to response, has been a challenge to clinicians. Objective To establish whether ctDNA at baseline and up to week 12 of treatment can differentiate between the radiologic findings of pseudoprogression and true progression in patients with metastatic melanoma. Design, Setting, and Participants This explorative biomarker study examined circulatingBRAFandNRASmutations in a cohort of 125 patients with melanoma receiving PD-1 antibodies alone or in combination with ipilimumab between July 3, 2014, and May 24, 2016. Pseudoprogression was defined retrospectively as radiologic progression not confirmed as progressive disease at the next radiologic assessment. Plasma samples of ctDNA at baseline and while receiving treatment were taken for analysis prospectively over the first 12 weeks of treatment. Favorable ctDNA profile (undetectable ctDNA at baseline or detectable ctDNA at baseline followed by >10-fold decrease) and unfavorable ctDNA profile (detectable ctDNA at baseline that remained stable or increased) were correlated with response and prognosis. Main Outcomes and Measures Early differentiation of pseudoprogression from true progression using longitudinal ctDNA profile. Results According to guidelines by Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST), progressive disease occurred in 29 of the 125 patients (23.2%). Of the 29 patients, 17 (59%) were 65 years or younger, 18 (62%) were men, 9 (31%) had pseudoprogression, and 20 (69%) had true progression. Of the 9 patients (7%) with confirmed pseudoprogression, all patients had a favorable ctDNA profile. At a median follow-up of 110 weeks, 7 of 9 patients (78%) were alive. All but 2 patients with true progression had an unfavorable ctDNA profile. Sensitivity of ctDNA for predicting pseudoprogression was 90% (95% CI, 68%-99%) and specificity was 100% (95% CI, 60%-100%). The 1-year survival for patients with RECIST-defined progressive disease and favorable ctDNA was 82% vs 39% for unfavorable ctDNA (hazard ratio [HR], 4.8; 95% CI, 1.6-14.3;P = .02). Overall survival was longer in patients with a partial response (54 of 125 patients [43%]) compared with patients with progressive disease and a favorable ctDNA profile (11 of 125 patients [9%]; HR, 0.09; 95% CI, 0.01-0.80;P < .01). Conclusions and Relevance The results demonstrate that ctDNA profiles can accurately differentiate pseudoprogression from true progression of disease in patients with melanoma treated with PD-1 antibodies. Results of this blood test performed at regular intervals during systemic treatment reflect tumor biology and have potential as a powerful biomarker to predict long-term response and survival.