This paper aims to identify the determinants and predictors of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ financial failure. Within this framework, we have opted for a quantitative method based on a sample of healthy and failing SMEs of a Moroccan bank. The main results of the different optimal models are obtained by the stepwise method of estimating logistic regression. These results show, in a normal economic context, that the variables that discriminate between healthy and failing SMEs are the main predictors of financial failure. Autonomy ratio, interest to sales, asset turnover, days in accounts receivable, and duration of trade payables are the variables that increase the probability of financial failure, while repayment capacity and return on assets reduce the probability of failure. These variables present an overall classification rate of healthy and failing SMEs of 91.11% three years before failure and of 84.44% two years and one year before failure.

In the face of rising defaults and limited studies on the prediction of financial distress in Morocco, this article aims to determine the most relevant predictors of financial distress and identify its optimal prediction models in a normal Moroccan economic context over two years. To achieve these objectives, logistic regression and neural networks are used based on financial ratios selected by lasso and stepwise techniques. Our empirical results highlight the significant role of predictors, namely interest to sales and return on assets in predicting financial distress. The results show that logistic regression models obtained by stepwise selection outperform the other models with an overall accuracy of 93.33% two years before financial distress and 95.00% one year prior to financial distress. Results also show that our models classify distressed SMEs better than healthy SMEs with type I errors lower than type II errors.

This study examines the transmission of monetary policy to bank credit granted to the non-financial private sector in Morocco, a bank-dominated emerging economy where non-financial corporations play a central role in investment, employment, and economic growth. Using monthly data over the period 2006–2023, the analysis relies on an ARDL–ECM framework that distinguishes short-run credit dynamics from long-run adjustment processes while accounting for potential structural breaks. The results indicate that changes in the policy rate do not exert a statistically significant effect on bank credit in the short run, suggesting a high degree of credit inertia. The bounds test supports the existence of a stable long-run equilibrium relationship in credit, although no significant long-run elasticities with respect to monetary policy or credit risk variables are identified. Instead, credit dynamics appear to be driven primarily by short-run adjustment mechanisms, largely shaped by credit risk and balance-sheet allocation. Overall, these findings suggest that monetary transmission in Morocco operates gradually and indirectly, mainly through prudential and balance-sheet channels rather than the conventional interest-rate channel. This implies that the effectiveness of monetary policy depends critically on prevailing risk conditions and their interaction with prudential frameworks in bank-based emerging financial systems.

This article explores the determinants of bank credit granted to very small, small, and medium-sized enterprises (VSMEs) in Morocco over the period 2014-2024. The study focuses on the combined effects of monetary policy signals, prudential reg...

The main objective of this article is to determine the entrepreneurial determinants of Moroccan business failures. To address our research problem, we employ multiple regression models. Entrepreneurial behaviors and attitudes are sourced from the dataset provided by Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM). Additionally, we enhance our dataset by incorporating entrepreneurial variables from the World Bank entrepreneurship database and OMPIC. Applying variable selection techniques and models selection criteria, such as AIC and BIC, the main results indicate that the model composed of variables related to entrepreneurial behavior and attitudes variables, specifically fear of failure rate, perceived capabilities rate, and perceived opportunities rate, better explains bankruptcy rate. This empirical study represents the inaugural examination in Morocco employing entrepreneurial behaviors and attitudes variables to assess their impact on business failure. The findings from this article could open up new perspectives for identifying entrepreneurial variables that explain business failure in Morocco. To the best of our knowledge, our research is the first to explore this topic in this country.

This paper examines the short-run dynamics of monetary policy transmission in a bank-dominated emerging economy, with a focus on the relative timing of adjustments across financial valuations, balance-sheet aggregates, and inflation. Using monthly data over the period 2018–2024, the analysis relies on a reduced-form VAR framework. The results indicate that monetary policy innovations are more rapidly reflected in bank equity valuations proxied by the MASI banking index at short horizons, while balance-sheet variables exhibit more limited and less persistent adjustments. Inflation dynamics remain difficult to identify clearly within the short-run horizon, consistent with the gradual nature of price adjustments. These findings suggest that financial variables react more quickly to monetary policy innovations, while credit and macroeconomic variables adjust more gradually due to institutional constraints, risk considerations, and nominal rigidities. This pattern reflects heterogeneous adjustment speeds across variables rather than a structurally identified transmission mechanism. This paper provides evidence on the timing of short-run adjustments across financial and macroeconomic variables, highlighting the importance of temporal dynamics in the analysis of monetary transmission.