This paper aims to identify the determinants and predictors of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises (SMEs)’ financial failure. Within this framework, we have opted for a quantitative method based on a sample of healthy and failing SMEs of a Moroccan bank. The main results of the different optimal models are obtained by the stepwise method of estimating logistic regression. These results show, in a normal economic context, that the variables that discriminate between healthy and failing SMEs are the main predictors of financial failure. Autonomy ratio, interest to sales, asset turnover, days in accounts receivable, and duration of trade payables are the variables that increase the probability of financial failure, while repayment capacity and return on assets reduce the probability of failure. These variables present an overall classification rate of healthy and failing SMEs of 91.11% three years before failure and of 84.44% two years and one year before failure.

In the face of rising defaults and limited studies on the prediction of financial distress in Morocco, this article aims to determine the most relevant predictors of financial distress and identify its optimal prediction models in a normal Moroccan economic context over two years. To achieve these objectives, logistic regression and neural networks are used based on financial ratios selected by lasso and stepwise techniques. Our empirical results highlight the significant role of predictors, namely interest to sales and return on assets in predicting financial distress. The results show that logistic regression models obtained by stepwise selection outperform the other models with an overall accuracy of 93.33% two years before financial distress and 95.00% one year prior to financial distress. Results also show that our models classify distressed SMEs better than healthy SMEs with type I errors lower than type II errors.

Innovation, in all its forms, has become a central activity in companies. Moreover, innovation is considered as the engine of growth in several countries. The main objective of this paper is to study the determinants of innovation (product and process) in firms in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region via concentrating on the impact of financial and non-financial obstacles. The empirical study refers to row data collected by the World Bank’s Survey of Enterprises (WBES) between 2013 and 2020 in 10 MENA countries. The empirical results of the probit model estimation show that international quality certification, women’s participation in ownership, and investment in research and development (R&D) have a positive impact on all types of innovation. Nevertheless, small firms, sole proprietorships, and firms managed by women are found to be less innovative. The problem of endogeneity between innovation and financial obstacles is controlled thanks to the use of the instrumental regression method (IV-probit). The results confirm that the variable measuring the financial obstacles is endogenous, and it impacts all types of innovation negatively. The results of the IV-probit regression show that the non-financial obstacles related to the business environment which negatively affect innovation are: business licensing and permits, corruption, access to electricity, labor regulations, political instability, and the practices of competitors in the informal sector.

As a semi-arid/arid country located in the northwest of Africa, Morocco is facing serious water scarcity driven by the dual stresses of decreasing availability of water resources and increasing water demands. Virtual water trade could be an effective tool to alleviate water scarcity. The paper presents an analysis of the relationships between agrarian productions, foreign trade, and the water sector in Morocco by deriving a comprehensive estimate of virtual water export and import in Morocco’s foreign trade of 40 crop products during the period from 2000 to 2017. Our objectives include determining the intensity of water consumption of exported and imported crop products and quantifying the water consumed and saved, respectively, by locally producing and importing these products. To this end, FAO’s Penman-Monteith climate model was used to estimate crop water requirements based on data on meteorological factors. The results show that Morocco was a net virtual water importer during the study period. The deficit was 595.74 Gm³. The tendency of total virtual water export was on a rising trend, while the total virtual water import was on a downward trend. The main exported virtual water was from vegetables (68.87 Gm³, 72.47%) and the main imported virtual water was from cereals (679.68 Gm³, 98.4%). Regarding crop product’s water intensity, we found that the exported crop products were excessively concentrated on water-intensive products such as mandarins and clementines, figs, oranges, apricots, plums, citrus fruits, olives, tomatoes, asparagus, peas, and artichokes. On the other hand, the agricultural policy of 2009–2020 increased the production of water-intensive products. This finding seems to be going against the virtual water trade theory, which states that water-poor countries should import water-intensive products and produce local products with lower water requirements.

The applied literature on the MENA region remains fragmented between studies focused on the economic determinants of agricultural value added and climate and agriculture analyses via food security, without jointly assessing productive and climatic factors. This article fills that gap by measuring the combined effects of temperature, precipitation, capital, labor, and arable land on agricultural value added (VAAG) across 21 MENA countries over 1990–2024. We estimate a fixed effects model with cluster-robust standard errors and verify robustness using System GMM. The results indicate that rising temperatures are associated with a significant decline in VAAG, whereas moderate and regular rainfall, as well as endowments of capital, labor, and arable land, exert positive effects. Theoretically, the study highlights, over a long horizon and a reasonably homogeneous regional scope, the differentiated roles of thermal constraints and water availability, with inference strengthened by System GMM as a robustness check. Operationally, the findings support policies for efficient irrigation, decentralized storage, and managed aquifer recharge, alongside financial incentives and training to accelerate the adoption of resilient techniques, while safeguarding arable land. Together, these measures provide concrete levers to strengthen agricultural resilience in the MENA region.

Despite the tax reform in the 1980s, the Moroccan tax system still suffers from structural vulnerabilities that have led to inefficient tax policies and increasing sectoral disparities, which have led to an increase in the tax pressure rates between 1990 and 2020. To overcome these vulnerabilities, and according to the recommendations of the 2019 National Tax Conference, the Moroccan tax system has been recently restructured, with the aim of strengthening the principles of equity and tax efficiency. The main objective of this paper is to determine the impact of the tax pressure on long-term economic growth in Morocco from 1990 to 2020. To do so, the methodology adopted in this work consists of verifying the effect of the tax pressure on economic growth through a quantitative methodology based on two vector autoregression approaches: the vector autoregression model (VAR) and the vector error correction model (VECM). The results of this study confirm that the effect of fiscal pressure on economic growth in Morocco is not significant in the long run, and therefore, we can deduce that taxation is not yet a well-mastered instrument for the state to act on the economic sphere. The results show a complex relationship between tax pressures and economic growth in Morocco, underlining the importance of tax reform. However, the research is limited by the specific models and the need to explore other determinants. The contribution of this paper lies in its in-depth empirical analysis of fiscal pressure and its influence on long-term economic growth in Morocco, as based on VAR and VECM modeling. This econometric approach makes it possible to isolate the dynamic effects and responses of economic variables over time, offering an understanding of the interactions between tax policy and long-term economic growth. By focusing specifically on the Moroccan context, this study offers an original perspective and helps to fill the gap in the empirical research in this area while providing a valuable analytical framework for assessing fiscal policies and their impact on long-term economic growth.