Amyloid-β (1-40) (Aβ40) is implicated in mechanisms related to plaque destabilization and correlates with adverse outcomes in stable coronary artery disease. To determine the prognostic and reclassification value of baseline circulating levels of Aβ40 after adjustment for the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score, which is widely recommended for risk stratification in non–ST-segment elevation acute coronary syndrome (NSTE-ACS). Retrospective cohort study using data from 2 independent prospective cohorts, the Heidelberg study (n = 1145) and the validation multicenter international APACE (Advantageous Predictors of Acute Coronary Syndrome Evaluation) study (n = 734). Academic hospitals in 7 European countries. Patients with adjudicated NSTE-ACS followed for a median of 21.9 and 24.9 months in the Heidelberg and APACE studies, respectively. All-cause mortality was the primary end point. Amyloid-β (1-40) was associated with mortality after multivariate adjustment for age, sex, diabetes mellitus, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T and C-reactive protein, revascularization, and ACS type (Heidelberg cohort hazard ratio [HR] for 80th vs. 20th percentiles, 1.66 [95% CI, 1.06 to 2.61; P = 0.026]; APACE cohort HR, 1.50 [CI, 1.15 to 1.96; P = 0.003]). It was also associated with mortality after adjustment for the GRACE score (Heidelberg cohort HR for 80th vs. 20th percentiles, 1.11 [CI, 1.04 to 1.18; P = 0.001]; APACE cohort HR, 1.39 [CI, 1.02 to 1.88; P = 0.036]). Amyloid-β (1-40) correctly reclassified risk for death over the GRACE score (net reclassification index, 33.4% and 47.1% for the Heidelberg and APACE cohorts, respectively) (P < 0.05). At low concentrations of Aβ40, dose–response associations with mortality differed between cohorts, possibly because of varying blood preparations used to measure Aβ40. Circulating Aβ40 is a predictor of mortality and improves risk stratification of patients with NSTE-ACS over the GRACE score recommended by clinical guidelines. The clinical application of Aβ40 as a novel biomarker in NSTE-ACS should be further explored and validated. German Cardiac Society.

The ASTERIX project developed a number of novel methods suited to study small populations. The objective of this exercise was to evaluate the applicability and added value of novel methods to improve drug development in small populations, using real world drug development programmes as reported in European Public Assessment Reports. The applicability and added value of thirteen novel methods developed within ASTERIX were evaluated using data from 26 European Public Assessment Reports (EPARs) for orphan medicinal products, representative of rare medical conditions as predefined through six clusters. The novel methods included were ‘innovative trial designs’ (six methods), ‘level of evidence’ (one method), ‘study endpoints and statistical analysis’ (four methods), and ‘meta-analysis’ (two methods) and they were selected from the methods developed within ASTERIX based on their novelty; methods that discussed already available and applied strategies were not included for the purpose of this validation exercise. Pre-requisites for application in a study were systematized for each method, and for each main study in the selected EPARs it was assessed if all pre-requisites were met. This direct applicability using the actual study design was firstly assessed. Secondary, applicability and added value were explored allowing changes to study objectives and design, but without deviating from the context of the drug development plan. We evaluated whether differences in applicability and added value could be observed between the six predefined condition clusters. Direct applicability of novel methods appeared to be limited to specific selected cases. The applicability and added value of novel methods increased substantially when changes to the study setting within the context of drug development were allowed. In this setting, novel methods for extrapolation, sample size re-assessment, multi-armed trials, optimal sequential design for small sample sizes, Bayesian sample size re-estimation, dynamic borrowing through power priors and fall-back tests for co-primary endpoints showed most promise - applicable in more than 40% of evaluated EPARs in all clusters. Most of the novel methods were applicable to conditions in the cluster of chronic and progressive conditions, involving multiple systems/organs. Relatively fewer methods were applicable to acute conditions with single episodes. For the chronic clusters, Goal Attainment Scaling was found to be particularly applicable as opposed to other (non-chronic) clusters. Novel methods as developed in ASTERIX can improve drug development programs. Achieving optimal added value of these novel methods often requires consideration of the entire drug development program, rather than reconsideration of methods for a specific trial. The novel methods tested were mostly applicable in chronic conditions, and acute conditions with recurrent episodes.

Aims: The relationship between serum uric acid (SUA) and microvascular remodeling in humans remains largely unexplored. We assessed whether SUA provides additional information on the severity of microvascular remodeling than that obtained from the European Heart Score (HS), the patterns of microvascular remodeling associated with changes in SUA levels and the mediation by endothelial function and nitric oxide (NO) availability on this relationship. Methods: A total of 162 patients included in the microvascular dataset of the Italian Society of Hypertension with available information on SUA, media-to-lumen (M/L) ratio, media cross-sectional area (MCSA), endothelial function, NO availability and HS were included in the analysis. The top tertile of M/L ratio and MCSA were used to define severe microvascular remodeling. Results: A U-shaped association was observed between SUA and both M/L ratio and MCSA. Adjustment for HS did not affect these associations. SUA was able to reclassify a significant number of subjects without, and with, severe M/L ratio and MCSA remodeling over the HS alone. The microvascular remodeling associated with SUA levels presented a predominant hypertrophic pattern. SUA was inversely associated with endothelial function and NO availability. Structural equation modeling analysis controlling for the HS suggested that the association of SUA with M/L ratio and MCSA was mediated through changes in endothelial function and NO availability. Conclusions: The addition of SUA to the HS improves the identification of subjects with greater microvascular remodeling. The relationship between SUA and microvascular remodeling is mediated by endothelial function and NO availability.

When a meta-analysis consists of a few small trials that report zero events, accounting for heterogeneity in the (interval) estimation of the overall effect is challenging. Typically, we predefine meta-analytical methods to be employed. In practice, data poses restrictions that lead to deviations from the pre-planned analysis, such as the presence of zero events in at least one study arm. We aim to explore heterogeneity estimators behaviour in estimating the overall effect across different levels of sparsity of events. We performed a simulation study that consists of two evaluations. We considered an overall comparison of estimators unconditional on the number of observed zero cells and an additional one by conditioning on the number of observed zero cells. Estimators that performed modestly robust when (interval) estimating the overall treatment effect across a range of heterogeneity assumptions were the Sidik-Jonkman, Hartung-Makambi and improved Paul-Mandel. The relative performance of estimators did not materially differ between making a predefined or data-driven choice. Our investigations confirmed that heterogeneity in such settings cannot be estimated reliably. Estimators whose performance depends strongly on the presence of heterogeneity should be avoided. The choice of estimator does not need to depend on whether or not zero cells are observed.