Peripheral urban sprawl configures new, extensive conurbations that transcend current administrative boundaries. Land use planning, supported by the analysis of future scenarios, is a guide to achieve sustainability in large metropolitan areas. To understand how urban sprawl is consuming natural and agricultural land, this paper analyzes land use changes in the metropolis of Quito, considering a combination of urban planning, natural conservation and risk areas. Using the Dyna-CLUE model we simulate spatial demands for future land uses by 2050, based on two growth scenarios: the trend scenario (unrestricted growth) and the regulated scenario, which considers two parameters—a government proposal for urban expansion areas and laws that protect natural areas. Both scenarios show how urban expansion consumes agricultural and natural areas. This expansion is backed by urban policies which do not sufficiently account for conservation areas nor for risk areas. Therefore, these simulations suggest that planning should follow a more holistic approach that explicitly considers urban growth beyond current administrative limits, in what we refer to as the New Metropolitan Area of Quito.

The Metropolitan Area of Quito has experienced exponential growth in recent decades, especially in peri-urban sectors. The literature has described this process as “urban sprawl”, a phenomenon that is changing the landscape by increasing land consumption and forming conurbations with the nearest populated centers. This article proposes a new, broader and more complex metropolitan structure for the metropolis of Quito, the linking of neighboring and conurbed areas to the form a new metropolitan area based on the case study of the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ). This new metropolitan area identification considers the interpretation of satellite images and the classification of land uses, highlighting the main urban growth areas located outside, but contiguous to the administrative limit of the DMQ, over a period of 19 years (1998 to 2017), the demographics analysis, particularly the densification of new urban peripheral areas close to the DMQ border and the mobility links of population, goods and services between human settlements that allows the configuration of urban corridors and the integration of the territory. The main findings evaluated are the need to evaluate urban planning strategies aimed at sustainable development.

Se estima que el cambio en los patrones globales del clima así como su dinámica natural pueden ocasionar una alta incidencia en los fenómenos extremos y en consecuencia aumentar los niveles de riesgos. En este estudio se revisan los principales desastres climáticos e hidrometeorológicos que han afectado el país entre 1984-2013, a partir de los decretos que declaran zonas de catástrofe (Ley 16.282) por temporales de lluvia, sequías, heladas, nevazones, inundaciones y movimientos en masa desencadenados por temperaturas y precipitaciones extremas. Por otro lado, información de exposición, vulnerabilidad y resiliencia es integrada en un índice de riesgo climático a nivel comunal. De acuerdo a los resultados obtenidos las comunas del país que presentan mayor riesgo climático son las ubicadas en el litoral de la

Landslide hazard is usually incorporated into land-use planning as susceptibility zoning. Multiple-variable models have been widely used for susceptibility zoning due to their advantage to use different performance techniques to improve their prediction capacity. In Chile, the incorporation of landslide hazard into land-use planning instruments lacks a frame of reference that defines the susceptibility zoning and potential methodologies to be used. To overcome this lack of reference, this study assessed the applicability of Generalized Linear Model (GLM) and Generalized Additive Model (GAM) models in the establishment of susceptibility zoning guidelines. The application of both models identified the areas-prone to landslides in enough detail for a scale <1:15.000. The prediction of these zones was improved after spatial k-fold cross-validation, which indicated a slight advantage of the GAM model over the GLM model in susceptibility prediction capacity. The resulting zoning areas for low, moderate, high and very high susceptibility were very similar for the GLM and GAM models.

La Isla de Calor Urbano (ICU) es la principal característica del clima urbano y se define como la diferencia entre la temperatura urbana y la temperatura rural. Su existencia se explica por el diseño y materiales de construcción de la ciudad, superficies impermeables y no evapotranspirantes, y sus efectos son de diversa índole. La magnitud e intensidad de la ICU depende, a su vez, del tamaño de la ciudad y por ello, del volumen de población concentrada espacialmente. El objetivo de esta investigación es proponer una metodología que permita estimar la intensidad máxima de la ICU presente y futura mediante una aproximación de múltiples modelos (climáticos y de usos de suelo) y considerando los efectos del cambio climático. Los resultados demuestran que la ICU promedio de las principales ciudades chilenas analizadas es consistente con valores de estudios internacionales, destacando el caso del Gran Santiago que llegaría a tener una ICU mayor 10 ºC.