Peripheral urban sprawl configures new, extensive conurbations that transcend current administrative boundaries. Land use planning, supported by the analysis of future scenarios, is a guide to achieve sustainability in large metropolitan areas. To understand how urban sprawl is consuming natural and agricultural land, this paper analyzes land use changes in the metropolis of Quito, considering a combination of urban planning, natural conservation and risk areas. Using the Dyna-CLUE model we simulate spatial demands for future land uses by 2050, based on two growth scenarios: the trend scenario (unrestricted growth) and the regulated scenario, which considers two parameters—a government proposal for urban expansion areas and laws that protect natural areas. Both scenarios show how urban expansion consumes agricultural and natural areas. This expansion is backed by urban policies which do not sufficiently account for conservation areas nor for risk areas. Therefore, these simulations suggest that planning should follow a more holistic approach that explicitly considers urban growth beyond current administrative limits, in what we refer to as the New Metropolitan Area of Quito.

The Metropolitan Area of Quito has experienced exponential growth in recent decades, especially in peri-urban sectors. The literature has described this process as “urban sprawl”, a phenomenon that is changing the landscape by increasing land consumption and forming conurbations with the nearest populated centers. This article proposes a new, broader and more complex metropolitan structure for the metropolis of Quito, the linking of neighboring and conurbed areas to the form a new metropolitan area based on the case study of the Metropolitan District of Quito (DMQ). This new metropolitan area identification considers the interpretation of satellite images and the classification of land uses, highlighting the main urban growth areas located outside, but contiguous to the administrative limit of the DMQ, over a period of 19 years (1998 to 2017), the demographics analysis, particularly the densification of new urban peripheral areas close to the DMQ border and the mobility links of population, goods and services between human settlements that allows the configuration of urban corridors and the integration of the territory. The main findings evaluated are the need to evaluate urban planning strategies aimed at sustainable development.