Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal neurodegenerative disease with a lifetime risk of one in 350 people and an unmet need for disease-modifying therapies. We conducted a cross-ancestry genome-wide association study (GWAS) including 29,612 patients with ALS and 122,656 controls, which identified 15 risk loci. When combined with 8,953 individuals with whole-genome sequencing (6,538 patients, 2,415 controls) and a large cortex-derived expression quantitative trait locus (eQTL) dataset (MetaBrain), analyses revealed locus-specific genetic architectures in which we prioritized genes either through rare variants, short tandem repeats or regulatory effects. ALS-associated risk loci were shared with multiple traits within the neurodegenerative spectrum but with distinct enrichment patterns across brain regions and cell types. Of the environmental and lifestyle risk factors obtained from the literature, Mendelian randomization analyses indicated a causal role for high cholesterol levels. The combination of all ALS-associated signals reveals a role for perturbations in vesicle-mediated transport and autophagy and provides evidence for cell-autonomous disease initiation in glutamatergic neurons.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a relentlessly progressive, fatal motor neuron disease with a variable natural history. There are no accurate models that predict the disease course and outcomes, which complicates risk assessment and counselling for individual patients, stratification of patients for trials, and timing of interventions. We therefore aimed to develop and validate a model for predicting a composite survival endpoint for individual patients with ALS. We obtained data for patients from 14 specialised ALS centres (each one designated as a cohort) in Belgium, France, the Netherlands, Germany, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Switzerland, and the UK. All patients were diagnosed in the centres after excluding other diagnoses and classified according to revised El Escorial criteria. We assessed 16 patient characteristics as potential predictors of a composite survival outcome (time between onset of symptoms and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day, tracheostomy, or death) and applied backward elimination with bootstrapping in the largest population-based dataset for predictor selection. Data were gathered on the day of diagnosis or as soon as possible thereafter. Predictors that were selected in more than 70% of the bootstrap resamples were used to develop a multivariable Royston-Parmar model for predicting the composite survival outcome in individual patients. We assessed the generalisability of the model by estimating heterogeneity of predictive accuracy across external populations (ie, populations not used to develop the model) using internal-external cross-validation, and quantified the discrimination using the concordance (c) statistic (area under the receiver operator characteristic curve) and calibration using a calibration slope. Data were collected between Jan 1, 1992, and Sept 22, 2016 (the largest data-set included data from 1936 patients). The median follow-up time was 97·5 months (IQR 52·9-168·5). Eight candidate predictors entered the prediction model: bulbar versus non-bulbar onset (univariable hazard ratio [HR] 1·71, 95% CI 1·63-1·79), age at onset (1·03, 1·03-1·03), definite versus probable or possible ALS (1·47, 1·39-1·55), diagnostic delay (0·52, 0·51-0·53), forced vital capacity (HR 0·99, 0·99-0·99), progression rate (6·33, 5·92-6·76), frontotemporal dementia (1·34, 1·20-1·50), and presence of a C9orf72 repeat expansion (1·45, 1·31-1·61), all p<0·0001. The c statistic for external predictive accuracy of the model was 0·78 (95% CI 0·77-0·80; 95% prediction interval [PI] 0·74-0·82) and the calibration slope was 1·01 (95% CI 0·95-1·07; 95% PI 0·83-1·18). The model was used to define five groups with distinct median predicted (SE) and observed (SE) times in months from symptom onset to the composite survival outcome: very short 17·7 (0·20), 16·5 (0·23); short 25·3 (0·06), 25·2 (0·35); intermediate 32·2 (0·09), 32·8 (0·46); long 43·7 (0·21), 44·6 (0·74); and very long 91·0 (1·84), 85·6 (1·96). We have developed an externally validated model to predict survival without tracheostomy and non-invasive ventilation for more than 23 h per day in European patients with ALS. This model could be applied to individualised patient management, counselling, and future trial design, but to maximise the benefit and prevent harm it is intended to be used by medical doctors only. Netherlands ALS Foundation.

Heterozygous missense mutations in the N-terminal motor or coiled-coil domains of the kinesin family member 5A (KIF5A) gene cause monogenic spastic paraplegia (HSP10) and Charcot-Marie-Tooth disease type 2 (CMT2). Moreover, heterozygous de novo frame-shift mutations in the C-terminal domain of KIF5A are associated with neonatal intractable myoclonus, a neurodevelopmental syndrome. These findings, together with the observation that many of the disease genes associated with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis disrupt cytoskeletal function and intracellular transport, led us to hypothesize that mutations in KIF5A are also a cause of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Using whole exome sequencing followed by rare variant analysis of 426 patients with familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis and 6137 control subjects, we detected an enrichment of KIF5A splice-site mutations in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (2/426 compared to 0/6137 in controls; P = 4.2 × 10⁻³), both located in a hot-spot in the C-terminus of the protein and predicted to affect splicing exon 27. We additionally show co-segregation with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis of two canonical splice-site mutations in two families. Investigation of lymphoblast cell lines from patients with KIF5A splice-site mutations revealed the loss of mutant RNA expression and suggested haploinsufficiency as the most probable underlying molecular mechanism. Furthermore, mRNA sequencing of a rare non-synonymous missense mutation (predicting p.Arg1007Gly) located in the C-terminus of the protein shortly upstream of the splice donor of exon 27 revealed defective KIF5A pre-mRNA splicing in respective patient-derived cell lines owing to abrogation of the donor site. Finally, the non-synonymous single nucleotide variant rs113247976 (minor allele frequency = 1.00% in controls, n = 6137), also located in the C-terminal region [p.(Pro986Leu) in exon 26], was significantly enriched in familial amyotrophic lateral sclerosis patients (minor allele frequency = 3.40%; P = 1.28 × 10⁻⁷). Our study demonstrates that mutations located specifically in a C-terminal hotspot of KIF5A can cause a classical amyotrophic lateral sclerosis phenotype, and underline the involvement of intracellular transport processes in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis pathogenesis.