The assessment of riverine fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and metals in surface waters of permafrost-affected regions is crucially important for constraining adequate models of ecosystem functioning under various climate change scenarios. In this regard, the largest permafrost peatland territory on the Earth, the Western Siberian Lowland (WSL) presents a unique opportunity of studying possible future changes in biogeochemical cycles because it lies within a south–north gradient of climate, vegetation, and permafrost that ranges from the permafrost-free boreal to the Arctic tundra with continuous permafrost at otherwise similar relief and bedrocks. By applying a “substituting space for time” scenario, the WSL south-north gradient may serve as a model for future changes due to permafrost boundary shift and climate warming. Here we measured export fluxes (yields) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), major cations, macro- and micro- nutrients, and trace elements in 32 rivers, draining the WSL across a latitudinal transect from the permafrost-free to the continuous permafrost zone. We aimed at quantifying the impact of climate warming (water temperature rise and permafrost boundary shift) on DOC, nutrient and metal in rivers using a “substituting space for time” approach. We demonstrate that, contrary to common expectations, the climate warming and permafrost thaw in the WSL will likely decrease the riverine export of organic C and many elements. Based on the latitudinal pattern of riverine export, in the case of a northward shift in the permafrost zones, the DOC, P, N, Si, Fe, divalent heavy metals, trivalent and tetravalent hydrolysates are likely to decrease the yields by a factor of 2–5. The DIC, Ca, SO₄, Sr, Ba, Mo, and U are likely to increase their yields by a factor of 2–3. Moreover, B, Li, K, Rb, Cs, N-NO₃, Mg, Zn, As, Sb, Rb, and Cs may be weakly affected by the permafrost boundary migration (change of yield by a factor of 1.5 to 2.0). We conclude that modeling of C and element cycle in the Arctic and subarctic should be region-specific and that neglecting huge areas of permafrost peatlands might produce sizeable bias in our predictions of climate change impact.

Currently, dynamic processes, affecting runoff in catchments, are poorly understood. Among all the elements of water balance calculations, the streamflow is the most accurately measured and largely reflects the current moisture content of the active layer. Devices for automatic measurement of water level and temperature of soil, water and air were installed in four small catchments with different climatic conditions. The studied catchments are located in a zone of oligotrophic swamps of the southern taiga, a zone of hilly swamps of the forest-tundra, a foothill zone of the southern taiga, and a mountain-glacial basin. Runoff in the mountain-glacier basin is determined using an acoustic level meter of the water flow. As a result: Site 1) We have revealed a change in the water-physical properties of the active layer in the marshy catchment, which resulted from the 2012 drought; Site 2) We have shown the linkages of the moisture content of the soil above the water table with extreme water discharge in active watersheds; Site 3) The increase in autumn runoff is due to thawing of seasonal permafrost and snow-melt in the tundra; Site 4) In the mountain-glacier basin, our studies are at an initial stage.

The scientific novelty of the relevance of this study is caused by the fact that for the effective development and use of space, an integral criterion is needed, calculated on the basis of spatially distributed data, characterizin the local hydrological and climatic conditions of growth, formed under the influence of landscape conditions. The aim of the work is to develop and verify a method for assessing the quality of land based on the results of hydrological and climatic modeling of the stages of humidification by L. G. Ramensky. The lands with moisture scale 55-70 were accepted as the most suitable for agroindustrial use. The studied territory, even within the same agricultural zone, is very heterogeneous, with a mosaic distribution of moisture levels. Unfavorable technological properties of land – high waterlogging, small-contour fields increase the cost of their processing, making agriculture in modern conditions low-profitable. For agricultural zones of the Tomsk region, according to the described method, the calculation of moisture scale was performed. A comparison of the estimates of land suitability based on the results of hydrological and climatic modeling of moisture scale with those previously obtained for agricultural zones of the Tomsk region showed good convergence for 8 zones out of 10. This allows us to consider the calculation of L. G. Ramensky's moisture scale as a working tool for optimizing land management. It should be noted that the use of the SRTM-height matrix, due to its inherent disadvantages, does not allow performing a fully adequate on-farm land assessment. It is necessary to use better digital terrain models. The received assessments of the quality of land resources confirm that high-quality land resources in the Tomsk region are very limited and appropriate efforts should be made to preserve them. In particular, the least productive arable land should be transferred to hayfields, and distant unused agricultural land to forest plantations with valuable tree species.

This article shows a possibility of calculating types of vegetation cover according to climatic data and local landscape parameters. The variety of growing conditions of different relief forms is accounted for on the basis of a method of hydro-climatic calculations combined with moisture values of the L.G. Ramensky scale.

A method is proposed for evaluating a dimensionless parameter reflecting the landscape conditions of runoff formation in the method of hydroclimatic calculations. This method allows the hydrological characteristic of landscape to be evaluated at different stages of hydromorphic transformation. The determination of the dimensionless parameter by landscape profile laid through Kruglyi Riam—a growth center of the Bakcharskoe Bog—is based on the known values of field and maximum moisture capacity of the active layer of soil cover.