The assessment of riverine fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and metals in surface waters of permafrost-affected regions is crucially important for constraining adequate models of ecosystem functioning under various climate change scenarios. In this regard, the largest permafrost peatland territory on the Earth, the Western Siberian Lowland (WSL) presents a unique opportunity of studying possible future changes in biogeochemical cycles because it lies within a south–north gradient of climate, vegetation, and permafrost that ranges from the permafrost-free boreal to the Arctic tundra with continuous permafrost at otherwise similar relief and bedrocks. By applying a “substituting space for time” scenario, the WSL south-north gradient may serve as a model for future changes due to permafrost boundary shift and climate warming. Here we measured export fluxes (yields) of dissolved organic carbon (DOC), major cations, macro- and micro- nutrients, and trace elements in 32 rivers, draining the WSL across a latitudinal transect from the permafrost-free to the continuous permafrost zone. We aimed at quantifying the impact of climate warming (water temperature rise and permafrost boundary shift) on DOC, nutrient and metal in rivers using a “substituting space for time” approach. We demonstrate that, contrary to common expectations, the climate warming and permafrost thaw in the WSL will likely decrease the riverine export of organic C and many elements. Based on the latitudinal pattern of riverine export, in the case of a northward shift in the permafrost zones, the DOC, P, N, Si, Fe, divalent heavy metals, trivalent and tetravalent hydrolysates are likely to decrease the yields by a factor of 2–5. The DIC, Ca, SO₄, Sr, Ba, Mo, and U are likely to increase their yields by a factor of 2–3. Moreover, B, Li, K, Rb, Cs, N-NO₃, Mg, Zn, As, Sb, Rb, and Cs may be weakly affected by the permafrost boundary migration (change of yield by a factor of 1.5 to 2.0). We conclude that modeling of C and element cycle in the Arctic and subarctic should be region-specific and that neglecting huge areas of permafrost peatlands might produce sizeable bias in our predictions of climate change impact.

Despite the importance of thermokarst (thaw) lakes of the subarctic zone in regulating greenhouse gas exchange with the atmosphere and the flux of metal pollutants and micro-nutrients to the ocean, the inventory of lake distribution and stock of solutes for the permafrost-affected zone are not available. We quantified the abundance of thermokarst lakes in the continuous, discontinuous, and sporadic permafrost zones of the western Siberian Lowland (WSL) using Landsat-8 scenes collected over the summers of 2013 and 2014. In a territory of 105 million ha, the total number of lakes >0.5 ha is 727,700, with a total surface area of 5.97 million ha, yielding an average lake coverage of 5.69% of the territory. Small lakes (0.5–1.0 ha) constitute about one third of the total number of lakes in the permafrost-bearing zone of WSL, yet their surface area does not exceed 2.9% of the total area of lakes in WSL. The latitudinal pattern of lake number and surface coverage follows the local topography and dominant landscape zones. The role of thermokarst lakes in dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and most trace element storage in the territory of WSL is non-negligible compared to that of rivers. The annual lake storage across the WSL of DOC, Cd, Pb, Cr, and Al constitutes 16%, 34%, 37%, 57%, and 73%, respectively, of their annual delivery by WSL rivers to the Arctic Ocean from the same territory. However, given that the concentrations of DOC and metals in the smallest lakes (<0.5 ha) are much higher than those in the medium and large lakes, the contribution of small lakes to the overall carbon and metal budget may be comparable to, or greater than, their contribution to the water storage. As such, observations at high spatial resolution (<0.5 ha) are needed to constrain the reservoirs and the mobility of carbon and metals in aquatic systems. To upscale the DOC and metal storage in lakes of the whole subarctic, the remote sensing should be coupled with hydrochemical measurements in aquatic systems of boreal plains.

The Circumpolar North has been changing rapidly within the last decades, and the socioeconomic systems of the Eurasian Arctic and Siberia in particular have displayed the most dramatic changes. Here, anthropogenic drivers of environmental change such as migration and industrialization are added to climate-induced changes in the natural environment such as permafrost thawing and increased frequency of extreme events. Understanding and adapting to both types of changes are important to local and indigenous peoples in the Arctic and for the wider global community due to transboundary connectivity. As local and indigenous peoples, decision-makers and scientists perceive changes and impacts differently and often fail to communicate efficiently to respond to changes adequately, we convened a meeting of the three groups in Salekhard in 2017. The outcomes of the meeting include perceptions of how the three groups each perceive the main issues affecting health and well-being and recommendations for working together better.

Thermokarst lakes and ponds formed due to thawing of frozen peat in high-latitude lowlands are very dynamic and environmentally important aquatic systems that play a key role in controlling C emission to atmosphere and organic carbon (OC), nutrient, and metal lateral export to rivers and streams. However, despite the importance of thermokarst lakes in assessing biogeochemical functioning of permafrost peatlands in response to climate warming and permafrost thaw, spatial (lake size, permafrost zone) and temporal (seasonal) variations in thermokarst lake hydrochemistry remain very poorly studied. Here, we used unprecedented spatial coverage (isolated, sporadic, discontinuous, and continuous permafrost zone of the western Siberia Lowland) of 67 lakes ranging in size from 10² to 10⁵ m² for sampling during three main hydrological periods of the year: spring flood, summer baseflow, and autumn time before ice-on. We demonstrate a systematic, all-season decrease in the concentration of dissolved OC (DOC) and an increase in SO₄, N-NO₃, and some metal (Mn, Co, Cu, Mo, Sr, U, Sb) concentration with an increase in lake surface area, depending on the type of the permafrost zone. These features are interpreted as a combination of (i) OC and organically bound metal leaching from peat at the lake shore, via abrasion and delivery of these compounds by suprapermafrost flow, and (ii) deep groundwater feeding of large lakes (especially visible in the continuous permafrost zone). Analyses of lake water chemical composition across the permafrost gradient allowed a first-order empirical prediction of lake hydrochemical changes in the case of climate warming and permafrost thaw, employing a substituting space for time scenario. The permafrost boundary shift northward may decrease the concentrations and pools of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), Li, B, Mg, K, Ca, Sr, Ba, Ni, Cu, As, Rb, Mo, Sr, Y, Zr, rare Earth elements (REEs), Th, and U by a factor of 2–5 in the continuous permafrost zone, but increase the concentrations of CH₄, DOC, NH₄, Cd, Sb, and Pb by a factor of 2–3. In contrast, the shift of the sporadic to isolated zone may produce a 2–5-fold decrease in CH₄, DOC, NH₄, Al, P, Ti, Cr, Ni, Ga, Zr, Nb, Cs, REEs, Hf, Th, and U. The exact magnitude of this response will, however, be strongly seasonally dependent, with the largest effects observable during baseflow seasons.