This paper presents a methodology for modelling medium term (annual to decadal) cross shore beach profile change and erosion. The statistical-process based approach (SPA) presented here combines detailed statistical modelling of offshore storm climate with a process based morphodynamic model (XBeach), to assess, and quantify morphodynamic variability of cross shore beach profiles. Until now, the use of process based models has been limited to simulations at storm event timescales. This methodology therefore represents the first application of a fully process based model in longer term simulations, as such, the approach requires simulation of post-storm beach profile recovery as well as individual event impacts. Narrabeen Beach, NSW, Australia was used as a case study for application of the technique due to the availability of an extensive set of storm and beach profile data. The results presented here demonstrate that the methodology produces encouraging results for determining medium term beach profile variability and erosion

As storm-driven coastal flooding increases under climate change, wetlands such as saltmarshes are held as a nature-based solution. Yet evidence supporting wetlands’ storm protection role in estuaries—where both waves and upstream surge drive coastal flooding—remains scarce. Here we address this gap using numerical hydrodynamic models within eight contextually diverse estuaries, simulating storms of varying intensity and coupling flood predictions to damage valuation. Saltmarshes reduced flooding across all studied estuaries and particularly for the largest—100 year—storms, for which they mitigated average flood extents by 35% and damages by 37% ($8.4 M). Across all storm scenarios, wetlands delivered mean annual damage savings of $2.7 M per estuary, exceeding annualised values of better studied wetland services such as carbon storage. Spatial decomposition of processes revealed flood mitigation arose from both localised wave attenuation and estuary-scale surge attenuation, with the latter process dominating: mean flood reductions were 17% in the sheltered top third of estuaries, compared to 8% near wave-exposed estuary mouths. Saltmarshes therefore play a generalised role in mitigating storm flooding and associated costs in estuaries via multi-scale processes. Ecosystem service modelling must integrate processes operating across scales or risk grossly underestimating the value of nature-based solutions to the growing threat of storm-driven coastal flooding.

This contribution investigates the impact of the deployment of tidal stream turbine arrays on sediment dynamics and seabed morphology in the Pentland Firth, Scotland. The Pentland Firth is arguably the premier tidal stream site in the world and engineering developments are progressing rapidly. Therefore understanding and minimising impacts is vital to ensure the successful development of this nascent industry. Here a 3 dimensional coupled hydrodynamic and sediment transport numerical model is used to investigate the impact on sediment transport and morphodynamics of tidal stream arrays. The aim of the work presented here is twofold: firstly to provide prediction of the changes caused by multiple tidal stream turbine array developments to some of the unique sandy seabed environments in the Pentland Firth and secondly as a case study to determine the relationship between impacts of individual tidal stream farms and cumulative impacts of multiple farms. Due to connectivity in tidal flow it has been hypothesized that the cumulative impact of multiple arrays on sediment dynamics might be non-linear. This work suggests that, for the Pentland Firth, this is not the case: the cumulative impact of the 4 currently proposed arrays in the area is equal to the sum of the impacts of the individual arrays. Additionally, array implementation only has minimal effect on the baseline morphodynamics of the large sandbanks in the region, smaller more local sandbanks were not considered. These two results are extremely positive for tidal stream developers in the region since it removes the burden of assessing cumulative impact from individual developers and suggests that impacts to sub-sea morphodynamics is insignificant and hence is unlikely to be an impediment to development in the Pentland Firth with the currently proposed levels of extraction