China’s massive wave of urbanization may be threatened by land subsidence. Using a spaceborne synthetic aperture radar interferometry technique, we provided a systematic assessment of land subsidence in all of China’s major cities from 2015 to 2022. Of the examined urban lands, 45% are subsiding faster than 3 millimeters per year, and 16% are subsiding faster than 10 millimeters per year, affecting 29 and 7% of the urban population, respectively. The subsidence appears to be associated with a range of factors such as groundwater withdrawal and the weight of buildings. By 2120, 22 to 26% of China’s coastal lands will have a relative elevation lower than sea level, hosting 9 to 11% of the coastal population, because of the combined effect of city subsidence and sea-level rise. Our results underscore the necessity of enhancing protective measures to mitigate potential damages from subsidence.

Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) play a critical role in hydrologic and hydraulic modeling. Flood inundation mapping is highly dependent on the accuracy of DEMs. Various vertical differences exist among open access DEMs as they use various observation satellites and algorithms. The problem is particularly acute in small, flat coastal cities. Thus, it is necessary to assess the differences of the input of DEMs in flood simulation and to reduce anomalous errors of DEMs. In this study, we first conducted urban flood simulation in the Huangpu River Basin in Shanghai by using the LISFLOOD-FP hydrodynamic model and six open-access DEMs (SRTM, MERIT, CoastalDEM, GDEM, NASADEM, and AW3D30), and analyzed the differences in the results of the flood inundation simulations. Then, we processed the DEMs by using two statistically based methods and compared the results with those using the original DEMs. The results show that: (1) the flood inundation mappings using the six original DEMs are significantly different under the same simulation conditions—this indicates that only using a single DEM dataset may lead to bias of flood mapping and is not adequate for high confidence analysis of exposure and flood management; and (2) the accuracy of a DEM corrected by the Dixon criterion for predicting inundation extent is improved, in addition to reducing errors in extreme water depths—this indicates that the corrected datasets have some performance improvement in the accuracy of flood simulation. A freely available, accurate, high-resolution DEM is needed to support robust flood mapping. Flood-related researchers, practitioners, and other stakeholders should pay attention to the uncertainty caused by DEM quality.

The interaction between storm surge and concurrent precipitation is poorly understood in many coastal regions. This paper investigates the potential compound effects from these two flooding drivers along the coast of China for the first time by using the most comprehensive records of storm surge and precipitation. Statistically significant dependence between flooding drivers exists at the majority of locations that are analysed, but the strength of the correlation varies spatially and temporally and depending on how extreme events are defined. In general, we find higher dependence at the south-eastern tide gauges (TGs) (latitude < 30^∘ N) compared to the northern TGs. Seasonal variations in the dependence are also evident. Overall there are more sites with significant dependence in the tropical cyclone (TC) season, especially in the summer. Accounting for past sea level rise further increases the dependence between flooding drivers, and future sea level rise will hence likely lead to an increase in the frequency of compound events. We also find notable differences in the meteorological patterns associated with events where both drivers are extreme versus events where only one driver is extreme. Events with both extreme drivers at south-eastern TG sites are caused by low-pressure systems with similar characteristics across locations, including high precipitable water content (PWC) and strong winds that generate high storm surge. Based on historical disaster damages records of Hong Kong, events with both extreme drivers account for the vast majority of damages and casualties, compared to univariate flooding events, where only one flooding driver occurred. Given the large coastal population and low capacity of drainage systems in many Chinese urban coastal areas, these findings highlight the necessity to incorporate compound flooding and its potential changes in a warming climate into risk assessments, urban planning, and the design of coastal infrastructure and flood defences.